So Buster Olney says the Orioles are looking to re-sign Saunders

[Can_of_corn]

Arrieta is not a starting material anymore but he can be workhorse as a member of the 'pen. I like his job in final month as a reliever. Terrible starters or not, Arrieta and Hunter still can be useful and effective player if we use them in right way. I'd like to see what they can offer as a full time relievers. Britton is good as gone, we probably use him in trade.

I liked the 13.5 K/9 just fine but the 10 ER in 13.1 innings wasn't real impressive (3HR). Looks like 10 of the 16 baserunners he allowed scored.

[NewMarketSean]

I would like to have Saunders back in the black and orange. Nothing flashy but he'll give you innings and keep you in most games.

[El Gordo]

Saunders sets a good bar for Arrieta Matusz, and Britton. If they want to make the rotation they're gonna have to out pitch him.,

[Dark Helmet]

Saunders sets a good bar for Arrieta Matusz, and Britton. If they want to make the rotation they're gonna have to out pitch him.,

If Saunders is brought back, those three will be battling Gonzalez and Tillman for a spot. Even then imo. Even then Tillman and Gonzalez should have the inside track. I think 2 of the group will be traded.

[Roll Tide]

If Saunders is brought back, those three will be battling Gonzalez and Tillman for a spot. Even then imo. Even then Tillman and Gonzalez should have the inside track. I think 2 of the group will be traded.

I believe you will see a trade also. I'd say Tillman and Gonzalez have earned their spots in the rotation for next season.

[wildcard]

Guthrie went to 2 second division clubs, as you say, and still comes up with a 3/25M contract. DD has the option of keeping Hammel for one year, extending him now, waiting until he becomes a FA and taking his chances, or trading him. I do not believe that signing him to a one year plus club option is even an option. Why sign a 1/8M contract with a club option for 10-12M, when you can get the 1/8M anyway and have a reasonable chance at a 3/30M mininum next offseason. Again, the club option is not guaranteed to the player so he has no security at all. It just makes no sense.

BTW, Hammel could just as easily get traded to a 1st division club unless you think DD's main mission in trading Hammel would be to punish him instead of looking for the best return.

Seriously look at the options you outlined:

1) keeping Hammel for one year, - So he can go FA at the end of the year. DD showed with Guthrie that he does not like that strategy.

2) extending him now, - for 2 or 3 years. How the O's value the guy? He has never had a full year that warrants a high value. They like what they saw last year but he lasted only 20 starts and still has knee issues according to the last reports. Plus his history show he does much worse in the 2nd half and he was not able to disspell that because he was injured. How to you give him 3/30 with that kind of track record?

3) waiting until he becomes a FA - not an option because DD showed with Guthrie that he would trade him before that happened.

4) or trading him. - which is in the realm of possibility but not the first choice.

The best option is to sign him for a year with an option so he can prove his value and get the kind of contract he wants valued as a TOR starter. Its the best thing for both sides.

[Crazysilver03]

I think you are really to hung up with the Guthrie comparison. If Hammel pitches like he did last year, the Orioles would very easily offer a qualifying offer and would have a decent chance of getting the pick as Hammel would probably score a multiyear contract on the open market. Hammel was a much better pitcher last year than Guthrie was in his final season.

[wildcard]

I think you are really to hung up with the Guthrie comparison. If Hammel pitches like he did last year, the Orioles would very easily offer a qualifying offer and would have a decent chance of getting the pick as Hammel would probably score a multiyear contract on the open market. Hammel was a much better pitcher last year than Guthrie was in his final season.

The O's are unlikely to offer Hammel a qualified offer next year because qualified offers are likely to rise from the 13.3M because of the 25M in TV revenue that every team will get. Salaries are likely to go up across the board for high quality players. Say they go up to 15M. Do you really think the O's are going to offer 15M to Hammel next year. I seriously doubt it.

The Guthrie trade is a keystone event for the way DD works. He doesn't let players of value walk away as FAs. He trades them for other players he values. He did it last year and I think it is likely that he will do it again if Hammel puts him in that situation. Remember DD started in Montreal where he had to know how to keep value in the organization by trading players as they came close to FA. Tampa does in now. There is a lot of reasons to believe that DD will never let Hammel become a FA as an Oriole.

[Can_of_corn]

The O's are unlikely to offer Hammel a qualified offer next year because qualified offers are likely to rise from the 13.3M because of the 25M in TV revenue that every team will get. Salaries are likely to go up across the board for high quality players. Say they go up to 15M. Do you really think the O's are going to offer 15M to Hammel next year. I seriously doubt it.

The Guthrie trade is a keystone event for the way DD works. He doesn't let players of value walk away as FAs. He trades them for other players he values. He did it last year and I think it is likely that he will do it again if Hammel puts him in that situation. Remember DD started in Montreal where he had to know how to keep value in the organization by trading players as they came close to FA. Tampa does in now. There is a lot of reasons to believe that DD will never let Hammel become a FA as an Oriole.

Andino would be another example.

[Frobby]

The O's are unlikely to offer Hammel a qualified offer next year because qualified offers are likely to rise from the 13.3M because of the 25M in TV revenue that every team will get. Salaries are likely to go up across the board for high quality players. Say they go up to 15M. Do you really think the O's are going to offer 15M to Hammel next year. I seriously doubt it.

The Guthrie trade is a keystone event for the way DD works. He doesn't let players of value walk away as FAs. He trades them for other players he values. He did it last year and I think it is likely that he will do it again if Hammel puts him in that situation. Remember DD started in Montreal where he had to know how to keep value in the organization by trading players as they came close to FA. Tampa does in now. There is a lot of reasons to believe that DD will never let Hammel become a FA as an Oriole.

Are you really going to extrapolate from a sample of one player to draw a grand conclusion like this? The O's clearly weren't too happy with Guthrie's negotiation posture with them, and frankly, I think Buck was just ready to move on to somebody else, considering that Guthrie just couldn't seem to translate his decent pitching into winning games. I wouldn't draw any general conclusions about Duquette's tendencies just because he traded one guy who was going to be a free agent the following year. And, the O's are in a different posture now than they were coming off a 69-win season.

[Crazysilver03]

The O's are unlikely to offer Hammel a qualified offer next year because qualified offers are likely to rise from the 13.3M because of the 25M in TV revenue that every team will get. Salaries are likely to go up across the board for high quality players. Say they go up to 15M. Do you really think the O's are going to offer 15M to Hammel next year. I seriously doubt it.

The Guthrie trade is a keystone event for the way DD works. He doesn't let players of value walk away as FAs. He trades them for other players he values. He did it last year and I think it is likely that he will do it again if Hammel puts him in that situation. Remember DD started in Montreal where he had to know how to keep value in the organization by trading players as they came close to FA. Tampa does in now. There is a lot of reasons to believe that DD will never let Hammel become a FA as an Oriole.

The 25M in TV revenue doesn't start until 2014, so it will have no bearing on qualifying offers next off-season, when Hammel is schedule to be a free agent.

It also seems that DD was not a Guthrie supporter at all, for whatever reason. That seems to have played into DD trading him as well. Yes he would have been a free agent and he wanted to maximize value, but he was also making a lot of money for a player that wasn't worth the money.

[wildcard]

There are really two examples since DD took over showing how he deals with players approaching free agency or getting expensive when they don't have the track record to justify their raising salaries. Guthrie and Luke Scott. One he trade because he had value. The O's he non tendered rather then offer arbitration. These are the examples while DD has been with the O's but the Expos had a steady policy of trading talented players for younger players. That was due to their need to keep the payroll under control. I am not saying that the O's need to go to the extremes that the Expos did, but the DD has shown the willingness and discipline to move players that have not proven that they will be worth rising salaries. And in the cases of players that have value he trades them.

Hammel really hasn't proven he is worth a long term agreement. His health is currently questionable. His 2nd half performance over his career has been poor. He did very well in the first half and in the playoffs in 2012. But he has not proven to be a 200 inning starter. If Hammel does exactly what he did this year for every year for the next three years is he worth from 8 to 12M? 8-6 with a 3.43 in 118 innings isn't worth 3/30 IMO. Hammel needs to prove he is a TOR if he wants to be paid like one.

[DrungoHazewood]

...Luke Scott. One he trade because he had value. The O's he non tendered rather then offer arbitration.

They non-tendered Scott because he was injured, coming off a poor year, and highly unlikely to earn what he'd have received in arb. Of course they didn't tender him a contract, almost no one would have. That's less a precedent than it was a no-brainer.

[Crazysilver03]

There are really two examples since DD took over showing how he deals with players approaching free agency or getting expensive when they don't have the track record to justify their raising salaries. Guthrie and Luke Scott. One he trade because he had value. The O's he non tendered rather then offer arbitration. These are the examples while DD has been with the O's but the Expos had a steady policy of trading talented players for younger players. That was due to their need to keep the payroll under control. I am not saying that the O's need to go to the extremes that the Expos did, but the DD has shown the willingness and discipline to move players that have not proven that they will be worth rising salaries. And in the cases of players that have value he trades them.

Hammel really hasn't proven he is worth a long term agreement. His health is currently questionable. His 2nd half performance over his career has been poor. He did very well in the first half and in the playoffs in 2012. But he has not proven to be a 200 inning starter. If Hammel does exactly what he did this year for every year for the next three years is he worth from 8 to 12M? 8-6 with a 3.43 in 118 innings isn't worth 3/30 IMO. Hammel needs to prove he is a TOR if he wants to be paid like one.

According to FanGraphs his performance last year was was worth $13M in free agency money. It would have been great if he had stayed healthy this year but he has immense value and I doubt he is traded.

Citing the Expos is a poor argument since the economics of the game have shifted greatly in the last 15 years.

And releasing Luke Scott was an obvious move.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

There are really two examples since DD took over showing how he deals with players approaching free agency or getting expensive when they don't have the track record to justify their raising salaries. Guthrie and Luke Scott. One he trade because he had value. The O's he non tendered rather then offer arbitration. These are the examples while DD has been with the O's but the Expos had a steady policy of trading talented players for younger players. That was due to their need to keep the payroll under control. I am not saying that the O's need to go to the extremes that the Expos did, but the DD has shown the willingness and discipline to move players that have not proven that they will be worth rising salaries. And in the cases of players that have value he trades them.

Hammel really hasn't proven he is worth a long term agreement. His health is currently questionable. His 2nd half performance over his career has been poor. He did very well in the first half and in the playoffs in 2012. But he has not proven to be a 200 inning starter. If Hammel does exactly what he did this year for every year for the next three years is he worth from 8 to 12M? 8-6 with a 3.43 in 118 innings isn't worth 3/30 IMO. Hammel needs to prove he is a TOR if he wants to be paid like one.

Yeah, but, 3/$30m isn't TOR money. That's #3 money. A true TOR is going to get $15-$20m+ a year. If Hammel does what he did last year for a full season than 3/30 is a bargain. Otherwise he'll probably be looking at 4/$60m, or more, on the open market.