FWIW, Fangraphs Projects O's in Last Place in 2015

[ledzepp8]

LOL. So what else is new? IIRC they had us last last year, as well. Pretty much every year, in fact. Last year, I believe they pretty much had their projected standings end up being the inverse of the actual AL East results. Anyone have that handy? It is hard to be that consistently poor in projecting. I will begin to worry if the ever have us projected to do well. :laughlol:

I don't really take issue with their projections being wrong. It's the arrogance and bending over backwards (that we witnessed last year) to defend their projections as accurate even though the Orioles outperform them.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't really take issue with their projections being wrong. It's the arrogance and bending over backwards (that we witnessed last year) to defend their projections as accurate even though the Orioles outperform them.

They did poke fun at themselves a bit with the piece on Pearce today.

[Number5]

Basing team pitching projections solely on FIP assumes that every position player on every team fields his position identically to every other player at that position in the majors. Since that is an obviously ridiculous assumption, the projection is worthless.

[OriolesHash1]

So cruz might have been a loss...

but Markakis is replaceable and we didn't have miller all year.

Now you add in Wieters and Machado

[ledzepp8]

This is just wrong. Everything about it is wrong. I am having trouble expressing how wrong it is. Really, really, wrong.

Fangraphs and the other advanced stats projections systems are a lot more accurate than predicting every team at .500. They are also more accurate than any other prediction system. They are quite broad, and no one should be upset if it has your team improving or regressing. They are not making some value judgement. They are saying that by the numbers we can collect, history suggests that you will finish ____.

What numbers are they collecting that says that a team that has averaged 91 wins for the past three seasons and with more or less the same roster as last year, is going to regress from 96 wins to 79 wins? It's silly.

[Can_of_corn]

Basing team pitching projections solely on FIP assumes that every position player on every team fields his position identically to every other player at that position in the majors. Since that is an obviously ridiculous assumption, the projection is worthless.

There are shades of grey between accurate and worthless.

I certainly would not go to Vegas with their projections as my guide but they are not worthless. Bothering to have them up in December on the other hand, does very little good.

[Number5]

There are shades of grey between accurate and worthless.

I certainly would not go to Vegas with their projections as my guide but they are not worthless. Bothering to have them up in December on the other hand, does very little good.

I am not saying FIP is worthless. I am saying team pitching projections based solely on FIP are worthless.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I tweeted at Dave a couple weeks ago when they first posted it.

They have the O's ERA increasing by I think it was .7 runs.

They seemingly refuse to adjust for defense. They are irrecoverably wedded to FIP.

Yeah, our plus defense accounted for 0.45 runs of ERA for our starters according to BIS/Bref's data last year. That's pretty huge. Like you said, I don't think its an agenda, it's just numbers.

[Can_of_corn]

I am not saying FIP is worthless. I am saying team pitching projections based solely on FIP are worthless.

I know and the projections are not useless. They are of very limited use in December but they will be worth slightly more by the time the season rolls around. They are not a wholly wasteful endeavor.

[weams]

This kind of crap is the reason that people (or at least O's fans) go on his site and give him a hard time. What could he possibly be basing his projections off of, in the middle of the GD offseason?

Which site. The USSMariner?

[ledzepp8]

Which site. The USSMariner?

The fangraphs site.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I know and the projections are not useless. They are of very limited use in December but they will be worth slightly more by the time the season rolls around. They are not a wholly wasteful endeavor.

FIP make some people hysterical.

[Can_of_corn]

The fangraphs site.

He knows what site you were talking about, he links to it often enough.

[Can_of_corn]

FIP make some people hysterical.

I can understand that. There are a number of "stats" thrown around that annoy me as well. As I am sure you are well aware.

[Number5]

I know and the projections are not useless. They are of very limited use in December but they will be worth slightly more by the time the season rolls around. They are not a wholly wasteful endeavor.

We disagree, obviously. IMO it is most assuredly a wholly wasteful endeavor. The projections are wrong on their face, since it really is a given that not every player defends their position identically to all other players at the position. Additionally, factors such as park dimensions and GB/FB rates in conjunction with team defensive makeup need to be looked at for any reasonable projection of actual team pitching results. Fangraph's lazy pitching projections based solely on FIP gives us nothing meaningful.