What is the likely fate of the the three longest tenured Orioles for next season?

[Gurgi]

Brian Roberts is a FA next year and Markakis and JJohnson are potentially gone after 2015.

Brian I see has about a 5% chance on returning to the Orioles in 2014. I think he is likely gone. I think he gets a job somewhere but for about 1 million. And likely not on the Orioles. We have Flaherty and even more we have Schoop.

JJohnson is likely to get a large increase in salary next year in arbitration. However I am not sure DD is likely to think he is worth the salary which will likely be 8-11 million. I could see JJ not getting offered a contract much like Mark Reynolds this year.

Markakis will likely be here next year collecting his 15 million. He has a two million by out for 2015 which I cant see the Orioles picking up. I predict he gets paid the two million and walks after 2014.

JJ could change things quite a bit by a lights out last third of the season. And Markakis might change things with a bounce back season in 2014. But right now the longest tenured Orioles are likely to be looking at the twilight of their Oriole careers.

And looming over the whole thing is potential long term contract offers to Chris Davis and Manny Machado. To a lesser extent Wieters money is going up. And McLouth wont be bargain basement next year if we attempt to resign him. Chen is a FA and will likely demand a very large bump in pay.

So what is our roster likely to look like next year?

[Dipper9]

Brian Roberts is a FA next year and Markakis and JJohnson are potentially gone after 2015.

Brian I see has about a 5% chance on returning to the Orioles in 2014. I think he is likely gone. I think he gets a job somewhere but for about 1 million. And likely not on the Orioles. We have Flaherty and even more we have Schoop.

JJohnson is likely to get a large increase in salary next year in arbitration. However I am not sure DD is likely to think he is worth the salary which will likely be 8-11 million. I could see JJ not getting offered a contract much like Mark Reynolds this year.

Markakis will likely be here next year collecting his 15 million. He has a two million by out for 2015 which I cant see the Orioles picking up. I predict he gets paid the two million and walks after 2014.

JJ could change things quite a bit by a lights out last third of the season. And Markakis might change things with a bounce back season in 2014. But right now the longest tenured Orioles are likely to be looking at the twilight of their Oriole careers.

And looming over the whole thing is potential long term contract offers to Chris Davis and Manny Machado. To a lesser extent Wieters money is going up. And McLouth wont be bargain basement next year if we attempt to resign him. Chen is a FA and will likely demand a very large bump in pay.

So what is our roster likely to look like next year?

We have discussed this before, and its one of the reasons why the time is NOW to make the playoffs. Our roster will be quite different in 2015, and the Yanks will be retooled by then as well. We gotta make hay now or we might miss our chance for a while again.

[Orioles0615]

We have discussed this before, and its one of the reasons why the time is NOW to make the playoffs. Our roster will be quite different in 2015, and the Yanks will be retooled by then as well. We gotta make hay now or we might miss our chance for a while again.

I think the time is now, next year, and 2015.

As for the 3 longest tenured Orioles, my guess is:

Roberts - Not coming back

Jim Johnson - Still think he is non tendered

Markakis - kind of becomes the new Roberts with eating a bunch of money but getting little production. Minus the injuries of course.

[Ripken]

I think the window is just now opening. BRob leaves. He's not producing and it'll be great to get the $10M back. IMO Dan and Buck really like JJ and something long term will be worked out. If Nick hits next season like he's hitting now it's probably a 50/50 to him returning. If he does re-sign (which I think he will) it'll be for far less money. I believe Nick is a PA favorite, too. Were it up to me, and his 2014 looks like his 2013, I'd let him walk.

I think the only regular that might leave in the next couple years is Wieters. Manny and Davis aren't going anywhere. AJ got his deal. It's likely, IMO, that Hardy is re-signed. Nate, too. Most of the pitchers are under control for a while.

[Richmond Bird 9]

I think the time is now, next year, and 2015.

As for the 3 longest tenured Orioles, my guess is:

Roberts - Not coming back

Jim Johnson - Still think he is non tendered

Markakis - kind of becomes the new Roberts with eating a bunch of money but getting little production. Minus the injuries of course.

No way J J is non-tendered, he would be traded for something. There will be a couple teams that would take J J on a one year contract.

[backwardsk]

The Markakis situation is the trickiest, IMO. 17.5M is going to be tough when you have big increases to Davis, Wieters, and Tillman in 2015. But the FA options are pretty slim. We can hope that HU can develop into an everyday corner outfielder. And if they lose McLouth in 2014, then the OF gets thin fast.

[Crazysilver03]

We have discussed this before, and its one of the reasons why the time is NOW to make the playoffs. Our roster will be quite different in 2015, and the Yanks will be retooled by then as well. We gotta make hay now or we might miss our chance for a while again.

I agree with this. This team will be vastly different in two years. There will be some hard decisions that need to be made, especially if there is no increase in payroll.

[atomic]

Brian Roberts will definitely be gone next year and JJ most likely will be as well.

Markakis will be the starting right fielder.

[EagleOriole]

I agree with this. This team will be vastly different in two years. There will be some hard decisions that need to be made, especially if there is no increase in payroll.

Gotta think that payroll will increase modestly as long as we keep winning.

Roberts will retire in my opinion and there is no way we bring him back.

Markakis will get an extension - though more modest - and people here will go nuts.

As for Johnson - he is not getting non-tenured, he has lead the league in saves the last two years. After next year, not sure if the O's will try to extend him or let him go, but he is not getting non-tenured.

I think the Orioles are going to be good for quite a while. We have good young hitting, good young pitching, and at least enough in talent pool with Gausman, Bundy, EdRod, Schoop to keep us good for a nice 5-7 year run.

[Crazysilver03]

While not updated during the season, this link does a good job of giving a glimpse into the future.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dGVNUzk1QWt3b3hzNTZoc21vZ0ZOeEE&output=html

[calmunderfire]

Losing Roberts, Markakis and Jim Johnson is a blessing. They are barely producing above replacement level as a group. That much money for AAA quality is a disaster.

[EagleOriole]

Losing Roberts, Markakis and Jim Johnson is a blessing. They are barely producing above replacement level as a group. That much money for AAA quality is a disaster.

Markakis and JJ are AAA quality. Did you see Ascensio, who is doing great in AAA, when he pitched up here? Roberts is fine, but Markakis and Johnson are quality ML veterans.

[TonySoprano]

Roberts - gone after 2013

Johnson - traded this offseason, salary reasons

Markakis - signed to another contract, personally negotiated by Angelos

[calmunderfire]

Markakis and JJ are AAA quality. Did you see Ascensio, who is doing great in AAA, when he pitched up here? Roberts is fine, but Markakis and Johnson are quality ML veterans.

I'd say Roberts is AAA quality. Markakis is having an AAAA season right now. Looking at this season objectively. Slap a pseudonym on him. Pretend it's his rookie year. He's having a sub type season.

[Guest]

Roberts - gone after 2013

Johnson - traded this offseason, salary reasons

Markakis - signed to another contract, personally negotiated by Angelos

Roberts gone

No one is trading for Jim Johnson just look at his numbers even last year all his numbers sucks. Only good stat he had in 2012 was BABIP and that is coming back to earth in 2013.

Markakis Gone after 2014.