How do we get Trevor Bauer? (Update: Bauer to Indians)

[Flash- bd]

socalbirdfan is getting railed totally wrongly in this thread, IMO. It's amazing how people still make arguments about Tillman after how many months (?) that are both 1) incredibly unfair and 2) easily debunk-able/discredit-able. (Elbren's post being a good example)

(For the record, although it was clearly unintended, MachadoaboutManny has really made me laugh. Sir: I, for one, am thankful to you!)

[Can_of_corn]

I would like to add that I was tempted to neg rep MuchadOboutManny for these posts as well--and I don't even have a dog in the fight. Might want to tone it down, MOM.

I considered it but decided against since it might look like I was being thin skinned instead of disagreeing about his behavior in a more general manner.

[Il BuonO]

I considered it but decided against since it might look like I was being thin skinned instead of disagreeing about his behavior in a more general manner.

I can appreciate this. I didn't either. I can count the number of times I have on one hand. I'm not easily offended. Probably comes from living with three females.

EDIT: I would also like to add I appreciate the support.

[Elbren]

socalbirdfan is getting railed totally wrongly in this thread, IMO. It's amazing how people still make arguments about Tillman after how many months (?) that are both 1) incredibly unfair and 2) easily debunk-able/discredit-able. (Elbren's post being a good example)

(For the record, although it was clearly unintended, MachadoaboutManny has really made me laugh. Sir: I, for one, am thankful to you!)

I like how you say it's easily debunkable/discredit-able and "incredibly unfair" ... yet offer nothing in rebuttal to refute that fact.

No one is saying Tillman is bad. But to suggest that he has anywhere even close to Bauer's value is just flat out wrong. Bauer is 21, just drafted in 2011 and and has already shot thru the system up to AAA. Tillman is only 24, but he's been at the ML level since 2009. Sorry, but I find it hard to call anyone a 'prospect' when they've been bouncing up and down between the Majors and Minor for 4 years. Yes, he was very good and (finally) consistent this year but that doesn't suddenly change the fact that he had yet to lock down a rotation spot up to this season and, if he still has options left, he may not even be a lock for next years rotation. Wada should be healthy at some point, Hammel will be healthy going into next season, then there's Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, Chen and Gonzalez with Bundy and Steve Johnson having outside (but highly doubtful) chances at the rotation. That's 8 - 10 starters that could possibly make the rotation; 11 if they bring back Saunders ... and that's before any kind of FA signings or trades.

It really is crazy how much people on this site over-value players in our organization. Always makes me think of all the people making the 'Randy Johnson' comparison when talking about Daniel Cabrera, year after year ... even up to the point when the O's non-tendered him. lol Does Tillman have a lot more value than he did a year ago at this time? Yes, obviously, but it's still no where near the level of Bauer. No team in baseball makes that trade straight up (or even if you add a guy like Schoop) and yes, that includes the Orioles if we're the team w/ Bauer and someone else is offering Tillman. Only GM that makes that trade is Bavasi and there 's a reason he got run out of Seattle.

[Snutchy]

You're delusional. Your argument contains no substance at all. In this little 'debate' -- not only have you lost it -- but how naive you are is staggering. You have attempted to manipulate things into your favor a little bit here and a little bit there. Facts are what they are. Tillman has less value than Bauer right now, but that wasn't even the argument, Coc argued that the value of a 2011 Tillman was an adequate comparison in value to 2012 Bauer. It is not.

Everything I have stated is correct. I took time out of my evening to explain things to you -- you should be more thankful. I have been more than kind and explained things to you very clearly.

You remind me of Vicini.

The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right... and who is dead.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I like how you say it's easily debunkable/discredit-able and "incredibly unfair" ... yet offer nothing in rebuttal to refute that fact.

No one is saying Tillman is bad. But to suggest that he has anywhere even close to Bauer's value is just flat out wrong. Bauer is 21, just drafted in 2011 and and has already shot thru the system up to AAA. Tillman is only 24, but he's been at the ML level since 2009. Sorry, but I find it hard to call anyone a 'prospect' when they've been bouncing up and down between the Majors and Minor for 4 years. Yes, he was very good and (finally) consistent this year but that doesn't suddenly change the fact that he had yet to lock down a rotation spot up to this season and, if he still has options left, he may not even be a lock for next years rotation. Wada should be healthy at some point, Hammel will be healthy going into next season, then there's Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, Chen and Gonzalez with Bundy and Steve Johnson having outside (but highly doubtful) chances at the rotation. That's 8 - 10 starters that could possibly make the rotation; 11 if they bring back Saunders ... and that's before any kind of FA signings or trades.

It really is crazy how much people on this site over-value players in our organization. Always makes me think of all the people making the 'Randy Johnson' comparison when talking about Daniel Cabrera, year after year ... even up to the point when the O's non-tendered him. lol Does Tillman have a lot more value than he did a year ago at this time? Yes, obviously, but it's still no where near the level of Bauer. No team in baseball makes that trade straight up (or even if you add a guy like Schoop) and yes, that includes the Orioles if we're the team w/ Bauer and someone else is offering Tillman. Only GM that makes that trade is Bavasi and there 's a reason he got run out of Seattle.

There seems to be some overvaluing of other teams players/prospects to some degree too, though, that goes on by others. No way that it takes Machado/Bundy (Gausman can't be traded) to get Bauer, especially if he has fallen out of favor with the FO in AZ.

[SteveO]

At the right cost I would trade for Bauer. That said I imagine that several other organization will value him more so than the O's. He is intriguing and has potential but we also have a number of decent arms already in the system. While the arguement can be made that Bauer might be better than some of them, is he that much better that it justifies moving the limited number of trade pieces you have to get him.....No way. If he could hit MOO I would vote yes but he cant.

Justin Upton though, different story. He would likely cost you a Machado, Bundy or Gaussman + more. If somehow the O's could snooker the Diamondbacks into taking a deal that does not include one of those 3 guys, well hell I would do that. Something like this.

Hardy, one of Arrieta/Matusz/Britton, Schoop, and of Hoes/Avery for Upton and some other Scrub? Not even sure that Arizona would consider that or would they insist one of Bundy/Machado be included.

[Flash- bd]

Tillman is not a "prospect". The guy will be 25 next season and he's been in the league since 2009. He couldn't even make the rotation out of Spring Training despite the fact that all 5 rotation spots were seemingly up for grabs.

He was coming off a disastrous season where he had lost most of his FB velocity and most of his chances of being a big league pitcher and was totally re-working his mechanics with Peterson. Absurd to hold this against him.

Yes, he had a great season, but it was only 15 starts. You seem to be forgetting that he has 36 starts prior to this that suggest this success won't hold.

This argument has been made to death on here and debunked to death. Tillman was a radically different pitcher stuff-wise in 2012. It makes very little sense to hold his first 36 starts against them, or assign them any kind of real predictive value.

Again, he's been in the league since 2009. This is the first time his ERA has been under 5.40 and the first time his WHIP has been under 1.53. The league has also hit .300 off of him in 2 of his 4 seasons.

See above.

Hell, it took Hammel's injury and Arrieta, Matusz and Hunter all pitching themselves out of the rotation before the organization finally gave Tillman a chance this year. That's the kind of faith they had in him up to this point. You act like the rest of the league is just going to magically ignore all of that. In no way, shape or form does Chris Tillman have the same type of value as a 21 year old top prospect whose put in half a season at AAA despite only being drafted last year.

Repeating yourself, making the same straw-man you did before. What does any of this non-sense have to do with anything? The second sentence is a false sequitur, it absolutely does not follow from the first (premise). Tillman's lack of an opportunity to start at the big league level had nothing to do with a lack of faith (and there were reports at the time, to this effect, mind you) in him and everything to do with having a specific plan for him (if you read Duquette's comments around the all-star break, after we had overhauled our rotation with Tillman and Gonzalez, you will actually see that Duquette was putting a lot of faith in Tillman). It makes about as much sense to say that Schoop is no good because the organization chose Machado to come up over him as it does to say Tillman was such a last ditch attempt as you make it out to be. (ie, different players, different timetables, quite discrete factors at play) There was a calculated, thought-out program about how to bring Tillman along, and it was executed. If anything you might argue they pushed a little bit too much on him too early, as he got hurt late in the season. The last sentence is completely your opinion, and similarly tendentious. Don't forget Tillman was once the #22 prospect in all of baseball; a lot of that rating was based on his potential for growth into his body, and with that growth in velocity. Just because these things didn't come together til age 24/25 doesn't take away from his talent in any form or fashion.

I like how you say it's easily debunkable/discredit-able and "incredibly unfair" ... yet offer nothing in rebuttal to refute that fact.

You asked for it. See above.

Also go back and read some of the Tillman threads from this summer, when he was just up with the big club, and there was an even smaller group of posters that rated him. He's been discussed in a much more thorough, fleshed-out fashion than this. I don't really feel like getting into your Bauer vs. Tillman argument because I think it's a bit of a silly one and it smacks of an invitation to a long, frustrating pissfest (is that the correct terminology?), but I'm pretty confident about 7 out of 10 execs in the game today would trade Bauer for Tillman straight up, if they had the chance. You are way over-confident--and are seriously over-adjusting in your attempt to make a point against fans over-valuing their own players--in your stance on this point. And that's coming from someone who actually quite likes Bauer, and who opened this thread for such reason, because he's a player that appeals to me.

[SteveO]

He was coming off a disastrous season where he had lost most of his FB velocity and most of his chances of being a big league pitcher and was totally re-working his mechanics with Peterson. Absurd to hold this against him.

This argument has been made to death on here and debunked to death. Tillman was a radically different pitcher stuff-wise in 2012. It makes very little sense to hold his first 36 starts against them, or assign them any kind of real predictive value.

See above.

Repeating yourself, making the same straw-man you did before. What does any of this non-sense have to do with anything? The second sentence is a false sequitur, it absolutely does not follow from the first (premise). Tillman's lack of an opportunity to start at the big league level had nothing to do with a lack of faith (and there were reports at the time, to this effect, mind you) in him and everything to do with having a specific plan for him (if you read Duquette's comments around the all-star break, after we had overhauled our rotation with Tillman and Gonzalez, you will actually see that Duquette was putting a lot of faith in Tillman). It makes about as much sense to say that Schoop is no good because the organization chose Machado to come up over him as it does to say Tillman was such a last ditch attempt as you make it out to be. (ie, different players, different timetables, quite discrete factors at play) There was a calculated, thought-out program about how to bring Tillman along, and it was executed. If anything you might argue they pushed a little bit too much on him too early, as he got hurt late in the season. The last sentence is completely your opinion, and similarly tendentious. Don't forget Tillman was once the #22 prospect in all of baseball; a lot of that rating was based on his potential for growth into his body, and with that growth in velocity. Just because these things didn't come together til age 24/25 doesn't take away from his talent in any form or fashion.

You asked for it. See above.

Also go back and read some of the Tillman threads from this summer, when he was just up with the big club, and there was an even smaller group of posters that rated him. He's been discussed in a much more thorough, fleshed-out fashion than this. I don't really feel like getting into your Bauer vs. Tillman argument because I think it's a bit of a silly one and it smacks of an invitation to a long, frustrating pissfest (is that the correct terminology?), but I'm pretty confident about 7 out of 10 execs in the game today would trade Bauer for Tillman straight up, if they had the chance. You are way over-confident--and are seriously over-adjusting in your attempt to make a point against fans over-valuing their own players--in your stance on this point. And that's coming from someone who actually quite likes Bauer, and who opened this thread for such reason, because he's a player that appeals to me.

To me the bottom line is that terms of prospects the team has more arms than bats. If your gonna move prospects, the team should be moving them to acquire that which they are lacking in which is depth in terms of positional prospects. If Bauer was Bundy like then I would have a different opinion. Just do not perceive him as that much better in terms of potential then some of the arms in the system already not named Bundy.

[Number5]

The Diamondbacks will listen to offers on Bauer. That doesn't mean that they will take less than market value for him. They aren't going to give him away. Sounds to me like they are testing the waters. I doubt if the Orioles are willing to pay what it would take to get him, and I am OK with that.

[CSB Jack]

Is there any reason to think Bauer would be able to crack the Orioles rotation next spring? I see that he has future value but is he more of a sure thing than Gausman? Based on his performance last year at AAA and MLB I don't see him as one of the top five guys to start for the Orioles if he were added to the roster. What am I missing here?

And don't we need a bat right now more than we need a pitcher in the future?

[Il BuonO]

I like how you say it's easily debunkable/discredit-able and "incredibly unfair" ... yet offer nothing in rebuttal to refute that fact.

No one is saying Tillman is bad. But to suggest that he has anywhere even close to Bauer's value is just flat out wrong. Bauer is 21, just drafted in 2011 and and has already shot thru the system up to AAA. Tillman is only 24, but he's been at the ML level since 2009. Sorry, but I find it hard to call anyone a 'prospect' when they've been bouncing up and down between the Majors and Minor for 4 years.

Who set him on the course of bouncing up and down since 2009? If the Orioles as an organization weren't in such dire straights at the ML level when he should have been putting in a full season at AA and AAA he would have never been called up. Did you miss the fact that he was ranked second only to Wieters in our system and projected ahead of Matusz for the 2012 rotation at the time? He was also a highly thought of (22nd ranking BA) draft pick who was rushed along because the Orioles as an organization didn't have any depth and kept moving pitchers through the system who weren't ready. Tillman's stints at the ML level were ill conceived and ill timed and saying he has been at the ML level since 2009 is inaccurate. He's had appearances in each of those seasons that amounted in him returning to the minors. Saying he's been there since 2009 makes it seem as though he's a bum who hasn't done anything for three years. Thank goodness we now have some people who still know how to develop talent.

Trevor Bauer has worked with my friend Alan Jaeger and is a special talent. He has an extremely good work ethic. As you note, he shot through the AZ system and I would use Tillman as a cautionary tale on what not to do with young, up and coming talent. Perhaps he flourishes within another organization.

[CSB Jack]

You have to constantly look for ways to add talent especially if there is a bargain availalbe. That last part is important.

I understand that. It doesn't make sense to me though, to trade pitching talent PLUS other talent at areas we do not have surplus to get back one pitching prospect who may be only marginally better than what we would be giving up and who would not be able to help us right now. This isn't trading an established veteran to get lots of prospects. The discussion in this thread has been about trading established talent and high level prospects for one prospect.

If ARI wants to sell low, fine, see if we can work a deal. Most of what has been talked about here is not what I could consider buying at a discount. But of course, most speculation on a message board is more of the "what if..." variety than based on what is really likely to be available. Still, he does not seem to be ready to help the team now so it doesn't make sense to me for a team that is competing for the playoffs to weaken their major and minor league teams to get one more high level prospect when they already have a possible surplus at the same position. Especially when the team that drafted him just a couple years ago wants to let him go at a discount.

[Elbren]

He was coming off a disastrous season where he had lost most of his FB velocity and most of his chances of being a big league pitcher and was totally re-working his mechanics with Peterson. Absurd to hold this against him.

[...]

This argument has been made to death on here and debunked to death. Tillman was a radically different pitcher stuff-wise in 2012. It makes very little sense to hold his first 36 starts against them, or assign them any kind of real predictive value.

How is any of that absurd? I'm sorry, but you can't just ignore the majority of someone's career because it doesn't fit into your argument. If you're just going to pretend the first 3 years of his career didn't happen, then there's really no point to this discussion. lol

Tillman's lack of an opportunity to start at the big league level had nothing to do with a lack of faith in him and everything to do with having a specific plan for him (if you read Duquette's comments around the all-star break, after we had overhauled our rotation with Tillman and Gonzalez, you will actually see that Duquette was putting a lot of faith in Tillman).

Of course the organization is going to say, "we have a plan for him." What are you expecting them to say? "We've given up on that guy. He's terrible." We went through nine starters this year. Nine. That's without counting the 4 starts from Steve Johnson and 2 starts each from Randy Wolf and Dana Eveland. I don't care what type of "plan" an organization had for you; it says something about you when a team goes thru that much ineffectiveness from their starters and still won't go to you until the All-Star break. The rest of the league see's that, even if you're willing to ignore it.

Don't forget Tillman was once the #22 prospect in all of baseball ...

Yes ... unfortunately, 2008/2009 was quite some time ago.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. The whole point of my original comment was not to bash Tillman, but to point out Tillman's value vs. that of Bauer. Bauer isn't a top 10 prospect in the Arizona farm system. He's a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. That's up there with Bundy folks. That doesn't magically change because there's an article that says he's "fallen out of favor with some in the organization."

Is there any reason to think Bauer would be able to crack the Orioles rotation next spring? I see that he has future value but is he more of a sure thing than Gausman? Based on his performance last year at AAA and MLB I don't see him as one of the top five guys to start for the Orioles if he were added to the roster. What am I missing here?

And don't we need a bat right now more than we need a pitcher in the future?

What was wrong with his AAA numbers?

He had a sub-3.00 ERA, had an almost 3:1 K:BB ratio and averaged over 10 K's per 9 innings. And that's in the Pacific Coast League which, if I'm not mistaken, is a hitter friendly league.

[Il BuonO]

Just a reminder for all lovers of all things Bauer. The AZ FO wasn't the only place where his standing had dropped. Baseball America didn't have him listed in their mid season rankings of 50 best prospects for 2012.

Trevor WAS a top ten prospect. He needs to do some work to get back on that list. Seems you're putting his value at what it was when he was drafted. Things change.