Jon Heyman: Agent, GM, and His Guess on Free Agents

[weams]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24795422/mlb-free-agency-top-50-where-they-may-sign-and-what-they-will-get

I've enlisted the same GM and agent as last winter to make their best guesses once again for the top players in this winter's free-agent market, and this time we will cover a nice round top 50. Of course, we will all have our fingers crossed that we can do better than last time (at least the GM and I have that hope; the agent did amazingly well last time). Out of the top 65 free agents last year, the agent had the best guess almost half the time, while the GM and I did about equally poorly, splitting the rest.

[Frobby]

11. Nelson Cruz, OF/DH: The Orioles are said to have started at about $30 million for two years, which is still better than the $8 million, one-year bargain he became last spring when the double whammy of the draft pick and Biogenesis got him. He aided his rep with a big year (he led the majors with 40 home runs and actually hit better on the road than at Camden Yards). But most see him settling below his four-year asking price. Agent: 3 years, $55M. GM: 3 years, $45M. Me: 3 years, $54M.

* * *

13. Nick Markakis, OF: He was reportedly "progressing" a few days ago on an Orioles deal, and that makes sense considering how much both owner Peter Angelos and manager Buck Showalter love him. Two things that make him a potential overpay: 1) He's a gamer; 2) No draft-pick attachment. Agent: 4 years, $50M. GM: 4 years, $50M. Me: 4 years, $40M.

* * *

18. Andrew Miller, RP: He showed what a weapon he can be after the trade from Boston to Baltimore, which gave up a nice prospect in lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to get him. The Tigers came close and could use him, the Cubs wouldn't mind him, and so might almost every other team. Under those conditions, he may shock here. Agent: 3 years, $28.5M. GM: 3 years, $22M. Me: 4 years, $40M.

I'm one of Nick's biggest fans, but 4/$50 mm would be very surprising to me. I doubt Cruz gets $18 mm/yr either. Miller I think will be somewhere between what the GM says and what the agent says.

[Mayor McCheese]

I'm one of Nick's biggest fans, but 4/$50 mm would be very surprising to me. I doubt Cruz gets $18 mm/yr either. Miller I think will be somewhere between what the GM says and what the agent says.

I'd sign Miller for 3/$22MM. Yes. Go. Collect $200.

[Ven6]

I'd sign Miller for 3/$22MM. Yes. Go. Collect $200.

Me too. And I'll take Cruz at 3/45. Pass on Nick at those prices.

[Dipper9]

Me too. And I'll take Cruz at 3/45. Pass on Nick at those prices.

I'd offer Cruz 3/40 and see is he bites.

[weams]

I'd sign Miller for 3/$22MM. Yes. Go. Collect $200.

But what if he gets 4/40?

[weams]

28. Michael Cuddyer, OF: A terrific player and clubhouse influence whose only drawback is his age (35). Cuddyer is likely to stay in Colorado, where he won a batting title in 2013 and hit .332 in an injury-shortened '14. The Rockies made the qualifying offer, showing their love while inhibiting his market. Beloved by manager Walt Weiss (and everyone else there). Agent: 1 year, $15.3M. GM: 2 years, $20M. Me: 1 year, $15.3M.

He chose not to be the Prime Program.

[Frobby]

He chose not to be the Prime Program.

I wonder if the GM Heyman is talking with is Sandy Alderson.

[weams]

I wonder if the GM Heyman is talking with is Sandy Alderson.

Could Easily Be. I wonder who the agent is?

[Frobby]

Could Easily Be. I wonder who the agent is?

I doubt it's Boras -- the agent guesses are too reasonable.

[weams]

I doubt it's Boras -- the agent guesses are too reasonable.

Very good point.

[waroriole]

Could Easily Be. I wonder who the agent is?

Does Scott let him talk to other agents?

[weams]

Does Scott let him talk to other agents?

Thread winner.

[wildcard]

I would let all three of them go at those prices.

The most intriguing FAs on the list are LaRoche and Morales at the prices stated. Not that I would rush into anything at this point.

[Mayor McCheese]

But what if he gets 4/40?

Still sign him. I think you almost have too. Since our starters struggle to go 6 innings we need to have a strong bullpen and Miller is lights out.

Do it.