So Buster Olney says the Orioles are looking to re-sign Saunders

[wildcard]

Yeah, but, 3/$30m isn't TOR money. That's #3 money. A true TOR is going to get $15-$20m+ a year. If Hammel does what he did last year for a full season than 3/30 is a bargain. Otherwise he'll probably be looking at 4/$60m on the open market.

Go look at Hammel's 1st half/ 2nd half splits over his career. Your If Hammel does what he did last year for a full season is not what his history shows. Therefore to use that as a method of deriving with salaries is not real a valid approach.

I do agree that if Hammel could put up full season number like he did in the first half he would be worth a 3 year contract. However he hasn't done that.

[wildcard]

According to FanGraphs his performance last year was was worth $13M in free agency money. It would have been great if he had stayed healthy this year but he has immense value and I doubt he is traded.

Citing the Expos is a poor argument since the economics of the game have shifted greatly in the last 15 years.

And releasing Luke Scott was an obvious move.

Fangraphs salary projections are inflated.

I am sure that Hammel will be tendered. Then the O's and Hammel's agent will try to work out something a little longer. To cover 2014 or more. So he stays with the O's. If that doesn't work then a trade is certainly possible.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Go look at Hammel's 1st half/ 2nd half splits over his career. Your If Hammel does what he did last year for a full season is not what his history shows. Therefore to use that as a method of deriving with salaries is not real a valid approach.

I do agree that if Hammel could put up full season number like he did in the first half he would be worth a 3 year contract. However he hasn't done that.

And I agree that's a valid concern and possibly a reason you don't extend him now. Point is, extending him now is the best opportunity to get a TOR at a bargain. It's also the best opportunity to extend someone who has an injury problem and might not pitch more than 100innings. End of the day, it's really just a question of how much you like to gamble.

[wildcard]

And I agree that's a valid concern and possibly a reason you don't extend him now. Point is, extending him now is the best opportunity to get a TOR at a bargain. It's also the best opportunity to extend someone who has an injury problem and might not pitch more than 100innings. End of the day, it's really just a question of how much you like to gamble.

So far (and I don't know if it will hold true.) DD's gamble tolerance seem to be under $5M per year. He gambled on Chen and Wada. Each under 5M per year. But the traded Guthrie at 8M.

[DrungoHazewood]

So far (and I don't know if it will hold true.) DD's gamble tolerance seem to be under $5M per year. He gambled on Chen and Wada. Each under 5M per year. But the traded Guthrie at 8M.

I don't know why you'd extrapolate a set "gamble threshold" based on a very small handful of independent data points. I'd assume he has a variable tolerance for risk based on a variety of factors.

[weams]

Busters says. One person involved in the Greinke talks believes there is a good chance he beats CC Sabathia's record of 7/$161m.

[Can_of_corn]

Busters says. One person involved in the Greinke talks believes there is a good chance he beats CC Sabathia's record of 7/$161m.

Dodgers are involved.

[Dark Helmet]

Busters says. One person involved in the Greinke talks believes there is a good chance he beats CC Sabathia's record of 7/$161m.

He will be a Dodger

[waroriole]

Busters says. One person involved in the Greinke talks believes there is a good chance he beats CC Sabathia's record of 7/$161m.

Just absurd.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Just absurd.

Absurd? Angelos can afford it. There is no reason cheapskate can't add one or two premium free agents. If he doesn't, it'll be another slap in the face to the Oriole faithful.

[section18]

He is not worth anywhere near that kind of money. We go through this year after year. How many pitchers can win 12-14 games for you and earn less than $8 million per year? Quite a few! How many more than 14 is Greinke going to win? 3 or 4? So you are going to pay him $14 million more for 3 or 4 more wins? Insane!

[DrungoHazewood]

He is not worth anywhere near that kind of money. We go through this year after year. How many pitchers can win 12-14 games for you and earn less than $8 million per year? Quite a few! How many more than 14 is Greinke going to win? 3 or 4? So you are going to pay him $14 million more for 3 or 4 more wins? Insane!

So your argument is that the O's should never pay a player free agent prices when there are pre-free agency players who can perform capabily? I suppose that's the Rays and Royals and Pirates model, and it sometimes does work. But you'd better watch out for Johnny and MSK, they take a somewhat different view.

In any case, while Greinke isn't an ace, he is a 3-ish win player. And the going rate for a 3-win player in free agency is about $15M a year. If you're not willing to go that high you're going to have to find non-free agent pitchers to supplement the staff.

[Roll Tide]

So your argument is that the O's should never pay a player free agent prices when there are pre-free agency players who can perform capabily? I suppose that's the Rays and Royals and Pirates model, and it sometimes does work. But you'd better watch out for Johnny and MSK, they take a somewhat different view.

In any case, while Greinke isn't an ace, he is a 3-ish win player. And the going rate for a 3-win player in free agency is about $15M a year. If you're not willing to go that high you're going to have to find non-free agent pitchers to supplement the staff.

The Orioles problem are more on the offensive side of the ledger. I like Greinke but not for that kind of dough. I have said many times resign Saunders or a similar arm. Sign Hamilton & trade for Butler. Much improved team IMO.

[MurphDogg]

Absurd? Angelos can afford it. There is no reason cheapskate can't add one or two premium free agents. If he doesn't, it'll be another slap in the face to the Oriole faithful.

Please don't pretend to speak for all Orioles fans. Failure to overpay Zach Greinke is not a slap in my face. Also the name-calling is immature and makes you seem petty.

Also, there is a numbers issue here. How many free agents are deemed premium? 8? 10? If there are 30 teams in the league and every team must sign 1-2 there will be few fans with unslapped faces by the beginning of next season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Please don't pretend to speak for all Orioles fans. Failure to overpay Zach Greinke is not a slap in my face. Also the name-calling is immature and makes you seem petty.

Also, there is a numbers issue here. How many free agents are deemed premium? 8? 10? If there are 30 teams in the league and every team must sign 1-2 there will be few fans with unslapped faces by the beginning of next season.

Pretty sure CA-ORIOLE was being sarcastic. He's usually a voice of reason, not a reactionary free agent agitator.