Will Markakis sign with the O's before the FA signing begin? (Option Declined)

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

I didn't down vote you but your logic is flawed. And you put something as fact when it is not.  Signing Nick would have been a good decision.  If you don't see that I am guessing you were against signing him at the time and you don't want to admit you were wrong. 

Check out the data and analysis. Markakis was a below average to low valuable RF in baseball during basically  the whole deal. He was better than the Orioles RF three out of the four years, but that’s because they mega sucked. The Orioles should have gotten a better RF. Turns out most teams had one during those years. 2018 was the only year Markakis was above average in value and that was 0.4 WINS Above Average. That’s not great. 

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Check out the data and analysis. Markakis was a below average to low valuable RF in baseball during basically  the whole deal. He was better than the Orioles RF three out of the four years, but that’s because they mega sucked. The Orioles should have gotten a better RF. Turns out most teams had one during those years. 2018 was the only year Markakis was above average in value and that was 0.4 WINS Above Average. That’s not great. 

Your logic is completely flawed.  First off an average right fielder in the major leagues is a good player.  16 teams had below average right field production.  Average is not that good of a stat.  Because you  have one guy who is producing a ton more than everyone else and it pulls the average production way up.  You should be looking at median production not average production.  

This year only 4 right fielders in all of baseball were significantly better than average. Here they are:

Mookie Betts
Aarron Judge
Christian Yelich
Mitch Haniger
 

None of those guys have ever been free agents.  So there was no way for the Orioles to get them in free agency.  Mookie Betts had 8.1 WAR above average. The rest of the teams in the majors that were above average in the major leagues combined by 13.8 WAR above average.  The average WAR per position is a pretty meaningless stat.  

The Braves got 2.6 WAR from Markakis this year.  Machado was the only player on the Orioles with that much WAR last season.  He had 2.9 WAR.  He might not have helped much last year.  

[Ohfan67]

13 hours ago, atomic said:

Your logic is completely flawed.  First off an average right fielder in the major leagues is a good player.  16 teams had below average right field production.  Average is not that good of a stat.  Because you  have one guy who is producing a ton more than everyone else and it pulls the average production way up.  You should be looking at median production not average production.  

This year only 4 right fielders in all of baseball were significantly better than average. Here they are:

Mookie Betts
Aarron Judge
Christian Yelich
Mitch Haniger
 

None of those guys have ever been free agents.  So there was no way for the Orioles to get them in free agency.  Mookie Betts had 8.1 WAR above average. The rest of the teams in the majors that were above average in the major leagues combined by 13.8 WAR above average.  The average WAR per position is a pretty meaningless stat.  

The Braves got 2.6 WAR from Markakis this year.  Machado was the only player on the Orioles with that much WAR last season.  He had 2.9 WAR.  He might not have helped much last year.  

The list I linked was WAA by position. Sort by right field column. It’s pretty easy. Markakis has a good year last year and was barely above average. He was a below average RF the other three years of the deal. The Braves and the Orioles could have done much better in RF over those four years. If you don’t like WAR or WAA look at the raw numbers. In a new home run ERA Markakis hit like a second baseman, not a RF. Granted one with very good on base skills. I’m not hating on Markakis. He was one of my favorite Orioles. But he has been a powerless RF for years. The Braves May have broken even on his contract in a Fangraphs type analysis, but they, and the Orioles, could have fielded a better RF. Many teams did. 

 

And yes, RF tends to be manned by good players, not guys who hit like stereotypical second baseman. That’s the point. Again, it probabsounds like I’m hating on Markakis, but I’m just looking at RF during his contract. It’s not really surprising that a RF with his power numbers is what he is. He has been a steady player, but a RF with no power and speed. 

 

You keep saying flawed logic, but I see no logic in your argument. Markakis’ OPS+ for his time with the Braves was 105 and he hit 38 home runs in four years. 38 home runs in four years. Yeah, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb when I say the Braves and Orioles could have done better. 

[TommyPickles]

Markakis had a 6.8 rWAR over his 4-year contract in Atlanta.

In the final year, he won a gold glove, made the All Star Game, and they returned to the playoffs.

He was worth it. 

[Redskins Rick]

hindsight is a great tool to have when discussing past events.

Nick had a better 4 year run after his Oriole contract, then most fans thought he would have. Including the many Cake lovers here in OH. Yours truly includes.

6.8 WAR  at 44 million, could be considered a bargain, depending on the dollar value assigned to 1 WAR.

Devils advocate.

If they kept him, and he played here like his 2013 season, then OH would be up in arms, why we waste the money and of course, the FO is stupid?

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

The list I linked was WAA by position. Sort by right field column. It’s pretty easy. Markakis has a good year last year and was barely above average. He was a below average RF the other three years of the deal. The Braves and the Orioles could have done much better in RF over those four years. If you don’t like WAR or WAA look at the raw numbers. In a new home run ERA Markakis hit like a second baseman, not a RF. Granted one with very good on base skills. I’m not hating on Markakis. He was one of my favorite Orioles. But he has been a powerless RF for years. The Braves May have broken even on his contract in a Fangraphs type analysis, but they, and the Orioles, could have fielded a better RF. Many teams did. 

  

And yes, RF tends to be manned by good players, not guys who hit like stereotypical second baseman. That’s the point. Again, it probabsounds like I’m hating on Markakis, but I’m just looking at RF during his contract. It’s not really surprising that a RF with his power numbers is what he is. He has been a steady player, but a RF with no power and speed. 

  

You keep saying flawed logic, but I see no logic in your argument. Markakis’ OPS+ for his time with the Braves was 105 and he hit 38 home runs in four years. 38 home runs in four years. Yeah, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb when I say the Braves and Orioles could have done better. 

Did you even read my post? It doesn't seem like it.  

[Ohfan67]

12 minutes ago, atomic said:

Did you even read my post? It doesn't seem like it.  

I did. It said Nick had a good year last year, right fielders tend to be good, etc. It did not change the fact that Markakis was relatively weak three of the last four years. I would ask you the same question. We seem to be talking past each other. 

[Ohfan67]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2016&lg=MLB&stat=WAR

 

You can sort that table by WAR (as above), but go to upper right hand side and you can sort by oWAR and other stat flavors. Keep reclicking RF each time to make sure you are sorting by RF. Atlanta is below the median (15th place) in basically every value estimating category three out of four of Nick's years in Atlanta and are often near the bottom. Did he "earn" his contract with Atlanta in a Fangraphs type analysis. Probably. Was he better than what the Orioles dragged out to RF? Yes for three of the four years (Trumbo was more valuable in 2016). Would the Orioles have been better on the field with Markakis over the life of his contract? Yes. But the truth is Atlanta and the Orioles could have done better. Most teams put more productive RF's on the field over those four years. I honestly don't see how anyone can argue that. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

. I honestly don't see how anyone can argue that. 

In OH, they can argue pretty much anything. The wold is flat, walks are better than home runs, going to the bathroom at work.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

I did. It said Nick had a good year last year, right fielders tend to be good, etc. It did not change the fact that Markakis was relatively weak three of the last four years. I would ask you the same question. We seem to be talking past each other. 

I said average was meaningless and provided details to why and then you told me to look at the averages. I think you are just trying to justify your mistaken opinion.  We all make mistakes it is Ok to admit you were wrong. 

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2016&lg=MLB&stat=WAR

 

You can sort that table by WAR (as above), but go to upper right hand side and you can sort by oWAR and other stat flavors. Keep reclicking RF each time to make sure you are sorting by RF. Atlanta is below the median (15th place) in basically every value estimating category three out of four of Nick's years in Atlanta and are often near the bottom. Did he "earn" his contract with Atlanta in a Fangraphs type analysis. Probably. Was he better than what the Orioles dragged out to RF? Yes for three of the four years (Trumbo was more valuable in 2016). Would the Orioles have been better on the field with Markakis over the life of his contract? Yes. But the truth is Atlanta and the Orioles could have done better. Most teams put more productive RF's on the field over those four years. I honestly don't see how anyone can argue that. 

Show me all the players available as free agents the year we didn't sign Markakis. Show me all the ones that were better than Markakis.  

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, atomic said:

I said average was meaningless and provided details to why and then you told me to look at the averages. I think you are just trying to justify your mistaken opinion.  We all make mistakes it is Ok to admit you were wrong. 

Whatever. I may have used the word average, and one metric used was Wins Above Average, but I am not comparing Markakis' production to the average RF. I am comparing Markakis production and the production of the Orioles right fielders to right field production for EVERY team, individually. I linked the data twice. The majority of teams in every year but one had more productive right fields. That's true if you use "modern" value metrics or if you use more traditional stats like OPS. If you want names, then look at who played right field for the majority of teams during those years. The majority of the teams in baseball fielded more productive right fielders than Atlanta and the Orioles. In some years of the deal almost every team got more production from right field than the Braves. If you want to do the silly internet arguing thing with the second statement I bolded, then fine. I'll consider our "discussion" over. Now, where's the ignore button...

[weams]

Gold Glove. Silver Slugger.

[Can_of_corn]

8 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

In OH, they can argue pretty much anything. The wold is flat, walks are better than home runs, going to the bathroom at work.

What constitutes a sandwich.

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What constitutes a sandwich.

Meat Bread or roll. Sammich.