FWIW, Fangraphs Projects O's in Last Place in 2015

[waroriole]

FIP make some people hysterical.

Raises hand.

[Malike]

Are you paying attention at all?

The issue is how they are rating the O's pitching. They are projecting a pretty severe regression. Just like they have for the previous three seasons.

You want me to link to the articles they posted last summer trying to explain why they were so off in their projections?

Are the articles 140 characters or less?

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[Guest]

Are the articles 140 characters or less?

Sent from my LG-D851 using Tapatalk

This never gets old. You can do better then this.

[Malike]

This never gets old. You can do better then this.

Pot meet kettle.

[Guest]

Pot meet kettle.

[Can_of_corn]

This never gets old. You can do better then this.

He does his best work in the game threads.

[weams]

They did poke fun at themselves a bit with the piece on Pearce today.

I like the site. But if you don't think Dave Cameron is a much a Mariners fan as I am an Orioles one, you aren't paying attention.

[AlbionHero]

I like the site. But if you don't think Dave Cameron is a much a Mariners fan as I am an Orioles one, you aren't paying attention.

He got overly emotional in the chats about how stupid the Mariners were for signing Cruz... that kinda deal is pretty much everything a sabermetric nerd would hate. It was pretty funny.

[SteveA]

This is just wrong. Everything about it is wrong. I am having trouble expressing how wrong it is. Really, really, wrong.

Fangraphs and the other advanced stats projections systems are a lot more accurate than predicting every team at .500. They are also more accurate than any other prediction system. They are quite broad, and no one should be upset if it has your team improving or regressing. They are not making some value judgement. They are saying that by the numbers we can collect, history suggests that you will finish ____.

Is there some after the fact data to back that up? Comparing their projections in previous years vs what actually happened, agaisnt others projections?

[Can_of_corn]

I like the site. But if you don't think Dave Cameron is a much a Mariners fan as I am an Orioles one, you aren't paying attention.

So the Orioles are his Nationals?

[awannabegeek]

This kind of crap is the reason that people (or at least O's fans) go on his site and give him a hard time. What could he possibly be basing his projections off of, in the middle of the GD offseason?

So I wasn't sure who I was going to respond to, but I just chose you.

It is a projection system, there's no agenda, it's not perfect, and it's based off the projected depth charts as of today (which doesn't make the projection laughable, but the reaction to it definitely so).

This is a horrible mix of two things, one, Baltimore's undying need for "respect" and, two, some misunderstanding...

[Frobby]

So I wasn't sure who I was going to respond to, but I just chose you.

It is a projection system, there's no agenda, it's not perfect, and it's based off the projected depth charts as of today (which doesn't make the project laughable, but the reaction to it definitely so).

This is a horrible mix of two things, one, Baltimore's undying need for "respect" and, two, some misunderstanding...

I agree it is not intentionally biased. However, there is no sanity check.

Tillman: 2.93, 3.73, 3.34.....4.35?

Gonzo: 3.25, 3.78, 3.23......4.56?

Those are particularly egregious to me, and suggest that this system blindly follows peripherals against all contrary evidence.

[AlbionHero]

I agree it is not intentionally biased. However, there is no sanity check.

Tillman: 2.93, 3.73, 3.34.....4.35?

Gonzo: 3.25, 3.78, 3.23......4.56?

Those are particularly egregious to me, and suggest that this system blindly follows peripherals against all contrary evidence.

Tillman has a 4.30 FIP last 3 years, and Gonzo has a 4.6 FIP last 3 years. Thats where they are getting their numbers from, they just based the ERA on the FIP since their metrics put more weight into FIP than ERA.

[MurphDogg]

Tillman has a 4.30 FIP last 3 years, and Gonzo has a 4.6 FIP last 3 years. Thats where they are getting their numbers from, they just based the ERA on the FIP since their metrics put more weight into FIP than ERA.

The point is, if someone's ERA is consistently outperforming his FIP whether it is based on his defense or some outside force that is not measured by FIP, at some point it should appear in the projections.

[Number5]

Tillman has a 4.30 FIP last 3 years, and Gonzo has a 4.6 FIP last 3 years. Thats where they are getting their numbers from, they just based the ERA on the FIP since their metrics put more weight into FIP than ERA.

Exactly! That is the whole point. The projections intentionally are based on incomplete information, totally overlooking defense, and are quite obviously worthless from the get-go. They are projecting FIP, yet claim that it is a projection of ERA. Absurd on its face.