FWIW, Fangraphs Projects O's in Last Place in 2015

[wildcard]

You don't think the new pitching and bullpen coaches had anything to do with the changes last year?

Personally I do think Wallace and Chiti made a big difference. The question is can the O's pitchers maintained last year's improvements. I hope so but a 3 year average method does not support it.

Will Norris pitch to a 3.65 ERA again or does he go back to the mean of 4.16?

Is Britton really a 1.65 ERA pitcher or goes he go back to his 3.57 ERA average?

Hunter has a 4.10 ERA, 3 year average.

There are good reasons to argue that the levels reached last year can happen again but if I am just a baseball fan and not not bias to the O's do I believe the averages or the better performance will happen in 2015? Take your pick.

[ledzepp8]

Similarly, there are a million reasons why a coin might not flip perfectly. You might see that a side is dented for the tails side is a bit worn, but if I asked you to predict the next ten flips, you would still be smart to guess 5 and 5. And that's the point here. No one is saying all the things Fip or any other projection system don't factor in don't matter. All they are saying is that as of now, there is no good way to make better projections with them/

They aren't making an effort to include team defense in the projection. That's not the same as there being no good ways to make said projection better. They don't care because they think they're right no matter what continued results there actually are.

[ledzepp8]

While the method I use to project next year stats is about as far away from what Fangraphs does as anyone could imagine, the three year average method shows a regression by the O's pitching staff as well. Several of the O's pitchers took big steps forward last year and a three year method smoothes those results.

The O's pitching staff in 2014 had a 3.43 ERA. It was 3rd in the league.

The three year average I worked out has O's with a 3.67 ERA. That would have been 7th last year.

So though I don't agree with the Fangraphs numbers the concept of a regression is supported.

Is this really an accurate prediction when offense has gone down the last few years and will presumably be down again this season?

[waroriole]

You don't think the new pitching and bullpen coaches had anything to do with the changes last year?

Or the league wide decline in offense. If you're looking at a 3 year average, you should probably adjust for that.

[waroriole]

Personally I do think Wallace and Chiti made a big difference. The question is can the O's pitchers maintained last year's improvements. I hope so but a 3 year average method does not support it.

Will Norris pitch to a 3.65 ERA again or does he go back to the mean of 4.16?

Is Britton really a 1.65 ERA pitcher or goes he go back to his 3.57 ERA average?

Hunter has a 4.10 ERA, 3 year average.

There are good reasons to argue that the levels reached last year can happen again but if I am just a baseball fan and not not bias to the O's do I believe the averages or the better performance will happen in 2015? Take your pick.

How can you look at a 3 year average for Britton when last year was his first in the bullpen?

[wildcard]

Is this really an accurate prediction when offense has gone down the last few years and will presumably be down again this season?

Do you know of an accurate prediction system? 3 year average is a kind of a middle of road approach to predicting. Its as accurate as anything else I've seen. Which is to say none of them are one the money all the time. The only way to know is play the games.

[wildcard]

How can you look at a 3 year average for Britton when last year was his first in the bullpen?

I agree. How do you know what Britton will do next year? 1.65 ERA is really low even for a closer. We see relievers go for 2.00 to 4.20 from year to year. Britton could do that. Its pretty unpredictable as the rest of the league adjusts to him in his new role next year.

I am rooting for Britton but look at his history, health is problem as important as anything. Those sinkers can take a toll.

[Can_of_corn]

I agree. How do you know what Britton will do next year? 1.65 ERA is really low even for a closer. We see relievers go for 2.00 to 4.20 from year to year. Britton could do that. Its pretty unpredictable as the rest of the league adjusts to him in his new role next year.

I am rooting for Britton but look at his history, health is problem as important as anything. Those sinkers can take a toll.

An ERA of 1.65 or 3.00 could result in identical counting stats (W, L, SV, BS)

[waroriole]

An ERA of 1.65 or 3.00 could result in identical counting stats (W, L, SV, BS)

I'm rooting for a high WPA.

[wildcard]

An ERA of 1.65 or 3.00 could result in identical counting stats (W, L, SV, BS)

Sure it could, but might not. More runs scored, more chances to blow saves and lose games.

[atomic]

How can you look at a 3 year average for Britton when last year was his first in the bullpen?

And Hunter was actually better in 2013 than 2014. He was a starter in 2012 so i dont know how his three year average is pertinent.

[Frobby]

Projecting baseball is fun winter entertainment. There's nothing else to do, so it's a distraction. Let's not kid ourselves, though. Did we know last winter that Wieters would miss five months, that Machado would miss three months, that Davis would have a terrible year and miss three weeks due to an suspension, that Steave Pearce would put up a 6 WAR season, that Cruz would hit 40 homers, that Britton would be a shutdown closer? I could go on and on. It's a crazy game.

[ledzepp8]

Do you know of an accurate prediction system? 3 year average is a kind of a middle of road approach to predicting. Its as accurate as anything else I've seen. Which is to say none of them are one the money all the time. The only way to know is play the games.

My point is that you're using a three year average of Os ERAs to predict that the team ERA for this year will regress, without taking into account that the run scoring environment in baseball has continually declined over the past few seasons. Their ERA from a couple of seasons ago when league average offense was better should have no bearing on what their potential ERA is for this season when league average offense is worse. My point isn't to criticize how accurate your prediction ultimately is, just that it seems to be a strange way to go about predicting. There doesn't seem to be any context, as others have pointed out with particular players like Tommy Hunter, Zach Britton, etc.

[Crazysilver03]

And Hunter was actually better in 2013 than 2014. He was a starter in 2012 so i dont know how his three year average is pertinent.

And you wonder why I pick on your arguments. In this case, you care about the difference between when Hunter was a starter vs a reliever. Yet with Miller you were constantly citing his career numbers (including as a starter). Have some consistency man.

[Frobby]

Fangraphs conducted a fan poll regarding the projections they made. 67% of those voting (1785 voters) thought the Orioles' projection was too low, with 38% voting that the O's were underestimated by more than three wins.

The Orioles had the highest average vote in the American League. At the time they were projected for 79 wins. A good 38% of voters thought that was low by more than three games, and another 29% thought it was low by up to three games. That 38% figure -- it's the highest in the league, by ten percentage points. Just 9% of voters thought the Orioles' projection was favorable. The Orioles are trying to be active, looking to fill out the roster, but even with the roster unfilled, most voters think the O's are better than Steamer gives them credit for. Given what the Orioles have done lately, this result isn't a surprise.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/your-opinions-of-the-team-projections-american-league/