HHP: MASN/Nats/Orioles case (Inside the Courtroom)

[hoosiers]

Some folks think these types of TV deals are a bubble about to burst.

We are in the first year of an 8 year deal. When will that bubble burst exactly?

[Can_of_corn]

Spending on operations has risen in line with attendance increases and other sources of revenue increases.

EVERYWHERE one reads, it is pointed out that MASN enables Os ownership to contribute less in local TV rights fees because the $ handed to the teams is below market value.

Even if that is true.

Taking money out of MASN and giving less of it to the Orioles will result in less spending.

[Can_of_corn]

We are in the first year of an 8 year deal. When will that bubble burst exactly?

If folks knew exactly when the bubble would burst then it would burst before then, as the smart money got out.

I posted an article about it at some point during the season. Probably in the MLB section.

[weams]

And you base this on specific knowledge from an insider or gut feel?

The Os couldn't do better than San Diego?

Nothing I post has anything to do with being an insider. If I were guessing? San Diego is a much better market than Baltimore without the area south of it. Much better.

[weams]

We are in the first year of an 8 year deal. When will that bubble burst exactly?

What 8 year deal? What one? The National deal? Has nothing to do with us.

[weams]

If folks knew exactly when the bubble would burst then it would burst before then, as the smart money got out.

I posted an article about it at some point during the season. Probably in the MLB section.

Who knows. Maybe it will go up and up and up and up. The deal the Orioles struck with MLB to sell off part of their TV market is not subject to the whims of a jealous owner to the south. It is not something that you wait out like they think it should be. It is forever. That is why they are trying to blow it up. How is that so hard to understand?

[DrungoHazewood]

Some folks think these types of TV deals are a bubble about to burst.

The Orioles got one or two years of top-shelf payroll before the stadium boom caught up and eliminated the OPACY sellout advantage. They will likely never take advantage of the cable TV bubble before it implodes.

[DrungoHazewood]

Who knows. Maybe it will go up and up and up and up.

Eventually people will get angry enough at having to pay $30, $40, $50 or more a month for a bunch of channels that they don't want that they'll convince their legislators to do something about it. I think it's a matter of when, not if. The longer the Orioles goof around with a TV network that pays them far below even other small- or mid-market teams, the more likely it is they never get a big payday.

[DrungoHazewood]

Nothing I post has anything to do with being an insider. If I were guessing? San Diego is a much better market than Baltimore without the area south of it. Much better.

By what measure? By the Neilsen market ratings Baltimore and San Diego have almost exactly the same number of TV households.

[Hallas]

Eventually people will get angry enough at having to pay $30, $40, $50 or more a month for a bunch of channels that they don't want that they'll convince their legislators to do something about it. I think it's a matter of when, not if. The longer the Orioles goof around with a TV network that pays them far below even other small- or mid-market teams, the more likely it is they never get a big payday.

What kind of big payday do you expect? We can estimate that the O's, as it is currently, make 40M from the rights fees and and about 20-30 million in MASN profit. The Dodgers got about 250M a year for a market that is about 6 times the size. On a per-person basis, the O's are doing better than the Dodgers. The Nationals are feeling the pinch, since their MSA is double the size of ours, and they receive maybe 5-6 million in MASN profit and the same amount in rights fees. But realistically the Orioles can't really extract much more out of their TV rights.

[weams]

By what measure? By the Neilsen market ratings Baltimore and San Diego have almost exactly the same number of TV households.

Median. Income.

[weams]

What kind of big payday do you expect? We can estimate that the O's, as it is currently, make 40M from the rights fees and and about 20-30 million in MASN profit. The Dodgers got about 250M a year for a market that is about 6 times the size. On a per-person basis, the O's are doing better than the Dodgers. The Nationals are feeling the pinch, since their MSA is double the size of ours, and they receive maybe 5-6 million in MASN profit and the same amount in rights fees. But realistically the Orioles can't really extract much more out of their TV rights.

Well of course this makes sense. But it does not cater to the concept that a better run MASN could pay an equitable amount to each team. That we could then spend on Josh Hamilton. And his new beard.

[hoosiers]

What kind of big payday do you expect? We can estimate that the O's, as it is currently, make 40M from the rights fees and and about 20-30 million in MASN profit. The Dodgers got about 250M a year for a market that is about 6 times the size. On a per-person basis, the O's are doing better than the Dodgers. The Nationals are feeling the pinch, since their MSA is double the size of ours, and they receive maybe 5-6 million in MASN profit and the same amount in rights fees. But realistically the Orioles can't really extract much more out of their TV rights.

MASN makes between $40M and $50M for its owners.

The latest CBA calls for teams in the larger 15 markets to forfeit their local TV rights fees share and for the smaller teams to see their share about double in 2016. That will be another $15M-$20M or so for Bmore.

All of this serves to close the gap with the Dodgers though the difference will remain substantial. At least at LAD's fees increase annually, so will the sharing.

I think there are probably many ways for MASN/Os ownership to settle with the Nats over MASN and get the Nats for fair market value or close to it.

I just think it is impossible to conclude that PA's large majority ownership in the local TV rights of two major league teams has resulted in a corresponding increase in team payroll. That $ appears to be going straight into the pockets of MASN's owners.

[Can_of_corn]

MASN makes between $40M and $50M for its owners.

The latest CBA calls for teams in the larger 15 markets to forfeit their local TV rights fees share and for the smaller teams to see their share about double in 2016. That will be another $15M-$20M or so for Bmore.

All of this serves to close the gap with the Dodgers though the difference will remain substantial. At least at LAD's fees increase annually, so will the sharing.

I think there are probably many ways for MASN/Os ownership to settle with the Nats over MASN and get the Nats for fair market value or close to it.

I just think it is impossible to conclude that PA's large majority ownership in the local TV rights of two major league teams has resulted in a corresponding increase in team payroll. That $ appears to be going straight into the pockets of MASN's owners.

Which, as I said before, is irrelevant even if accurate.

They are not going to simply shrug and stop making money if that faucet is closed. At least some of it will be recouped from the other asset...the Orioles.

[weams]

MASN makes between $40M and $50M for its owners.

The latest CBA calls for teams in the larger 15 markets to forfeit their local TV rights fees share and for the smaller teams to see their share about double in 2016. That will be another $15M-$20M or so for Bmore.

All of this serves to close the gap with the Dodgers though the difference will remain substantial. At least at LAD's fees increase annually, so will the sharing.

I think there are probably many ways for MASN/Os ownership to settle with the Nats over MASN and get the Nats for fair market value or close to it.

I just think it is impossible to conclude that PA's large majority ownership in the local TV rights of two major league teams has resulted in a corresponding increase in team payroll. That $ appears to be going straight into the pockets of MASN's owners.

I don't think your math is anywhere close to accurate. But I will not argue. You will never convince me that the Nationals deal is not equitable for them. It's their deal. They are trying to extort a different one. One of the main reasons they lost yesterday.