Health and an unpredictable offense will tell the story for the O's in 2015

[Frobby]

JJ's 9 home runs were actually in his last 77 games, not 90 games.

The team's last 90 games, of which JJ only played 77. 9 homers in that span is one every 8.55 games, a 19-homer pace if JJ played all 162 games. But I don't expect him to play all 162 games, and in fact, I'd be very pleased if he played in 150.

Overall, while I think it's certainly possible that JJ will hit 20+ homers in 2015, the odds are against it. ZiPS has him down for 15, Steamer says 17.

[MurphDogg]

The team's last 90 games, of which JJ only played 77. 9 homers in that span is one every 8.55 games, a 19-homer pace if JJ played all 162 games. But I don't expect him to play all 162 games, and in fact, I'd be very pleased if he played in 150.

Overall, while I think it's certainly possible that JJ will hit 20+ homers in 2015, the odds are against it. ZiPS has him down for 15, Steamer says 17.

Yes, but you went on to say that 9 home runs in 90 games is a 16 homer pace over 162 and he won't play 162. Which is obviously irrelevant, because 16 homers was his pace over a full season of 139 games including rest (77/90*162), not 162 games.

[Frobby]

Yes, but you went on to say that 9 home runs in 90 games is a 16 homer pace over 162 and he won't play 162. Which is obviously irrelevant, because 16 homers was his pace over a full season of 139 games including rest (77/90*162), not 162 games.

You are correct about that. And I think we are agreed that, at the pace he hit homers beginning in the team's 73rd game, he wouldn't be expected to hit 20.