Fangraphs: Cliff Lee Free for 2015?

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-i-might-rather-trade-for-cliff-lee/

[Can_of_corn]

I think that if healthy he would be a solid pickup for someone, but there is no way that team will be the Orioles.

[weams]

I think that if healthy he would be a solid pickup for someone, but there is no way that team will be the Orioles.

Even if the Orioles traded a starter?

[weams]

We'd still have 5. Then there is the small detail of the $25,000,0000 salary this year.

The Premise is that the Phillies would pick all of that up to get back a few choice prospects.

[weams]

I think that's a flawed premise.

It was what the article was suggesting.

Let’s say the Phillies went along with this plan, and agreed that they would pay 100% of Lee’s 2015 salary, leaving the acquiring team only on the hook for either the $12.5 million buyout or the $27.5 million salary in 2016 if his option vests — which it does with 200 innings pitched this year, as long as he doesn’t end the season on the DL — or they picked it up as part of the trade. At that point, the risk to the acquiring team is quite low, as they will pay just the $12.5 million buyout if Lee doesn’t live up to expectations, and it would be applied to next year’s budget anyway.

And if Lee does pitch well, returning to prior ace-like form, the $15 million marginal cost difference to have him in 2016 might actually be something of a bargain anyway.

[Can_of_corn]

We'd still have 5. Then there is the small detail of the $25,000,0000 salary this year.

The article he is referencing states that any trade for Lee would have money going with him to the acquiring team. Of course the case could be made that even if it was 10 million then the O's wouldn't have room for him.

You are certainly right about having five starters already.

[weams]

The article he is referencing states that any trade for Lee would have money going with him to the acquiring team. Of course the case could be made that even if it was 10 million then the O's wouldn't have room for him.

You are certainly right about having five starters already.

In order for the option to kick in 200 innings would need to be accomplished.

[Number5]

Anything is possible but I see the Phillies holding onto Lee until the deadline, by which time, they hope he proves himself both healthy and effective. Then they can probably trade him without picking up salary and getting a prospect in return.

Highly unlikely.

[Beef Supreme]

In order for the option to kick in 200 innings would need to be accomplished.

And for the vesting option to kick in, he couldn't end the year with a shoulder or elbow injury placing him on the DL. But what was the rest of it? That the vesting option is negated for a player acquired via trade??

''...leaving the acquiring team only on the hook for either the $12.5 million buyout or the $27.5 million salary in 2016 if his option vests ? which it does with 200 innings pitched this year, as long as he doesn?t end the season on the DL ? or they picked it up as part of the trade.''

Is that true for all vesting options or a wrinkle in Lee's contract?

[weams]

And for the vesting option to kick in, he couldn't end the year with a shoulder or elbow injury placing him on the DL. But what was the rest of it? That the vesting option is negated for a player acquired via trade??

''...leaving the acquiring team only on the hook for either the $12.5 million buyout or the $27.5 million salary in 2016 if his option vests ? which it does with 200 innings pitched this year, as long as he doesn?t end the season on the DL ? or they picked it up as part of the trade.''

Is that true for all vesting options or a wrinkle in Lee's contract?

I think that it was a postulate that the Phillies might mitigate risk by assuming it in order for Joe Jordan to select his jewels.

[Number5]

If Cliff Lee pitches like Cliff Lee prior to last year, you think it's unlikely?

Unlikely is actually too mild a term. I consider it to be virtually impossible. No team would pay half of this year's salary to Lee, plus be on the hook for either the $12.5 million buyout or the $27.5 million vesting option, in addition to giving up a good prospect for half a season of Cliff Lee. No team. If a team were to suffer temporary insanity and pull the trigger on such a deal, they would be in the position of seeing his option vest and owe him $27.5 million for 2016 if they actually were to use him enough to make what they pay him this year worthwhile or -best case scenario they would have to pay him in excess of $25 million for less than half a season if they don't pitch him enough for the option to vest (half of this year's salary plus the $12.5 million buy out for 2016).

[Number5]

Between 2011-2013, Cliff Lee put up 21 WAR. I would say if he's pitching like that this year, teams's would be willing to pick up 10M or less (July 31 through end of season), and be willing to pick up the 27.5M for ONE year. No, it won't be a team like the O's. It could definitely be a big money team like the Yankees, Dodgers, or Red Sox.

We obviously completely disagree.