Is Bundy this special?

[Stotle]

In order for Upton's bat to help us win a WS we have to get there. We aren't likely to get there without a TOR. So if Bundy isn' going to be that, how else are we going to acquire one while our core is intact?

The talent bar for winning a World Series is a lot lower now that it's easier to make the playoffs. It's the only reason I'd think Baltimore should even consider something like Bundy for Upton.

When do you think Bundy starts producing like a #1 or a #2 for Baltimore?

[Stotle]

Assume that Bundy somehow was draft-eligible for the 2013 draft. Where would he be drafted (this is obvious) and what sort of bonus could he command? Obviously the draft bonus system has changed, etc., but I think the point is clear: His phenomenal performance in 2012 has changed his value.

I do not agree with this as it's framed. His value has improved in that he finished a full pro season without breaking down and his stuff played as dominant in A ball. But you are not intimating Bundy would come close to approaching Strasburg's signing package (removing the current system), right?

[weams]

There are good arguments for Bundy and for Upton. Truth be told, there are probably more projected front-end arms (maybe seven or eight) in the minors right now than potential five tool bats or playable "80" power bats. I think the best argument for holding onto Bundy comes down to the extra payroll felxibility you get with him. I think the best argument for Upton over Bundy is he is a better bet to help Baltimore win a World Series in the short term (next three years).

All that said, I can't imagine Bundy alone would net Upton unless there is something wrong with Upton that isn't public knowledge.

Upton would be a three or four player trade and Stanton a four or five. No way these teams put all their eggs in one basket with a player of that magnitude. My belief is neither will be traded this off season.

[Stotle]

Not that I am arguing Bundy is better than Strasburg, but Strasburg was the #1 pick and coming out of college, two things that will inflate the signing bonus.

Bundy got a signing package equal to his talent profile. Three teams passed on him, in each case selecting pitchers. There isn't a draft class in recent history that wouldn't have had Strasburg going #1 overall -- maybe Harper's.

[Stotle]

Upton would be a three or four player trade and Stanton a four or five. No way these teams put all their eggs in one basket with a player of that magnitude. My belief is neither will be traded this off season.

I think you're absolutely right, unless someone like Texas can deal from their crazy surplus of young MLBers and prospects.

[skanar]

I do not agree with this as it's framed. His value has improved in that he finished a full pro season without breaking down and his stuff played as dominant in A ball. But you are not intimating Bundy would come close to approaching Strasburg's signing package (removing the current system), right?

Not necessarily. I'm wondering what sort of package Bundy post-2012 would command in the old system. He got $6.6M before 2012, and Strasburg got $15M. How much of that gap would Bundy's 2012 season close? Would he get $8M? $9M? $12M? I don't think they would be equal but I'm curious how much closer it would get.

[El Gordo]

The talent bar for winning a World Series is a lot lower now that it's easier to make the playoffs. It's the only reason I'd think Baltimore should even consider something like Bundy for Upton.

When do you think Bundy starts producing like a #1 or a #2 for Baltimore?

The talent bar is lower for getting to the playoffs. Once there you need a TOR to win IMO.The question is do you think our current SP as is can even get us to the WS?. Perhaps Bundy won't reach his potential in the next 3 years, but if not, how do we get there? We are not paying for a FA TOR and tradng for one would cost too much in talent.

[Stotle]

The talent bar is lower for getting to the playoffs. Once their you need a TOR to win IMO.The question is do you think our current SP as is can even get us to the WS?. Perhaps Bundy won't reach his potential in the next 3 years, but if not, how do we get there.?We are not paying for a FA TOR and tradng for one would cost too much in talent.

I do not believe you are limited to one formulation in how you construct a playoff winner. It sounds like you are of the opinion that the Orioles short term future rests entirely on Bundy. I tend to think one player, no matter the upside, doesn't control the destiny of an entire franchise.

[Stotle]

Not necessarily. I'm wondering what sort of package Bundy post-2012 would command in the old system. He got $6.6M before 2012, and Strasburg got $15M. How much of that gap would Bundy's 2012 season close? Would he get $8M? $9M? $12M? I don't think they would be equal but I'm curious how much closer it would get.

I mean, it's not really a fair question in that you are removing a portion of "risk" by providing evidence that he held up for a year and at least threw a couple innings at the MLB level. It's like asking whether Washington would pay $25MM for Strasburg if they could get him now. Of course they would.

That said, I doubt Bundy gets much more than he did. His success and age would put him on par with a young college selection. Maybe that earns him an extra $1MM, but he's no closer to the bigs than Hultzen or Bauer or Cole, who all went ahead of him. He's still a little on the undersized side. A better question might be what Jose Fernandez would get if he were drafted this year. Probably a whole heck of a lot closer to Bundy/Archie Bradley than he received, and he certainly would have been selected earlier.

[El Gordo]

I do not believe you are limited to one formulation in how you construct a playoff winner. It sounds like you are of the opinion that the Orioles short term future rests entirely on Bundy. I tend to think one player, no matter the upside, doesn't control the destiny of an entire franchise.

I think anything can happen as last year woulod indicate. But I don't think you can count on the team with it's current SP being able to make it all the way to the WS without someone cosiderably better than Hammel and Chen to head the rotation. Perhaps one of Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, Britton, or Matusz will step up. If not I don't think Upton will make that much of a difference.

[Stotle]

I think anything can happen as last year woulod indicate. But I don't think you can count on the team with it's current SP being able to make it all the way to the WS without someone cosiderably better than Hammel and Chen to head the rotation. Perhaps one of Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, Britton, or Matusz will step up. If not I don't think Upton will make that much of a difference.

Well, you can't have it both ways. You can't say "It could be one of Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, Britton or Matusz" and also say "If it's not Bundy, who can it be?"

[El Gordo]

Well, you can't have it both ways. You can't say "It could be one of Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, Britton or Matusz" and also say "If it's not Bundy, who can it be?"

Bundy probably has the best shot at being that guy. But that is why I am reluctant to trade any of our young SP. I just don't think the bat is as valuable or necessary. Look at what Pujols did for LAA. If I'm giving up starting pitching for a bat, I start with Arrieta and work back through Britton, Matusz, Tillman, untill I get to Bundy. Gausman can't be traded so he isn't an issue.

[skanar]

I mean, it's not really a fair question in that you are removing a portion of "risk" by providing evidence that he held up for a year and at least threw a couple innings at the MLB level. It's like asking whether Washington would pay $25MM for Strasburg if they could get him now. Of course they would.

That said, I doubt Bundy gets much more than he did. His success and age would put him on par with a young college selection. Maybe that earns him an extra $1MM, but he's no closer to the bigs than Hultzen or Bauer or Cole, who all went ahead of him. He's still a little on the undersized side. A better question might be what Jose Fernandez would get if he were drafted this year. Probably a whole heck of a lot closer to Bundy/Archie Bradley than he received, and he certainly would have been selected earlier.

But that's the whole point. The risk of drafting Bundy when he actually was drafted was higher than the risk of drafting Strasburg, for many reasons, but in part because Strasburg was older and pitching in college, rather than fresh out of high school. Comparing the two bonuses at draft time is an apples-to-oranges comparison for that reason. Bundy now is much more comparable in terms of development/age to Strasburg when he was drafted.

[Frobby]

Not that I am arguing Bundy is better than Strasburg, but Strasburg was the #1 pick and coming out of college, two things that will inflate the signing bonus.

Assume that Bundy somehow was draft-eligible for the 2013 draft. Where would he be drafted (this is obvious) and what sort of bonus could he command? Obviously the draft bonus system has changed, etc., but I think the point is clear: His phenomenal performance in 2012 has changed his value.

First of all, I agree that Bundy's perceived value increased after his 2012 season. After all, Cole, Hultzen and Bauer all were drafted ahead of him, and he has now arguably leapfrogged them into top prospect status.

Still, there was a lot of debate on 2011 draft day as to who was the best pitching prospect, and even today, there would be some debate whether Bundy was the best of that group. There was ZERO debate about Strasburg. His draft bonus BLEW AWAY any prior bonus ever given to any prospect, pitcher or hitter, high school or college. And everything he did after that backed it up. The guy spent what, two months in the minors, before he came up and dominated in the majors?

We should leave Strasburg out of the conversation when looking for minor league comps for Bundy.

[VeveJones007]

Good observations. And, of course, no one is saying Bundy won't be a stud. But even in the "successful outcomes" portion of his projections, fans should realize that could still mean its two years until he's established and starting to consistently produce.

At which point, Bundy would be in his 21 year old season. There's just so much potential value with Bundy that would make it hard to justify a trade for Upton.