NOW you can complain about the situational hitting

[Nigel Tufnel]

We had a guy who used to come on here and argue with himself to start a troll war. I haven't seen any other the other stuff since Trea had his robots post.

LOL, yeah, I remember that guy. If Jonesy10 and Markakis8 are the same guy, they're doing it wrong.

I just went to Trea's site - it's sad. No posts since April, and before that it was just Trea and Maybe2050 talking to each other.

[SilentJames]

Does anyone look at the numbers?

The Orioles, as a team, with RISP so far:

.282 .342 .462

pretty dang good.

But even with a .282 avg - it means you are going to fail 72% of the time, it happens. it sucks, but it happens. Win the next one.

[AdamK]

You just have to hope that the team can learn from last night and grow from it.

Can't strand a guy on 3rd with no outs anymore. It has happened before this year but not in the final frame.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Honestly it's a discussion board which will always be tied to the last game played. That's how it works and there are plenty of reactionary threads here....certainly the one you mentioned that's not even close to accurate considering we are in third place in the division. The point is the Orioles gave away a very winnable game last night. Hammel gave them a QS despite struggling....the bullpen did what it does and the bats had a off night. But we had the tying run on 3rd with 0 outs in the 9th and our best hitter and Hardy known for hitting the heat and we couldn't manage a sac fly. In addition Urrita looked over matched to me in his last two at bats.

I don't think that being over-reactionary is something to take pride in.

[BobbyWoontz]

I think the Orioles had the perfect batter at the plate with Jones on 3rd and Chrush Davis at the plate. All the stars were lining up for a successful at-bat:

**A right-hander on the mound.

**The infield playing in. Usually they are playing on the outfield grass on the right side.

**No intentional walk considered.

**And the HR and the RBI leader at the plate.

What's not to like? Then the unthinkable happens, Davis striking out on a pitch in the dirt! One of the stars was not lined up correctly.

That's baseball.

[AdamK]

I think the Orioles had the perfect batter at the plate with Jones on 3rd and Chrush Davis at the plate. All the stars were lining up for a successful at-bat:

**A right-hander on the mound.

**The infield playing in. Usually they are playing on the outfield grass on the right side.

**No intentional walk considered.

**And the HR and the RBI leader at the plate.

What's not to like? Then the unthinkable happens, Davis striking out on a pitch in the dirt! One of the stars was not lined up correctly.

That's baseball.

What bugs me was the where that dirt was located. Feet before the plate. Man... coulda had that one last night. Would have been nice.

Hope the offense can grow from it.

[anrynike]

At least they were able to get into position to tie it up in the 9th. They'll bounce back, they always do. Ton of baseball yet to play this season.

[markakis8]

I don't know if anyone has pointed this out, but statistically, this is just wrong. You might find this article informative. Interestingly, the 2009 Orioles had one of the best percentages of runs scored from third with less than 2 outs. I guess you all would like to go back to the 2009 Orioles rather than the 2012 or 2013 Orioles? More interestingly, the ability to score the runner on third with less than two outs doesn't correlate at all with winning percentage.

http://www.azsnakepit.com/2013/3/13/4097416/scoring-runner-third-less-than-two-outs-skill

What do the 2009 Orioles have to do with their situational hitting this year? How many opportunities did the 2009 team get compared to this team thus far?

The fact is, our situational hitting when it matters the most - we choke. This year, not 2009, not 2010....2013.

You do realize our 2009 lineup was COMPLETELY different from our 2013 lineup right? I just have to throw that in there.

[PaulFolk]

The fact is, our situational hitting when it matters the most - we choke. This year, not 2009, not 2010....2013.

You know, it wouldn't be hard to actually look things up before spouting off with wrong information.

The O's are actually a better hitting team with runners on base than they are without them. They have an .807 OPS with men on base (.799 with RISP), compared to .732 with nobody on base and a .763 team OPS overall.

You're making claims that can be proved demonstrably false. Please don't use the word "fact" in your posts unless you actually know what the facts are.

[VeveJones007]

Yeah it would seem that Verve is talking about any situation with the runner at third. Jonesy was talking about with no outs, which was what i was referring to.

It was 11 ABs with a runner at 3rd and fewer than 2 outs.

[RHall31]

You know, it wouldn't be hard to actually look things up before spouting off with wrong information.

The O's are actually a better hitting team with runners on base than they are without them. They have an .807 OPS with men on base (.799 with RISP), compared to .732 with nobody on base and a .763 team OPS overall.

You're making claims that can be proved demonstrably false. Please don't use the word "fact" in your posts unless you actually know what the facts are.

Is there a team stat for scoring efficiency with a runner on third and less than 2 outs? It would be interesting to see how we stack up against MLB in that regard.

[Frobby]

Is there a team stat for scoring efficiency with a runner on third and less than 2 outs? It would be interesting to see how we stack up against MLB in that regard.

Yes, and I cited it already in this thread. The Orioles are at 53% (after our failures of the last few days), the league is at 51%. You can find it here (scroll down to "Team PH/HR/Situ Hitting and look at the right hand side): http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2013-batting.shtml

Note that these are just the sums of the individual players' performance with a runner on 3B and less than two out, and whether the runner advanced or not. It doesn't address the situation where the team fails in that situation, but the next batter bails them out by getting a hit with two outs.

[Frobby]

This really presents an argument for why Chris Davis needs to be hitting cleanup. Jones leads the team with these opportunities (as he would be batting cleanup), but his percentage isn't great. 68% of the time a runner is on 3rd with no out, that runner scores with Chris Davis at the plate compared to 47% for Jones (10 more opportunities for Jones). That's enough of a sample to make me want to bat Davis 4th.

In his career, Jones has produced 51% of the time, which is league average. Davis has produced 50% of the time. Considering that Davis has been striking out 36% of the time in June and July, I wouldn't bet that he'll have a better success rate than Jones in these situations going forward. There may be reasons to prefer Davis hitting 4th, but to me, this isn't a strong one.

[Tx Oriole]

Damn that was frustrating. Great job by Adam to hustle into atriple only to see an awful at bat by Davis and an ineffective one from Hardy. Grrrrrr....

And it continues tonight.

[El Gordo]

And it continues tonight.

To be fair, McLouth hit a ball that was trapped which would have scored a run. Hardy mashed one that also would have scored runs that was caught just barely, and Manny mashed one to 2B that was just caught. They have put some good swings on balls tonight and come up empty.