It has now been 21.2 innings since we scored against an opposing team's bullpen.

[Phantom]

The Church of Sabermetrics would suggest that this isn't a big deal lol

You mean the fact that there is no correlation between runs and pitches per plate appearance? That "suggestion"?

It's actually the opposite with men on base. The first pitch is by far the best one to swing at statistically.

[glenn__davis]

The Twins' bullpen had a 4.22 ERA going into the Orioles series, not good at all. It was surprising they were able to shut us down. It's not surprising that KC has shut us down. They have the best bullpen in the league.

And they had just come off a series in which the Yankees had knocked them all over the park. For them to shut us down like they did was embarrassing.

[InsideCoroner]

It is surprising to me that we are currently 0-9 against Minnesota and KC this year. Seriously, we can't win 1 single game against these teams? Just 1 game where we have more runs than they do by the time the 9th inning is over? KC has a great bullpen, but these guys do have ERAs and do give up runs sometimes....someone should let our offense know.

They have lost their last 8 games against KC, going back to May of last year.

[clapdiddy]

And they had just come off a series in which the Yankees had knocked them all over the park. For them to shut us down like they did was embarrassing.

Yup. Against KC's bullpen, I can understand. The Twins' bullpen is decent, but to not score in 18 innings against them? Sickening.

[o'sfansince1970]

I can't remember a team so futile at the plate. Earl would love this team. 3 run homer or bust. I know Buck doesn't like small ball but this team is completely unable to manufacture runs. So many innings where 0 runs are scored.

[JR Oriole]

They have lost their last 8 games against KC, going back to May of last year.

It is worse than I thought....we have lost 16 straight regular season and postseason games to the Royals and Twins combined (0-8 for each). That is absolutely pathetic.

[Frobby]

You mean the fact that there is no correlation between runs and pitches per plate appearance? That "suggestion"?

It's actually the opposite with men on base. The first pitch is by far the best one to swing at statistically.

You have to be careful with that analysis. If you just look at all the times when the ball is put in play on the first pitch, the stats look very good. But you also need to consider the times when the ball is not put in play, and the batter is now down 0-1 in the count. Of course, you can also be down in the count 0-1 by taking a strike. So, bottom line, don't swing at a ball on an 0-0 count, but swinging at a strike is OK. Duh.

[Phantom]

You have to be careful with that analysis. If you just look at all the times when the ball is put in play on the first pitch, the stats look very good. But you also need to consider the times when the ball is not put in play, and the batter is now down 0-1 in the count. Of course, you can also be down in the count 0-1 by taking a strike. So, bottom line, don't swing at a ball on an 0-0 count, but swinging at a strike is OK. Duh.

Sure. There's a lot I didn't get into, like the fact that the first pitch looking strike rate goes way up with men on base (thus swinging is often even more beneficial). The Cards recently went the other way with this trend and have been encouraging their pitchers to start off batters with breaking or offspead stuff with baserunners on because a first pitch fastball in the zone is so common.

I am not against a patient approach, just against a patient approach for the sake of patience. I think there is some idea that players like Adam Jones are failing mentally at the plate and could make a lot of gains with no losses by just taking more pitches. I find that notion laughable.

[TouchemAll]

Just thought that needed to be mentioned.

Also, 8 straight losses now to both the Twins and Royals.

Also, 6 straight games scoring 3 runs or less.

I'm a glass half full guy but this is painful to watch.

That's a tuff pill to swallow man it's as ugly as this 6 game slide. :slytf:

[schittenden]

The Church of Sabermetrics would suggest that this isn't a big deal lol

Thank you!!! This is a very good point (which of course is marginalized by the Church of Sabermetrics) and it's a shame that the Orioles' hitters don't take a similar approach. Pitchers don't need to throw strikes to get them out.

Interestingly, the team with the fewest pitches per plate appearance is the Royals. The Orioles are almost exactly league average. It's not that the Royals (65%) see a lot more strikes than the Orioles (64.7%) do either (in raw numbers, the Orioles have actually seen more strikes than the Royals have). The Royals don't seem to work the count better than we do, they just make contact much more consistently (80.6% vs 75.1%).

[schittenden]

The Church of Sabermetrics would suggest that this isn't a big deal lol

I can't remember a team so futile at the plate. Earl would love this team. 3 run homer or bust. I know Buck doesn't like small ball but this team is completely unable to manufacture runs. So many innings where 0 runs are scored.

I don't have time to run this analysis in its entirety, but looking at the dataset I used for giveback runs, the Orioles had 400 chances to giveback a run last year (i.e., an inning in which the team scored and which the opposing team had an at-bat to follow). This excludes some innings (walk-off innings, top 9 when trailing at the end of the inning), but is a fairly good proxy I think. This was the second highest in all of baseball, with only the Red Sox having more chances (416). They are on pace for 373 such innings this year. That would have ranked 10th in baseball last year. For what it's worth, the Giants and Royals had 341 and 358 such innings last year.

[eddie83]

Baseball-reference has the late and close stat. It means from the 7th inning on when the team is tied, down 1 or has tying run on deck.

AL Rankings BA OPS

2012 .227(11) .677(8)

2013 .252(5) .722(4)

2014 .262(1) .733(3)

2015 .214(14) .614(15)

The Orioles are the worst team in the AL in OPS in late and close. Their OBP this year is by far the worst in the AL. Last year their OBP was .325, this year it is .265, closes team is at .281.

[eddie83]

More on late and close. Cruz, Markakis and Pearce were the Orioles 3 best last year. This year Caleb is hitting .188 with OPS of .464, Schoop who was terrible in 2014 also is .188 with OPS of .548. Paredes is .156 and .391 and Flaherty is hitting .040, (1 for 25) with OPS of .346.

We have a team that seems incapable late in tight games to add runs unless in comes from homers which is hard to do vs top flight relief pitching. Schoop seems to expand the zone even more in these types of spots.

[Can_of_corn]

Remember this when folks start hollering about working the count and getting the starting pitcher out of the game.

A lot of times the TTTOP makes it better to face a starter late in the game then it is the pen.

[Frobby]

Baseball-reference has the late and close stat. It means from the 7th inning on when the team is tied, down 1 or has tying run on deck.

AL Rankings BA OPS

2012 .227(11) .677(8)

2013 .252(5) .722(4)

2014 .262(1) .733(3)

2015 .214(14) .614(15)

The Orioles are the worst team in the AL in OPS in late and close. Their OBP this year is by far the worst in the AL. Last year their OBP was .325, this year it is .265, closes team is at .281.

Wow, that's pretty terrible. It goes a long way towards explaining our abysmal record in one-run games.