Soriano Rejects 5 years 70 Million from Nats

[Moose Milligan]

Just heard on the news that this isn't true, apparently the Nats are coming out and denying this. They want Soriano back for next year.

[geschinger]

Was he not a hard worked or not in great shape from 2001-2005?

When a player who is 30 has a year that vastly outshines every other year of their career, its usually a sign of a fluke. If you sign Soriano expecting him to repeat his 2006 numbers, you're going to be very, very unhappy. There is no chance of him doing so over the course of the contract. He may have 1 or 2 big years, but his numbers over the course of the contract will be a lot closer to the low .800 OPS guy he's been the past few years than the .900+ OPS guy he was this season.

I'll go out on a very short limb and say that if the Orioles do sign Soriano, that they will not make the playoffs during any year of his contract. He alone (and he'd be the only major piece we could afford to add and still address the other things neccesary to compete like BP and bench) is not enough to push us into the playoffs in the next 2 seasons, and by the time that the rest of the team is deep enough to compete, his albatross contract for diminishing performance at age 33-35 will prevent the team from adding the one piece that they do need to get over the edge.

Spot on. I couldn't agree more with what you say here.

[geschinger]

Just heard on the news that this isn't true, apparently the Nats are coming out and denying this. They want Soriano back for next year.

Damage control... Rijo wasn't supposed to open his mouth.

[nadecir]

I hear what you are saying but in 3 years Tejada, Mora, Hernandez and Gibbons contracts will all be up. In 3 years Bedard will be free agent eligible.

That's exactly why, #1, you trade the vets, like Tejada, who most likely will be in decline in 2-3 years. The Orioles should move them now because these players are near their maximum value. Don't wait too long to move them, like we have done in the past with Javy Lopez, Melvin Mora and Rodrigo Lopez. Trade for an abundance of talent that most likely will be in its prime in 2-3 years.

And #2, use the money you save by not signing Soriano to extend Bedard now.

[DrungoHazewood]

Was he not a hard worked or not in great shape from 2001-2005?

When a player who is 30 has a year that vastly outshines every other year of their career, its usually a sign of a fluke. If you sign Soriano expecting him to repeat his 2006 numbers, you're going to be very, very unhappy. There is no chance of him doing so over the course of the contract. He may have 1 or 2 big years, but his numbers over the course of the contract will be a lot closer to the low .800 OPS guy he's been the past few years than the .900+ OPS guy he was this season.

I'll go out on a very short limb and say that if the Orioles do sign Soriano, that they will not make the playoffs during any year of his contract. He alone (and he'd be the only major piece we could afford to add and still address the other things neccesary to compete like BP and bench) is not enough to push us into the playoffs in the next 2 seasons, and by the time that the rest of the team is deep enough to compete, his albatross contract for diminishing performance at age 33-35 will prevent the team from adding the one piece that they do need to get over the edge.

I agree with all of this, too, but I'm not quite so firm in my convictions as you and geschinger are. I think he'll be hard pressed to duplicate his 2006. He'll probably be a mid-.800s OPS guy over most of his contract. He'll probably be very overpaid by 2010 or 2011. The Orioles may not make the playoffs during his hypothetical tenure here.

But I'm less convinced that one $16M contract will cripple the franchise and prevent the team from getting over the edge.

Look at the Tigers. They have something like $25M or $30M a year tied up in an .800 OPS outfielder and a 34-year-old catcher with a mid-.700s OPS. They're just like us - their fate was tied to the success or failure of their young pitchers, and despite only middling success from their big investments they're likely to be in the World Series this year.

[Fan4Life]

The time to overpay for a player like Soriano is when you are very close to making a run for a championship, not when your team finishes 22 games under .500. In a few years, when Soriano won't be performing at near the level he is being paid, the Orioles young pitching may be in its prime. Then Soriano's contract most likely will be an albatross contract that prevents you from getting that one or two players you need to put you over the top. In a few years, when our young pitching jells, it may be the exact time to overspend for that player who will put you over the top. That time is not now however.

Soriano is the wrong player at the wrong time for the Orioles in 2007.

Couple things here....

1) Our young pitching isn't a guarantee to do anything

2) Every other team in MLB trade their high salaried players for younger talent when they realize they aren't going anywhere.. why is it that ONLY the O's get saddled with an Albatross for such a signing.

[DrungoHazewood]

2) Every other team in MLB trade their high salaried players for younger talent when they realize they aren't going anywhere.. why is it that ONLY the O's get saddled with an Albatross for such a signing.

That's quite an exaggeration. The Angels held onto Erstad. The Mariners held onto Sexson and Beltre and Ichiro and Ibanez. The Cubs held onto Ramirez, Eyre, Howry, Dempster, and Jones. The Nats held onto Soriano. The Indians kept Boone and Blake and Byrd.

[Fan4Life]

That's quite an exaggeration. The Angels held onto Erstad. The Mariners held onto Sexson and Beltre and Ichiro and Ibanez. The Cubs held onto Ramirez, Eyre, Howry, Dempster, and Jones. The Nats held onto Soriano. The Indians kept Boone and Blake and Byrd.

Hmm... so you're saying all of these teams had an interest in moving these players but couldn't because of their salary?

[DrungoHazewood]

Hmm... so you're saying all of these teams had an interest in moving these players but couldn't because of their salary?

Some. Dumping a bad contract isn't easy, and you always have to give up something. The Phillies got out from under Abreu's "bad" contract... and they got back four low-level, crappy prospects for their future HOFer.

[Frobby]

Some. Dumping a bad contract isn't easy, and you always have to give up something. The Phillies got out from under Abreu's "bad" contract... and they got back four low-level, crappy prospects for their future HOFer.

This is going off on a tangent, but do you really think Abreu is a future Hall of Famer? I don't.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is going off on a tangent, but do you really think Abreu is a future Hall of Famer? I don't.

Depends on how he ages, but I think he has a good shot. Well, logically, that is. The voters have never given him much respect. That may change now that he's a Yank.

Abreu is currently 32nd all time in on-base percentage. That's something. Out of the thousands of players in major league history with careers of decent length only 31 have ever made outs less frequently than Abreu. Throw in very good percentage basestealing, good power, good average, lot of doubles, decent glove, scores 100 runs like clockwork, five years with MVP votes...

Let's say he has five more years like this year - .290/.400/.450 or thereabouts. He'll end up with 500 doubles, 250 homers, 300 steals, 1300 or 1400 runs, 1000 RBI. He'll end up with 100+ WARP3 unless he craters in the next couple years.

He's this generation's Dwight Evans - he does everything pretty well and consistently well, but nothing exceptionally well (except maybe draw walks). And the voters largely ignored both of them for awards, accolades, and All Star games because it's easier to focus on guys like Ryan Howard who do one thing great, but many things poorly. But Abreu's better than Dewey was, and he didn't wait until he was 30 to really get consistently good.

[utvolzac]

We hardly wasted our "entire offsesason" on Konerko, we made him an offer and he turned it down. we then went on to sign the best FA catcher on the market, traded for a guy that led to a great comeback year, picked up a solid pitcher (who deserves more love on this board) ...and LaTroy Hawkins.

So one of those didn't work out. But last offseason this team was more active than it had been in a long while. We hardly spent our entire offseason on Konerko.

I'd hardly call last off-season a slam dunk. The only real creative move they made was the Patterson deal. We took a chance on a younger player with upside, something we should be doing more of in the future.

Hernandez fell into our laps. There really wasn't any other competition to sign him after the Mets traded for Lo Duca.

Benson was a push since Julio was going nowhere in Baltimore. Although if Maine keeps pitching like he has been, we may regret this trade. Either way, Benson wasn't spectacular, but he was solid this year.

Lets not forget how awful an idea it was to go into the season with Conine/Millar as your starting 1Bman. If they thought this was the best option, then they are nuts. Konerko wasn't a realistic option for us, but we could have easily had Adrian Gonzalez or tried for another young 1bman who was blocked in their system.

Until the FO finally fills the major needs of this team that have dogged us for the last umpteen years (SP, 1B, LF), to me they haven't been successful.

[Frobby]

Depends on how he ages, but I think he has a good shot. Well, logically, that is. The voters have never given him much respect. That may change now that he's a Yank.

Abreu is currently 32nd all time in on-base percentage. That's something. Out of the thousands of players in major league history with careers of decent length only 31 have ever made outs less frequently than Abreu. Throw in very good percentage basestealing, good power, good average, lot of doubles, decent glove, scores 100 runs like clockwork, five years with MVP votes...

Let's say he has five more years like this year - .290/.400/.450 or thereabouts. He'll end up with 500 doubles, 250 homers, 300 steals, 1300 or 1400 runs, 1000 RBI. He'll end up with 100+ WARP3 unless he craters in the next couple years.

He's this generation's Dwight Evans - he does everything pretty well and consistently well, but nothing exceptionally well (except maybe draw walks). And the voters largely ignored both of them for awards, accolades, and All Star games because it's easier to focus on guys like Ryan Howard who do one thing great, but many things poorly. But Abreu's better than Dewey was, and he didn't wait until he was 30 to really get consistently good.

I don't think the stats you project will earn him a ticket to the Hall of Fame. Walks and OBP just don't earn HOF votes. So unless there is a sea change in how the voters tend to look at the world, I just don't see it.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think the stats you project will earn him a ticket to the Hall of Fame. Walks and OBP just don't earn HOF votes. So unless there is a sea change in how the voters tend to look at the world, I just don't see it.

Gotta agree with Frobby...Abreu likely won't have any of the magic numbers..He likely won't have many MVP awards. He is not a guy known for postseason heroics.

This is what the voters care about.

[tennOsfan]

When a player who is 30 has a year that vastly outshines every other year of their career, its usually a sign of a fluke. If you sign Soriano expecting him to repeat his 2006 numbers, you're going to be very, very unhappy. There is no chance of him doing so over the course of the contract. He may have 1 or 2 big years, but his numbers over the course of the contract will be a lot closer to the low .800 OPS guy he's been the past few years than the .900+ OPS guy he was this season.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Alfonso-Soriano.shtml

I understand what you are saying, but to place the term "vastly outshines" on Soriano's 2006 season compared to the rest of his career is going too far. Sure, his OPS was a career high, but aside from his two years in Texas, Soriano's stats aren't too far from what he did for the Yankees.

Shooting from the hip on this: One reason his OPS might've been higher this season was due to his higher rate of walks. That difference is because of 1 of 2 reasons, and perhaps a little of both: (1) more patience, or (2) it's easier to get away with pitching him carefully when he's in the Nats lineup versus the Rangers or Yankees -- which I think could be likely.

Fact is, we need another big stick. Soriano constitutes a big stick, for me at least -- his bat is lightning quick and he's a threat to mash the ball every at-bat. We need that kind of guy behind Tejada, and they are rare in this offseason. Thus we need to pursue Soriano.

I want to see improvements and results NOW. I don't care what our record was in 2006. Take the Tigers, for instance: two years ago they weren't sitting around saying, "Well our pitchers are young and we've got some up-and-coming hitters, but we don't think we're going to contend in 2005 and thus we won't spend money on free agents." Instead, they picked up people like Pudge, Magglio, etc., and while not all of those deals wound up being great, at least those deals made it clear to the whole organization that the brass was serious about competing. I do not want our young players thinking the Orioles are a second-rate team just going through the motions. The Tigers didn't do it that way, and I don't think we should either.