Orioles in the Arizona Fall League (AFL), 2013

[QBsILLEST1]

Agreed. As a 1B or corner OF he's pretty intriguing but if he can handle catcher defensively, that's a big bonus. Although, CanoCorn is correct in not reading too much into AFL stats, I'm starting to wonder who is actually the better prospect, Ohlman or Schoop. Schoop is a year younger and played two levels higher and also plays important positions. However, Ohlman had the more impressive offensive season by far, and is currently outperforming Schoop in the AFL. Schoop definitely has great offensive potential but Ohlman seems to have the more refined approach at the plate.

You know, I was actually going to say something along the same lines regarding Schoop vs. Ohlman, however I didn't want to sound like I was being reactionary, however, my question honestly is, at what point do we stop putting so much faith into projection(Schoop) vs. present tools, skills and production(Ohlman).

[skanar]

Agreed. As a 1B or corner OF he's pretty intriguing but if he can handle catcher defensively, that's a big bonus. Although, CanoCorn is correct in not reading too much into AFL stats, I'm starting to wonder who is actually the better prospect, Ohlman or Schoop. Schoop is a year younger and played two levels higher and also plays important positions. However, Ohlman had the more impressive offensive season by far, and is currently outperforming Schoop in the AFL. Schoop definitely has great offensive potential but Ohlman seems to have the more refined approach at the plate.

Historically speaking, there's just no comparison. Plenty of players have had seasons just as good as Ohlman's at 22 in A+ ball and failed to be successful (about 20% success rate for players who hit as well as Ohlman). Relatively few players who were 20 in AA and 21 in AAA have not been successful (about 50% success rate for players who hit as well as Schoop). Not to mention the fact that Schoop is essentially certain to stick at a demanding defensive position while Ohlman may or may not.

Consider this: Schoop hit about 1.300 between Rookie ball and A- this year while rehabbing (47 PAs). What would you expect his stat line to be if he were playing at Frederick this year? And he's a year younger than Ohlman - suppose he were at Delmarva? Think he could hit 1.000 there? That would put him on the same age/league track as Ohlman.

[skanar]

You know, I was actually going to say something along the same lines regarding Schoop vs. Ohlman, however I didn't want to sound like I was being reactionary, however, my question honestly is, at what point do we stop putting so much faith into projection(Schoop) vs. present tools, skills and production(Ohlman).

Sorry for the double post, but it's not about projection vs production, though Schoop is one year younger. It's about the level of competition. Schoop was competing against AAA pitching (journeyman AAAA guys, major league depth, 22-24 yo prospects, and maybe a few very experienced org players). Ohlman was hitting against A+ pitching (20-22 yo prospects and 23-25 yo org players). As I asked in the post above, suppose they switched leagues - what results would you expect from each guy?

Adrian Marin and Josh Hart are players where you're looking at projection and discounting present poor production.

And honestly, if Schoop was a +5 or +10 defender at 2B and put up this year's AAA stat line in the majors, he'd already be about a 2 win player over a full season (compare Roberts this year: 1/2 season, almost identical OPS, +0 defense = 0.7 WAR). While I am of course hoping for more, it's wrong to say that Schoop isn't productive.

[skanar]

It's also about approach at the plate. Ohlman shows patience. Schoop has not. Schoop has OPS'd right around .700 at his last 3 stops (A+/AA/AAA). Maybe Schoop would have OPS'd 1.000 or .950 or whatever had he played in Frederick. Still, it's not just about numbers, it's about approach. Ohlman is showing a good one and Schoop is not and has not. I appreciate your research but it's not as easy as saying a guy who is this age and does this at this level will do this in the future.

BTW, Schoop had AB's at rookie level GCL, rookie A ball short season in Aberdeen, and in Norfolk. Zero full season A ball AB's.

I'm not a scout, so if the general opinion was that Schoop had problems with his swing and Ohlman didn't, that would be an important factor to take into account. Can you point me to a scouting report suggesting Schoop has a bad approach at the plate?

I'm not sure what you mean by "patience." Ohlman does walk more than Schoop (12.3% vs 7.9%), but I couldn't find any predictive power for minor league walk rate. However, Schoop strikes out significantly less than Ohlman (15.4% vs 22.4%). If you want to argue that therefore Ohlman probably is taking more pitches, that's reasonable, but I'm not convinced that "taking more pitches" correlates with MLB success - maybe BB rate + K rate is something I could investigate. Certainly there are plenty of successful MLB players who have a "make-contact" approach at the plate (low BB/low K, like Schoop) and there are also plenty of successful MLB players who have a "patient" approach at the plate (high BB/high K, like Ohlman).

There's undoubtedly more to predicting prospects than what I'm working on (which is really just a quantification of age/league/performance). And my predictions certainly do not have any certainty - I always give a percentage chance that something will happen - so I think Schoop has a 50% chance at a successful MLB career which means I also think he has a 50% chance to NOT have one.

But there's a huge difference in my results for Ohlman and Schoop right now and I feel pretty confident ranking the one over the other, with one major caveat; namely, that I don't have AAA stats yet and can't evaluate Schoop's performance this season directly. Again, that's not to say Schoop will succeed and Ohlman will not. Plenty of 50% shots fail (half of them, in fact) and plenty of 20% shots succeed. But I'd still trade the near-die roll for the coin flip every time.

Also, I think the biggest omission from my stats-based approach is position/defense, which I completely ignore. This leads my system to overrate prospects like Nick Delmonico, who has serious defensive issues but puts up good hitting numbers for his age/league. But when it comes to Schoop and Ohlman, I think you'd have to give the defensive edge to Schoop right now (as far as the scouting reports I've read go), suggesting that my head-to-head age/league/performance comparison is likely to overrate Ohlman and underrate Schoop.

Still, they are both playing against the same level of competition right now and Schoop is really struggling while Ohlman is hitting well. I don't think the AFL will give a large enough sample size for me to weight it over my modeling but it's certainly a reason to reconsider.

And yeah, I specifically wrote that Schoop played at Rookie and A- in my post. Presumably his hitting numbers at A+ would fall somewhere in between his low-level hitting and his AAA hitting.

I think there's an interesting prospect-development question hidden in your post: suppose you have a good prospect who is age 19. You know he will hit .700 in A+, .800 in A, and .900 in rookie ball. Where would you have him play the season - with more success against weaker competition or only ok results against more advanced players? Which approach (aggressive promotion or comfortable numbers) will promote more MLB success? Does it even matter?

[weams]

It's also about approach at the plate. Ohlman shows patience. Schoop has not. Schoop has OPS'd right around .700 at his last 3 stops (A+/AA/AAA). Maybe Schoop would have OPS'd 1.000 or .950 or whatever had he played in Frederick. Still, it's not just about numbers, it's about approach. Ohlman is showing a good one and Schoop is not and has not. I appreciate your research but it's not as easy as saying a guy who is this age and does this at this level will do this in the future.

BTW, Schoop had AB's at rookie level GCL, rookie A ball short season in Aberdeen, and in Norfolk. Zero full season A ball AB's.

I think his research is solid and I do think that outliers occur. But it is a good basis for expectations. Age really is a big deal.

[Can_of_corn]

I think his research is solid and I do think that outliers occur. But it is a good basis for expectations. Age really is a big deal.

Shhh!

New Shiny better then old Shiny.

Always!

Seriously this reminds me of spring training where Gausman looked better then (an eventually discovered to be injured) Bundy. You do not forgo years of player evaluations because Schoop is struggling in the AFL and Ohlman hit a home run yesterday.

Two years is a huge chasm when it comes to prospects.

[Oneoftheguys]

Stop making Schoop out to be so much younger than Ohlman. He is 10 months younger and actually played a season with DSL before Ohlman even got his 11 AB's with GCL after he signed. Add in Ohlman's car accident and suspension year; I'd say on the age issue it is a pretty level playing field.

[Redskins Rick]

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2013/10/updating-urrutia-in-afl.html

Urrutia is having a hot time with the bat, but sore elbow, reduces him to the DH role, they were hoping he got some outfield time, in case they dont resign McLouth.

[Redskins Rick]

I was excited about Urrutia last year when he put up great numbers in Bowie and showed some power. Less power at Norfolk and even less in his short time in the ML. The average is great but I need to see some power from him. I hope the plan is for him to start out at Norfolk and force his way up. Same for Schoop.

I see Schoop on the roster next year in the UIF role. depending on his spring production.

[skanar]

Stop making Schoop out to be so much younger than Ohlman. He is 10 months younger and actually played a season with DSL before Ohlman even got his 11 AB's with GCL after he signed. Add in Ohlman's car accident and suspension year; I'd say on the age issue it is a pretty level playing field.

It's not purely age, it's age/league. Schoop is 10 months younger AND played 2 levels higher than Ohlman this past season. For their stats to be directly comparable (ie for them to have the same age/league profile), Schoop would have had to play at Delmarva this year, not AAA.

New shiny? Maybe but this isn't exactly the first time I've brought up Ohlman's name over the last two years. If you think it's not even close and it's not wroth the discussion, so be it.

Everything is always worth discussion, but yes, right now I think it isn't close.

Seems to me that by the end of this year, if Ohlman has a good year in Bowie and is still catching, it might not be so preposterous.

Yes, if Ohlman has a good year and Schoop a bad one, they'll be much closer and it's possible that Ohlman will pass Schoop. For instance, Ohlman hitting 1.000 at Bowie next year gives him a 57% chance of success, which is quite high. Hitting .900 would be a 42% chance. Schoop is probably sitting around 40% right now, and a bad year would drop that.

[weams]

I was excited about Urrutia last year when he put up great numbers in Bowie and showed some power. Less power at Norfolk and even less in his short time in the ML.

Henry Urrutia hit his first home run today for the Surprise Saguaros of the Arizona Fall League, and it came with the bases loaded.

It also traveled a long way.

Urrutia drove a ball off the top of the batter's eye in center field, according to a tweet from the league (@MLBazFallLeague).

...

Instant update: Urrutia also doubled today, making him 3-for-4 and raising his average to .462.

Roch. Part Two

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2013/10/updating-urrutia-in-afl---part-ii.html

[weams]

Stop making Schoop out to be so much younger than Ohlman. He is 10 months younger and actually played a season with DSL before Ohlman even got his 11 AB's with GCL after he signed. Add in Ohlman's car accident and suspension year; I'd say on the age issue it is a pretty level playing field.

No doubt that Mike Ohlman is not old. He is not a Caleb Joseph. This will need to be his year though.

[hoosiers]

Stop making Schoop out to be so much younger than Ohlman. He is 10 months younger and actually played a season with DSL before Ohlman even got his 11 AB's with GCL after he signed. Add in Ohlman's car accident and suspension year; I'd say on the age issue it is a pretty level playing field.

Schoop lost a large portion of this year to his own injury ...

Nearly everything we have read about Schoop regards him to have a plus major league bat and I think it is fair to speculate that Schoop would be a top 75 prospect without the injury time, but I still expect him to make the BA Top 100. Ohlman seems to hit the ball very hard to generate the xbhs, but hasn't seemed to generate the same recognition as a national propect - so we'll see. AA will be an excellent test for MO.

I'm glad they are both Orioles prospects.

[weams]

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131026&content_id=63367124&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

Tim Berry

[stef]

Schoop is heading home for a few days, due to a death in his family. He will be back next week.

In a hitter's league, Alvarez isn't (.213). But he doesn't strike out much.

Kline, in 2IP, had 4Ks and 0BBs on the 30th. That followed two poor outings.

Ohlman made his first start at catcher on the 30th. He was charged with an error (throw), there were 2 SBs and 3 WPs. Just reporting.