Manny Machado in 2014

[Stotle]

So which of the following would be true?

It took the league four months to figure Manny out.

Manny made a drastic change during the offseason which caused the league to have to scrap his prior book.

The league accidentally lost all the data it had accumulated on Manny from the year before.

Remember that's not really how "books" work. Players are constantly making adjustments, dealing with injuries which alter approach and mechanics, etc. Some aspects of a player's game will remain consistent, but the advance scouts are there to give you a fresh set of notes on what is going on at the time with the player. Where is the player currently vulnerable. Pitchers tend to adjust to those weaknesses, which force the hitter to adjust again. Next time around the "book" is likely to be slightly different.

Often times you'll see young players make a set of adjustments when first arriving. Then, the scouts and statisticians will dig in and give their pitchers ammo to use against the hitter. Onus is then on the hitters to understand what pitchers are trying to do and adjust again. Constant dance back and forth -- pretty great aspect of the game, in my opinion.

[Uli2001]

His offense has declined in the second half along with the rest of the team. It's hard to hit well when no one around you is. "offense is contagious." He will bounce back next year.

[Can_of_corn]

Remember that's not really how "books" work. Players are constantly making adjustments, dealing with injuries which alter approach and mechanics, etc. Some aspects of a player's game will remain consistent, but the advance scouts are there to give you a fresh set of notes on what is going on at the time with the player. Where is the player currently vulnerable. Pitchers tend to adjust to those weaknesses, which force the hitter to adjust again. Next time around the "book" is likely to be slightly different.

Often times you'll see young players make a set of adjustments when first arriving. Then, the scouts and statisticians will dig in and give their pitchers ammo to use against the hitter. Onus is then on the hitters to understand what pitchers are trying to do and adjust again. Constant dance back and forth -- pretty great aspect of the game, in my opinion.

I know, I was being intentionally simplistic in my argument.

The idea that ML teams had no idea how to pitch to Machado and that it took them two months into the season to come up with a viable plan is just silly to me.

[El Gordo]

Yep.

April .814 OPS

May .936

June .762

July .540

Aug. .821

Sept. .507

What ever he was doing in May and August they have figured out.

[Stotle]

I know, I was being intentionally simplistic in my argument.

The idea that ML teams had no idea how to pitch to Machado and that it took them two months into the season to come up with a viable plan is just silly to me.

I think there is some combination of Machado expanding and getting overly aggressive -- sometimes to his benefit due to the hand/eye, and sometimes to his detriment. He will probably be BABIP dependent to a large extent because he puts so many balls in play, so luck will factor in more than typical, since there isn't a steady walk/onbase component. There are also physical variables, such as fatigue, small injuries, etc. which can affect bat speed and power on a game-to-game basis (not to mention focus).

I think it's tough to figure what kind of hitter Manny will ultimately grow into. The raw ability is really impressive -- it should be interesting to see how he decides to approach 2014, and if there are areas of his game he will elect to try and grow/cut down.

[El Gordo]

I think there is some combination of Machado expanding and getting overly aggressive -- sometimes to his benefit due to the hand/eye, and sometimes to his detriment. He will probably be BABIP dependent to a large extent because he puts so many balls in play, so luck will factor in more than typical, since there isn't a steady walk/onbase component. There are also physical variables, such as fatigue, small injuries, etc. which can affect bat speed and power on a game-to-game basis (not to mention focus).

I think it's tough to figure what kind of hitter Manny will ultimately grow into. The raw ability is really impressive -- it should be interesting to see how he decides to approach 2014, and if there are areas of his game he will elect to try and grow/cut down.

I just hope he doesn't bulk up and lose some range/flexibility. Whatever his bat becomes, most of his value will come from his glove.

[Ori-Al]

He's no Mike Trout offensively, yet.

[El Gordo]

OK, I'm trying to articulate an argument that I don't really support personally, but here it is:

- Machado was great for two months before the league figured him out. On May 30, he had an .892 OPS and had accrued 79 hits in a mere 54 games.

- Since then, the league has figured Manny out. In 98 games, he has a .669 OPS (.281 OBP) and has accumulated only 106 hits in 439 PA.

- Thus, the only reason Manny is approaching 200 hits is (1) he was red hot for two months before the league figured him out, and (2) he has had a huge number of plate appearances (second in the league to Pedroia), and he draws almost no walks (he leads the league in at bats).

- So, even though he is nearing 200 hits, there are substantial concerns about whether Machado will be a good hitter in the future.

There's the argument. For me, though, all players have periods of a season where they do better than during other periods, so the fact that a lot of his offensive production came in the first third of the season doesn't concern me that much. His overall numbers are still pretty good, and at age 21 (20 for more than half the season), there's just very little reason to doubt that he'll continue to improve as he matures and learns.

Good theory except how do you explain the .824 OPS in August?

[El Gordo]

He's no Mike Trout offensively, yet.

Trout will never be Manny defensively.

[BarclaySouthway]

I think the OP raised a valid question, and if he hadn't called an OPS+ of 100 "replacement level," his post would not have sounded as critical as it did.

I think the comparison to Adam Jones is an apt one. Manny is way ahead of where Jones was. I think most of us are satisfied with what Jones has become. The one facet of Jones' game that never improved was OBA, and it might play out the same with Manny, as it does with so many players. There is hope for some improvement with Machado, though, in that he doesn't seem to swing from his heels as much as Adam did or get fooled and miss the ball by 2 feet. His approach is more refined than Jones' was when Adam broke in. I would expect that approach to improve immensely over the next 4 or so years. Machado is going to be a feared hitter--I think more so that Jones is now--when he is 25.

And yes, extend him now. You might get a small discount due to Manny's poor second half at the plate.

So I don't expect Manny to ever be a .380+ OBA-guy. As mentioned, that player would probably win 3 MVPs or so. This one will probably only win one or two.

[Rojo13]

Manny will be fine. The kid has never played a full major league season, he's probably dog-tired and they're pitching him tougher now that the scouts have broken him down. Let him grow up.

I agree with you. He's tired but they brought that on themselves. Give him a day off. Bench him. He's hitting what 240-250 for the second half?

I know they love the consecutive games streak and are seemingly trying to make him into an icon but if Buck benched it might anger him in a good way. It's good for everyone to get a slap on the wrist every now on them. The kid is hitting horribly for whatever reason in the 2nd half.

The question is why is he struggling so much at the plate for the 2nd half? Is it, a) "The I'm a star" talk got to him? b) the league has adjusted? c) Post 21st birthday related (July 6th)? I have no idea.

That being said, early in the season, I am still WAY LONG on Manny. I told a buddy early in the season I wish one could bet whether or not Manny would make the HOF as I'd definitely take it. I probably still would.

Yes the fact that he's nearing 200 hits is a results of the fact that he plays every single day and never walks, but he's still nearing the alltime major league record for doubles by a 3rd baseman.

How how do you from 310 to 240-50?

[Can_of_corn]

I agree with you. He's tired but they brought that on themselves. Give him a day off. Bench him. He's hitting what 240-250 for the second half?

I know they love the consecutive games streak and are seemingly trying to make him into an icon but if Buck benched it might anger him in a good way. It's good for everyone to get a slap on the wrist every now on them. The kid is hitting horribly for whatever reason in the 2nd half.

The question is why is he struggling so much at the plate for the 2nd half? Is it, a) "The I'm a star" talk got to him? b) the league has adjusted? c) Post 21st birthday related (July 6th)? I have no idea.

That being said, early in the season, I am still WAY LONG on Manny. I told a buddy early in the season I wish one could bet whether or not Manny would make the HOF as I'd definitely take it. I probably still would.

Yes the fact that he's nearing 200 hits is a results of the fact that he plays every single day and never walks, but he's still nearing the alltime major league record for doubles by a 3rd baseman.

How how do you from 310 to 240-50?

Where do you get that from?

Buck likes having his starters out there. I think that is pretty much all there is to it.

[Barnaby Graves]

Good theory except how do you explain the .824 OPS in August?

A .340 BABIP to go with his highest walk rate in any month, 5.8%.

His ISO was only .140 compared to .165 and .202 in March/April and May, respectively. You probably could've guessed that yourself since he isn't hitting as many doubles as he was in those torrid first couple months.

[calmunderfire]

Yes the league is always making adjustments, but there are two things that have been ignored.

1. Higher profile players are taken more seriously by pitchers and catchers and looking for their weaknesses is prioritized over the no names. I think we can all agree that Machado's profile as a hitter increased drastically after the first third of the season.

2. Sometimes hitters struggle against certain adjustments made by the league. A hitter may adjust well to more off speed pitches for example, but maybe they struggle with other adjustments made by the league. Such as more sliders, keeping the ball down in the zone more and expanding the zone because the player hasn't demonstrated an adequate batting eye.

[El Gordo]

A .340 BABIP to go with his highest walk rate in any month, 5.8%.

His ISO was only .140 compared to .165 and .202 in March/April and May, respectively. You probably could've guessed that yourself since he isn't hitting as many doubles as he was in those torrid first couple months.

So you are saying he just got lucky in August?