This is A Mess (Mega RANT Thread)

[Can_of_corn]

You can't argue with the sabermetric/analytic guys b/c they think that they are always right. If baseball was as simple as using formulas and equations there would be no point in watching. Statistics are a barometer, but a lot of experts here use statistics as the basis of their argument. Case and point - recently the O's hit a couple of meaningless home runs in the 9th inning of a 9-1 game. The stat sheet, however, doesn't reflect that. Another example is how laughable it is when people use WAR to defend Travis Snider. Anyone who watches the guy play can recognize that he has a very limited upside and doesn't being a lot to the table. As a team the O's are undisciplined and strike out a lot but the experts here will still argue to the death that strikeouts aren't a big deal. Well, the team is last in baseball at scoring with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs for a reason. The best part is, these guys try to belittle and insult those who have opinions that are completely seduced by sabermetrics. It's kind of funny.

Actually the stats do reflect that.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Actually the stats do reflect that.

Yeah, I guess I missed all the staunch Travis Snider fans at this point, or that people versed in WAR can't understand that his stats are being inflated by the defensive metrics this year. Then again, it's easier to criticize something you don't understand than to actually try and learn something and engage in an actual debate.

[MemorialStadKid]

Threatened? No, you're challenged to address my facts. Explain the difference between the offseasons we had in 2012 and 2013 in terms of players acquired and what we saw in 2014 when he was SUPPOSEDLY too distracted to care.

During the 2014 offseason, we got EXTREMELY lucky that Cruz was coming off a PED year and few teams wanted to touch him. He had a bounce-back season last year and he made a huge difference for our team because pitchers HAD to pitch around him therefore giving our other hitters better pitches to see.

I was also critical of his lack of movement then.

I would say the BIGGER difference between 2013, 2014 and this past offseason was that we had considerable holes this year than ever before.

We lost Markakis (who was popular and a true Oriole by most standards) whose performance was sometimes shaky, but he was a core guy whose loss was immediately felt in the clubhouse.

We lost Cruz.

We traded a high-end prospect for a short term rental in Miller who we didn't try to keep.

The difference between those years and this last one? We had more talent. Overall.

Now, heading into 2015, there was a GLARING NEED for quality talent to replace what we lost. Even during his normal "wait-and-see" mode during the offseason, you had the feeling that DD was doing his job.

Please tell me how you can say that a man who was half-way out of the door onto a new assignment was 100% focused on his current assignment?

Do YOU feel he was critically engaged in his work to improve the Orioles when we end up with a bunch of retreads?

Hope that makes sense.

MSK

[TonySoprano]

During the 2014 offseason, we got EXTREMELY lucky that Cruz was coming off a PED year and few teams wanted to touch him. He had a bounce-back season last year and he made a huge difference for our team because pitchers HAD to pitch around him therefore giving our other hitters better pitches to see.

I was also critical of his lack of movement then.

I would say the BIGGER difference between 2013, 2014 and this past offseason was that we had considerable holes this year than ever before.

We lost Markakis (who was popular and a true Oriole by most standards) whose performance was sometimes shaky, but he was a core guy whose loss was immediately felt in the clubhouse.

We lost Cruz.

We traded a high-end prospect for a short term rental in Miller who we didn't try to keep.

The difference between those years and this last one? We had more talent. Overall.

Now, heading into 2015, there was a GLARING NEED for quality talent to replace what we lost. Even during his normal "wait-and-see" mode during the offseason, you had the feeling that DD was doing his job.

Please tell me how you can say that a man who was half-way out of the door onto a new assignment was 100% focused on his current assignment?

Do YOU feel he was critically engaged in his work to improve the Orioles when we end up with a bunch of retreads?

Hope that makes sense.

MSK

Nope, we made the playoffs in 2012, and yet, no big acquisitions, no Toronto distractions. Here's what Dan acquired after that season: Alexi Casilla, TJ McFarland (rule V), Nate McLouth, Jair Jurrgens among others. Anyone on that list make you sentimental? We had less holes that year? Really? My opinion, as opposed to "fact," is that Dan had budget restrictions and he did what he could with them.

The big difference between you and me is you feel Duquette deliberately mailed it in after failing to land the Toronto job. That's how I read "Oh snap! I can't go to Toronto and I let a couple of the best players on the Orioles walk! I know, I'll just grab some AAAA talent and hope I get lucky!" That also goes beyond being distracted. Is that correct?

[eddie83]

Yeah, I guess I missed all the staunch Travis Snider fans at this point, or that people versed in WAR can't understand that his stats are being inflated by the defensive metrics this year. Then again, it's easier to criticize something you don't understand than to actually try and learn something and engage in an actual debate.

Is it fair to say the metrics are flawed? I watch this team play everyday like we all do. Snider isn't a great defender and he doesn't play everyday.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Personally, I think giving Cruz that 4th year likely was within DD's authority. The fact that he didn't do it (and I wanted Cruz back badly), or maybe didn't make a worse/riskier deal, says to me he was engaged in his job and looking out for the Orioles long term interest.

[Can_of_corn]

Is it fair to say the metrics are flawed? I watch this team play everyday like we all do. Snider isn't a great defender and he doesn't play everyday.

It's fair to say you think the metrics are flawed. I think just declaring it is a disrespectful to a lot of people who have done a lot of work on them.

For you to dismiss their labor out of hand because it doesn't match your opinion of a single player doesn't seen appropriate.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Is it fair to say the metrics are flawed? I watch this team play everyday like we all do. Snider isn't a great defender and he doesn't play everyday.

I've made comets that his WAR is likely inflated. Short term defensive metrics are very unstable and his numbers are way above his norm. That said, I don't think Snider is a poor defender at all.

[eddie83]

It's fair to say you think the metrics are flawed. I think just declaring it is a disrespectful to a lot of people who have done a lot of work on them.

For you to dismiss their labor out of hand because it doesn't match your opinion of a single player doesn't seen appropriate.

I am not dismissing them. I am not trying to be disrespectful. I just don't understand how hard it is to compare a Snider and Markakis? One guy plays half the time and the other plays everyday. One guy gets pinch hit for and the other doesn't. One guy causes the team to keep another player and and one guy takes up only one spot. Many arguments on this board are based off of WAR. It isn't ok to disagree with what I am seeing?

[TonySoprano]

Personally, I think giving Cruz that 4th year likely was within DD's authority. The fact that he didn't do it (and I wanted Cruz back badly), or maybe didn't make a worse/riskier deal, says to me he was engaged in his job and looking out for the Orioles long term interest.

Agree with this. I wouldn't have gone 4 years nor do I think he would have been a season-changing difference this year. Ask Seattle.

[eddie83]

I've made comets that his WAR is likely inflated. Short term defensive metrics are very unstable and his numbers are way above his norm. That said, I don't think Snider is a poor defender at all.

I don't think he is either. I also don't think it is such a supreme defender over Markakis, that is all.

[weams]

Personally, I think giving Cruz that 4th year likely was within DD's authority. The fact that he didn't do it (and I wanted Cruz back badly), or maybe didn't make a worse/riskier deal, says to me he was engaged in his job and looking out for the Orioles long term interest.

I am relatively certain he could have signed Cruz. And chose to keep Davis instead.

[eddie83]

At the end of the day I started this thread. I admitted at time it was a lot of hindsight 20/20 vision. I never questioned DD's loyalty or effort. I didn't think KC had a good offseason but a lot of those moves worked. Was mess to strong a word? Mayer so. We have big holes in the OF and still do with a suspect minor league system. None of his moves kill us longterm but at the end of the day they haven't worked.

[Can_of_corn]

I am not dismissing them. I am not trying to be disrespectful. I just don't understand how hard it is to compare a Snider and Markakis? One guy plays half the time and the other plays everyday. One guy gets pinch hit for and the other doesn't. One guy causes the team to keep another player and and one guy takes up only one spot. Many arguments on this board are based off of WAR. It isn't ok to disagree with what I am seeing?

Of course it is OK. No one is claiming that defensive metrics are perfect. In fact most folks recommend you look at two years of data at a time.

I am excited to see what impact statcast has.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think he is either. I also don't think it is such a supreme defender over Markakis, that is all.

I will say that Markakis is the type of player that the "eye test" tends to overrate.