Orioles are one of the teams that the Twins have contacted in regards to Justin Morneau

[soxhotcorner14]

I agree with you. Also, Morneau is 2 years removed from an absolutely torrid first half in 2010 pre injury. Not too long ago. I feel like you can't necessarily judge him as a player that's definitely on the decline. He has been affected by injuries, and if he can be healthy, who knows? That's my main point.

I think he can give the O's possibly 3-4 years of solid production at 1B. And will be the best fit over there since Palmeiro. Just have to figure out what jersey he's going to wear because he damn well isn't wearing Eddie Murray's 33.

[OrioleMagic79]

Good contact, strikes out 100 times less than Reynolds just for starters. Like I've stated, hes' not the Plan A... but if what DD was saying that MR would get $12M in arbitration, would you bone up $2M for former MVP? I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure MR doesn't have that on his resume. So the quality of player is better from actual player standpoint. I don't know much about Morneau personally, so I can't provide if he's just as good as MR in the clubhouse.

Heck yes I would...anyone who wouldn't is loony in my opinion. Not to mention Minnesota is likely to eat some of that salary to get rid of him.

They are likely to cost about the same, but even IF Morneau is $14m for next year, he is significantly better in my opinion. I hesitated to even give MR the OBP category because Morneau would have literally had to get on base 2 more times to exceed MR in this category and the 8 extra Sac Flies more than makes up for this.

I would think the nail in the coffin is that MR is what he is at this point (if not worse next year) and Morneau's potential upside is HUGE in comparison. Even if he only gets half-way back to his MVP stats...In summary, JM was clearly better in 2012, and that is without improving at all or getting close to what he once was.

And let's not be ridiculous here, who cares whether JM deserved the MVP award and was the "20th best player" that year...when has MR ever even come close to that type of year? *Spoiler alert* - the correct answer is never.

[El Gordo]

Reynolds WAR has been destroyed by atrocious defense at third in the past. He is unlikely to be a historically bad defender at first. If he is averagish or slightly below, his WAR would be higher.

Yes. If Reynolds can have league average D at 1B,and career average offense,he would be a 2-3 WAR player. Neither seem much of a reach, for next year.

[MurphDogg]

Yes. If Reynolds can have league average D at 1B,and career average offense,he would be a 2-3 WAR player. Neither seem much of a reach, for next year.

That isn't true. The replacement value at first base is so much higher than that at third that he would need to exceed his career avg offense to reach 2 WAR.

[bpilktree]

The problem i see with him is that he can't hit lefties at all anymore after being hit in the head. You can't have two/three guys at the same position that aren't great at hitting one way. Davis is ok vs lefties but then you have Betemit and him so you still need another 1b/Dh player vs lefties. That is two many guys with the same problems at one position IMO. Rather get a righty hitter and split time with Betemit then another guy that can't hit lefties.

[Frobby]

Heck yes I would...anyone who wouldn't is loony in my opinion. Not to mention Minnesota is likely to eat some of that salary to get rid of him.

They are likely to cost about the same, but even IF Morneau is $14m for next year, he is significantly better in my opinion. I hesitated to even give MR the OBP category because Morneau would have literally had to get on base 2 more times to exceed MR in this category and the 8 extra Sac Flies more than makes up for this.

I would think the nail in the coffin is that MR is what he is at this point (if not worse next year) and Morneau's potential upside is HUGE in comparison. Even if he only gets half-way back to his MVP stats...In summary, JM was clearly better in 2012, and that is without improving at all or getting close to what he once was.

And let's not be ridiculous here, who cares whether JM deserved the MVP award and was the "20th best player" that year...when has MR ever even come close to that type of year? *Spoiler alert* - the correct answer is never.

First of all, that's a cool graphic. I'd love to know how to do that.

As to who I would rather have in 2013 if the money were equal, it's a tough call. I think Morneau probably has more upside for next year. However, we already have a LH 1B/DH (Davis) and a switch hitting 1B/DH who is horrible vs. LHP, as Morneau has been recently. Reynolds, on the other hand, typically hits LHP quite well. For that reason, I feel like the two are more or less a toss-up for 2013, if salaries were equal.

But salaries aren't equal. Morneau will cost $14 mm, whereas Reynolds is going to get significantly less. I know there is some revisionist thinking going on that Reynolds may get $11-14 mm, but I do not believe that. The O's are not so stupid that they would fail to exercise an $11 mm option, and then fail to tender Reynolds a contract, if they could have traded him to some other team that wants him for $11 mm or more. If it turns out I'm wrong, and Reynolds signs for that kind of money, then I will feel pretty stupid, and the Orioles' management should feel even more stupid.

If Minnesota wants to eat $5-7 mm of Morneau's contract, I'd have some mild interest. At $14 mm, I have no interest at all. Sure, he could rebound, but the odds of that aren't good enough to pay him $14 mm.

[OrioleMagic79]

Of course he is. Is that even up for debate? Over his career his bat has been about 12 wins or 120 runs better than a replacement-level player.

Oh here we go with WAR...is there a more made up thing than this? I cannot handle how ridiculous this stat is...does this mean that everyone in the league should be happy with one of their players as long as they are better than the players that nobody wanted and are available on the free agent market in July? I am sure the teams that win the WS think "We should re-sign that guy because he is better than that guy that nobody will sign this offseason..."

That stat is 1) Completely fabricated as a guy could bat .150 all season, but every single hit he had won a game in the bottom of the 9th, while his counterpart hits .290 but he never made it past first base all season and they lost most of those games, and 2) There are a TON of options out there during the offseason that would be better than this mythical "replacement player" that is apparently an average AAA baseball player...

We could sign LaRoche, Swisher, Youkilis, or trade for Morneau, Butler, Morse, etc. and get more out of them than MR...in fact, signing Thome to play in the same amount of MLB games he played in last year and then signing Hafner mid-season to replace him when Thome gets hurt would roughly equal the output that we got from MR all year...what does THAT tell you? Gross...the more I look at his stats and compare them to others out there, the more he looks like a liability to me and that during the end of the season I was being influenced by his hot streak and not taking into account the whole season...

I think that Carlos Pena is roughly about as productive as MR...and that is not a good thing...

[MurphDogg]

That stat is 1) Completely fabricated as a guy could bat .150 all season, but every single hit he had won a game in the bottom of the 9th, while his counterpart hits .290 but he never made it past first base all season and they lost most of those games.

That is not even close to describing how WAR is measured. You are thinking of Win Probability Added. And even then, the hypothetical player described above would not have a good WPA, though it would be artificially inflated by perceived "clutchness".

[OrioleMagic79]

First of all, that's a cool graphic. I'd love to know how to do that.

It's even easier than one might think...there is a great (and relatively cheap) cropping software that is called SnagIt, and it comes with an editor that allows you to add shapes, text, combine images, etc. before you save it...then just upload it to something like Image Shack and embed the image URL into your post...Image Shack beats the crap out of things like PhotoBucket in my opinion...

The comparison came from http://www.thebaseballcube.com/tools/compare.asp and is an amazing tool...I love it...

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Oh here we go with WAR...is there a more made up thing than this? I cannot handle how ridiculous this stat is...does this mean that everyone in the league should be happy with one of their players as long as they are better than the players that nobody wanted and are available on the free agent market in July? I am sure the teams that win the WS think "We should re-sign that guy because he is better than that guy that nobody will sign this offseason..."

That stat is 1) Completely fabricated as a guy could bat .150 all season, but every single hit he had won a game in the bottom of the 9th, while his counterpart hits .290 but he never made it past first base all season and they lost most of those games, and 2) There are a TON of options out there during the offseason that would be better than this mythical "replacement player" that is apparently an average AAA baseball player...

We could sign LaRoche, Swisher, Youkilis, or trade for Morneau, Butler, Morse, etc. and get more out of them than MR...in fact, signing Thome to play in the same amount of MLB games he played in last year and then signing Hafner mid-season to replace him when Thome gets hurt would roughly equal the output that we got from MR all year...what does THAT tell you? Gross...the more I look at his stats and compare them to others out there, the more he looks like a liability to me and that during the end of the season I was being influenced by his hot streak and not taking into account the whole season...

I think that Carlos Pena is roughly about as productive as MR...and that is not a good thing...

I know little about WAR compared to others here, but this couldn't be further from the truth. It's a very useful statistic actually. Like it or not.

[Fan4Life]

For me at 1b:

Reynolds Plan A

Morneau Plan B

Morse Plan C

Why is Butler in a plan for 1b discussion? All I have read is he is awful defensively there and isn't more than a DH.

[luismatos4prez]

That is not even close to describing how WAR is measured. You are thinking of Win Probability Added. And even then, the hypothetical player described above would not have a good WPA, though it would be artificially inflated by perceived "clutchness".

Yeah, folks gotta get the information before they make a judgement. Arguments against WAR are always misinformed, and end up revolving around misconceptions about what WAR measures.

[orioles119]

The Twins are also dangling Ben Revere... why not do this?

Arrieta/Hoes/Avery

for

Morneau (take all salary) and Revere?

1B and LF in one short swoop...

Resign Saunders and McLouth for 4th OF and there's the transactions for the 2013 offseason.

[MurphDogg]

For me at 1b:

Reynolds Plan A

Morneau Plan B

Morse Plan C

Why is Butler in a plan for 1b discussion? All I have read is he is awful defensively there and isn't more than a DH.

He isn't. It would be Butler at DH, Chris Davis at first.

[DrungoHazewood]

Oh here we go with WAR...is there a more made up thing than this? I cannot handle how ridiculous this stat is...does this mean that everyone in the league should be happy with one of their players as long as they are better than the players that nobody wanted and are available on the free agent market in July? I am sure the teams that win the WS think "We should re-sign that guy because he is better than that guy that nobody will sign this offseason..."

I'm not even quite sure where to begin here. If you don't like WAR, then lets use some other metrics. There have been an even 100 corner infielders who've played at least 200 games since 2007. Among those 100 Reynolds is:

9th in home runs

12th in runs scored

27th in doubles

14th in RBI

13th in walks

31st in OPS

By almost any reasonable metric he's an above-average offensive player.

I guess I'll go ahead and ask - If you don't like WAR, then what framework do you use to judge and compare players?

That stat is 1) Completely fabricated as a guy could bat .150 all season, but every single hit he had won a game in the bottom of the 9th, while his counterpart hits .290 but he never made it past first base all season and they lost most of those games, and 2) There are a TON of options out there during the offseason that would be better than this mythical "replacement player" that is apparently an average AAA baseball player...

I have no idea what you're talking about. Literally no idea. You could have at least cut-and-pasted a Murray Chass anti-WAR screed if that was your point.

We could sign LaRoche, Swisher, Youkilis, or trade for Morneau, Butler, Morse, etc. and get more out of them than MR...in fact, signing Thome to play in the same amount of MLB games he played in last year and then signing Hafner mid-season to replace him when Thome gets hurt would roughly equal the output that we got from MR all year...what does THAT tell you? Gross...the more I look at his stats and compare them to others out there, the more he looks like a liability to me and that during the end of the season I was being influenced by his hot streak and not taking into account the whole season...

Some of those would be decent options, some not as much. There's varying levels of risk and cost associated with each. But the overall cost/benefit analysis would probably look pretty favorably on Reynolds as a full-time first baseman. He's far cheaper than LaRoche, who's coming off a massive spike in a age 30+ walk year. He's much less risky than a fading Youkilis. He'll require a much shorter and lower-value deal than Swisher for not much less production. Morneau has significant injury and cost risks. KC wants several high-end prospects for Butler. Morse is 31 and has had one good, full season in his MLB career.

At the right cost Reynolds is a pretty good option. Unfortunately his contract demands were probably higher than his track record warranted.

I think that Carlos Pena is roughly about as productive as MR...and that is not a good thing...

Reynolds was a better hitter last year, and probably the year before. They're comparable on defense at first. So, no, I don' think that's correct.