Would you take Melky Cabrera on a 3 year deal?

[clapdiddy]

Take away last year and Pearce has been a replacement-level player over parts of 7 ML seasons. If he reverts back to the production you mention, he'll be lucky to get an ML deal. I don't think he will, but it's at least as likely as him replicating a 5 WAR season. Would you want to be saddled with paying 2/21 or 3/33 to a replacement-level guy? That's a massive waste of resources.

I do think the extension idea has merit, though. Pearce has never seen real guaranteed money or years in his life. I'm sure he trusts in his abilities, but he'd be wise to take big league money while it's on the table. 3/15 is more than enough compensation for 400 great PAs, and still leaves all the risk on Baltimore (2/12) if he regresses completely.

Thanks for this dose of reality.

[DrungoHazewood]

BTW am I the only one who would offer Pearce a 3/24+ extension ASAP?

You want a three year extension for a 31-year-old who's had 2/3rds of one good MLB season?

[DrungoHazewood]

Oh, and Melky at three years for $40-50M? No thank you. He's Markakis with different baggage but similar production. If you didn't want Nick back at 4/40 why Melky for more per annum?

[mikegallo]

]Take away last year and Pearce has been a replacement-level player over parts of 7 ML seasons. If he reverts back to the production you mention' date=' he'll be lucky to get an ML deal.[/b'] I don't think he will, but it's at least as likely as him replicating a 5 WAR season. Would you want to be saddled with paying 2/21 or 3/33 to a replacement-level guy? That's a massive waste of resources.

I do think the extension idea has merit, though. Pearce has never seen real guaranteed money or years in his life. I'm sure he trusts in his abilities, but he'd be wise to take big league money while it's on the table. 3/15 is more than enough compensation for 400 great PAs, and still leaves all the risk on Baltimore (2/12) if he regresses completely.

Wrong Steve was on pace for over 3 wins in 2013 and over those seasons he never got more than 188 at bats so your saying those seasons should count more than his two most recent years...

Btw in the last two years in a little over 500 at bats he has been worth 5.7 WAR.....Steamer projects him to be worth 3.1 WAR and have a wRC+ of 129 next year....The guy has a career wRC+ of 110 and OBP of .337...

And the guy has a career minor league OPS of .897 over 2619 AB.....

Oh and in 2008 BP had him as the 43 BEST PROSPECT IN BASEBALL.....Just to recap

You guys want to give a former top prospect in baseball 5 million a year who crushed the minors and in his ONLY EXTENED ACTION IN THE BIGS HAD A 167 wRC+ AND WAS A TOP 10 PLAYER IN ALL OF BASEBALL LAST YEAR....

Like I said 3/24 is a steal....I'm right your wrong....I came with facts and you came with cliques like one year wonder....

Sorry your just WRONG!...GAME OVER lol just kidding, but you are wrong tho...

[Reboulet'sStache]

Oh, and Melky at three years for $40-50M? No thank you. He's Markakis with different baggage but similar production. If you didn't want Nick back at 4/40 why Melky for more per annum?

And the loss of your draft pick.

[DrungoHazewood]

And the loss of your draft pick.

Yea, that, too. That's like tacking on an additional $5M or so.

[DrungoHazewood]

Wrong Steve was on pace for over 3 wins in 2013 and over those seasons he never got more than 188 at bats so your saying those seasons should count more than his two most recent years...

Btw in the last two years in a little over 500 at bats he has been worth 5.7 WAR.....Steamer projects him to be worth 3.1 WAR and have a wRC+ of 129 next year....The guy has a career wRC+ of 110 and OBP of .337...

And the guy has a career minor league OPS of .897 over 2619 AB.....

Oh and in 2008 BP had him as the 43 BEST PROSPECT IN BASEBALL.....Just to recap

You guys want to give a former top prospect in baseball 5 million a year who crushed the minors and in his ONLY EXTENED ACTION IN THE BIGS HAD A 167 wRC+ AND WAS A TOP 10 PLAYER IN ALL OF BASEBALL LAST YEAR....

Like I said 3/24 is a steal....I'm right your wrong....I came with facts and you came with cliques like one year wonder....

Sorry your just WRONG!...GAME OVER lol just kidding, but you are wrong tho...

You can project all kinds of stuff. But the facts are Pearce accumulated about 90% of his career value in a partial age 31 season. If you're not identifying him as a huge regression candidate you're doing something wrong.

The reason 2014 was his first extended action in the bigs was that this was the first time his play merited extended playing time. In 2008 he got semi-regular playing time in July and August, but was OPSing .621 until a late surge pushed him just over .700. In 2009 he played pretty regularly in July and August but had a .665 OPS. In 2010 he must have been hurt, and only got a handful of PAs for a 57-win Pirates team. He spent most of 2011 with the Pirates but didn't perform well at all (.515 OPS) in a reserve/pinch hitting role. By 2012 he was 29 and started bouncing around, with no team really enamored with him.

Yes, he was a decently-rated prospect six or seven years ago. He was five spots behind Brandon Wood. In the same vicinity as Fernando Martinez. And Angel Villalona. And Daric Barton and Andy LaRoche.

[mikegallo]

You can project all kinds of stuff. But the facts are Pearce accumulated about 90% of his career value in a partial age 31 season. If you're not identifying him as a huge regression candidate you're doing something wrong.

The reason 2014 was his first extended action in the bigs was that this was the first time his play merited extended playing time. In 2008 he got semi-regular playing time in July and August, but was OPSing .621 until a late surge pushed him just over .700. In 2009 he played pretty regularly in July and August but had a .665 OPS. In 2010 he must have been hurt, and only got a handful of PAs for a 57-win Pirates team. He spent most of 2011 with the Pirates but didn't perform well at all (.515 OPS) in a reserve/pinch hitting role. By 2012 he was 29 and started bouncing around, with no team really enamored with him.

Yes, he was a decently-rated prospect six or seven years ago. He was five spots behind Brandon Wood. In the same vicinity as Fernando Martinez. And Angel Villalona. And Daric Barton and Andy LaRoche.

But given his clear adjustments to his batting stance this year and his track record of hitting everywhere except as a rookie in baseball (ALL those seasons are less than a full year together)......He looks to me the perfect guy to take a chance on for the O's...

We need surplus value and a lot of it going forward to stay a contender and given our lack of depth in the minors and our upcoming exdus of impact players the next year or so the O's can't afford not to take a small gamble (yes 8 million a year is a very small gamble in today's mlb) on a guy who has a massive track record of hitting....

I am shocked there aren't more posters all over giving him a small extension for a big potential reward.....In an era of 7+ million a win spending if Pearce is worth 1.4 WAR going forward his contract is decent and I would be SHOCKED if he isn't worth at least 6.5 wins in the next 3 years (more likely 8ish wins imo).....And an 8 win player over 3 years has a market value of 56 million....

Somewhere this Org needs to take some risk....Everything we know about Pearce the player/person tells us he is a very good risk/reward going forward.

[mikegallo]

I'll shut up about Pearce now since this is off topic anyway, but let's pull this thread up again when Steve gets his next contract....

Back to Melky, I just don't think the O's are a team that can take this type of risk on a guy who is likely average....And losing a pick really hurts us even though we have many and more coming next year...

Our farm system lacks depth big time....Imagine how bad it will be when Bundy gets to the bigs....If we have a bad draft and Bundy moves up we will have a bottom 5 system in the league imo...

[DrungoHazewood]

But given his clear adjustments to his batting stance this year and his track record of hitting everywhere except as a rookie in baseball (ALL those seasons are less than a full year together)......He looks to me the perfect guy to take a chance on for the O's...

We need surplus value and a lot of it going forward to stay a contender and given our lack of depth in the minors and our upcoming exdus of impact players the next year or so the O's can't afford not to take a small gamble (yes 8 million a year is a very small gamble in today's mlb) on a guy who has a massive track record of hitting....

I am shocked there aren't more posters all over giving him a small extension for a big potential reward.....In an era of 7+ million a win spending if Pearce is worth 1.4 WAR going forward his contract is decent and I would be SHOCKED if he isn't worth at least 6.5 wins in the next 3 years (more likely 8ish wins imo).....And an 8 win player over 3 years has a market value of 56 million....

Somewhere this Org needs to take some risk....Everything we know about Pearce the player/person tells us he is a very good risk/reward going forward.

I'm all for giving Pearce a chance to repeat his 2014. At low cost and no commitment beyond 2015.

[weams]

I'm all for giving Pearce a chance to repeat his 2014. At low cost and no commitment beyond 2015.

That's all I am saying. Give him a chance.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I am shocked there aren't more posters all over giving him a small extension for a big potential reward.....

Pretty sure there are quite a few people open to the idea/thought, but would rather not pay money that is not needed imo. My guess is Pearce would be thrilled to get 12 mil over 3 years, especially since he has made so little money over his career.

[Number5]

That's all I am saying. Give him a chance.

I see what you did there.

[Scrat1]

Not really. Much rather have Rasmus for outfield or Morse for DH and keep the pick and extra money.

[Tx Oriole]

I'd keep our pick and the money...

DD has big decisions coming up next year. To be honest, if we are going 3 on Melky, why didn't we keep Nelson?

Didnt Cruz turn down an offer from the O's? I am not sure of this though.