Rosenthal: Bedard to Mariners 1 player from completion

[Lucky Jim]

This deal gives us both. I'm not sure what you're arguing. Are you saying you'd rather have someone older than Triunfel in this deal? Or, do you just dislike this deal all together?

No - that's my point. If you read my posts, I like Triunfel just fine. But not as a second component - he's all risk. And he's all projection.

He's a GREAT third component in a trade.

This is the same reason I was down on Morrow (and prefer Clement) - lower ceiling, perhaps, but more likely to fulfill it.

A deal with Jones and Triunfel (but not Clement) doesn't mitigate risk nearly enough. Jones is borderline risky, himself. Making having a more sure second component all the more important.

[allstar1579]

Problem was he wasn't 19!

Yeah I know, thats what I was alluding to. You never know what you are going to get.

[Lucky Jim]

Its the idea of getting surer things...If this were anyone else, I would be fine with it but for Bedard, you need as many sure things as you can get.

And when I say sure things, i am talking high ceiling guys...Clement and Jones are examples of this...Get those 2 and then there are many combinations that would work for the other 2 players.

We agree and disagree - I don't LOVE the combination of Jones and Clement (Jones = high ceiling and moderate risk [plate discipline]; Clement = moderate ceiling [is he a catcher? is the power there?] but low risk) but agree philosophically/conceptually.

[Frobby]

Just thought I'd report these league top 20 rankings from BA

PCL

2. Jones

11. Clement

14. Balentien

15. Patton

IL

1. Bruce

2. Bailey

10. Votto

Texas

9. Patton

Eastern

19. Costanzo

Southern

4. Cueto

Fla. State

1. Bruce

5. Cueto

California

3. Tillman

6. Triunfel

Midwest

6. Triunfel

10. Stubbs

[Sports Guy]

Keep in mind that neither Triunfel nor Tillman have to be on the 40 man...I would hope AM wouldn't make a deal based solely on that but still, something to think about.

[Moose Milligan]

No chance we could just keep it to three and get Jones, Clement and Triunfel?

I know that's hitting the crack pipe, but I just thought it'd put it out there. Drop the request for a 4th player and give them Payton or someone else.

[NoVaO]

Is Tillman really THAT far away?

He'll be in AA next year after performing pretty well in what could be the toughest pitchers' park in minor league baseball.

Clement's pretty good, but I feel he is overrated. The value of his bat is basically related to his ability to stay behind the plate.

The difference between a winning team or losing team is not having Clement over Triunfel, IMO.

It may just be that talent that is not major league ready is being undervalued. Billy Beane has taken in a lot of talent that isn't ready yet, but is full of upside.

Triunfel and Tillman of course are higher risk players, but both are top talents with a ton of upside. Sherrill is a guy that we can spin off for much more than the value Chen holds.

So if thats deal, its a very good deal. If Clement is included, and one of the others is taken out, that is also a very good deal. I wouldn't complain either way.

[orangedive]

Jones, Clement, & Truinfel would be enough for me. And I still think that may be too much.

[OregonBird]

Definitely have to get the Bedard trade right. AM is right to ask for the stars.

The Bedard trade will either set us up to compete in 3 years or it will set us back 7.

[Sports Guy]

Is Tillman really THAT far away?

He'll be in AA next year after performing pretty well in what could be the toughest pitchers' park in minor league baseball.

Clement's pretty good, but I feel he is overrated. The value of his bat is basically related to his ability to stay behind the plate.

The difference between a winning team or losing team is not having Clement over Triunfel, IMO.

It may just be that talent that is not major league ready is being undervalued. Billy Beane has taken in a lot of talent that isn't ready yet, but is full of upside.

Triunfel and Tillman of course are higher risk players, but both are top talents with a ton of upside. Sherrill is a guy that we can spin off for much more than the value Chen holds.

So if thats deal, its a very good deal. If Clement is included, and one of the others is taken out, that is also a very good deal. I wouldn't complain either way.

My hope with getting Clement is to either trade him immediately or trade Ramon and put Clement behind the plate.

I hope one of those 2 things happen as opposed to putting him at first.

[Lucky Jim]

Is Tillman really THAT far away?

He'll be in AA next year after performing pretty well in what could be the toughest pitchers' park in minor league baseball.

Clement's pretty good, but I feel he is overrated. The value of his bat is basically related to his ability to stay behind the plate.

The difference between a winning team or losing team is not having Clement over Triunfel, IMO.

It may just be that talent that is not major league ready is being undervalued. Billy Beane has taken in a lot of talent that isn't ready yet, but is full of upside.

Triunfel and Tillman of course are higher risk players, but both are top talents with a ton of upside. Sherrill is a guy that we can spin off for much more than the value Chen holds.

So if thats deal, its an very good deal. If Clement is included, and one of the others is taken out, that is also a very good deal. I wouldn't complain either way.

Fair enough. I certainly respect your opinion. I don't think - however - that young talent is being undervalued on the market...or at least I haven't seen evidence of it. If anything, teams suffer from a serious endowment effect - cherishing their young prodigies, slavishly devoted to their upside, while minimizing their risk when they do their internal accounting.

We're certainly guilty of it. That said, I'd prefer to draft high-ceiling to trading for high ceiling if there's high risk that goes along with it.

I don't like turning high-end, proven MLers into high-risk probabilities as a rule. Call me conservative.

I agree about Clement, though.

[utvolzac]

This deal gives us both. I'm not sure what you're arguing. Are you saying you'd rather have someone older than Triunfel in this deal? Or, do you just dislike this deal all together?

IMO, you have to look at Triunfel almost like a 1st round draft pick. Except he's even young than most high school draft picks. When you look at high school kids taken in the 1st round, their being taken based only on potential and what they are projected to be. Triunfel has tons of upside, but theres also a ton of risk that he'll never live up to his potential. No way he can be the 2nd piece of a Bedard deal IMO.

Teenage pitchers are even more riskier. Can he develop a 3rd pitch? The risk of injury is really high in teenage pitchers. The chances of Tillman living up to his potential are about equal to him suffering an arm injury or not being able to develop the third pitch you need to be a middle-top of the rotation starter in the Majors.

Jones & Clement also have high upside, but they have been developed and proven themselves at upper level minor leagues and in Jones case, has already gotten his feet wet at the MLB level. Your still getting 21-24 year olds for their prime years, but you shed alot of the associated risks.

It's a much smarter play, than risking the bulk of your return for your 1 last valuable trading chip, on a draft pick and a 19 year old arm.

[ChaosLex]

Is Tillman really THAT far away?

He'll be in AA next year after performing pretty well in what could be the toughest pitchers' park in minor league baseball.

Clement's pretty good, but I feel he is overrated. The value of his bat is basically related to his ability to stay behind the plate.

The difference between a winning team or losing team is not having Clement over Triunfel, IMO.

It may just be that talent that is not major league ready is being undervalued. Billy Beane has taken in a lot of talent that isn't ready yet, but is full of upside.

Triunfel and Tillman of course are higher risk players, but both are top talents with a ton of upside. Sherrill is a guy that we can spin off for much more than the value Chen holds.

So if thats deal, its a very good deal. If Clement is included, and one of the others is taken out, that is also a very good deal. I wouldn't complain either way.

I agree. If the deal is Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, and Triunfel, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. I might try to milk them for one more guy, but that's about it. Triunfel might more than a couple years away, but Tillman isn't.

Overall, I'd say that's a pretty good deal for the O's, IMO.

[baltfan]

Keep in mind that neither Triunfel nor Tillman have to be on the 40 man...I would hope AM wouldn't make a deal based solely on that but still, something to think about.

Makes sense if you like your 40 man roster (which they might if they add the Cubs guys plus Jones and maybe Sherrill.)

[utvolzac]

Sherrill is a guy that we can spin off for much more than the value Chen holds.

I think we're all assuming Sherrill's value is as a closer. What happens if he can't close? His drop off in value as a LOOGY is significant. I don't like relief pitching in general, included in the Bedard trade. Just my opinion.