Yeah Hernandez!!!!!!

[Frobby]

It is also true that the Orioles had a better W-L percentage with LH as their starting shortstop than Tejada, which has to annoy the heck out of these same folks who no doubt will attribute it to every other possible reason than LH.

The way you say it, it sounds like its your opinion that LH was the sole reason the O's had a good record in his starts. BTW, the O's went 10-6 in the games LH started last year.

To be sure, LH deserves some of the credit for how the team played when he started. Among other things, he hit .322 in the games he started. But do you think he'll hit .322 this year? I don't. I'd bet on .222 before I'd bet on .322.

The O's had a lot going right when LH was playing last July. Most particularly, the bullpen didn't blow a save in the entire month of July. Patterson hit .340 in July. Millar hit very well in July.

Again, I'm not saying any of this to denigrate how well LH played in that short stretch. I am saying its dangerous to form strong opinions about a player based on how he plays in a few games, or to assign one player too much credit when the team happens to play well in the games he started.

BTW, the O's went 7-5 when Brandon Fahey started last year.

[Old#5fan]

The way you say it, it sounds like its your opinion that LH was the sole reason the O's had a good record in his starts. BTW, the O's went 10-6 in the games LH started last year.

To be sure, LH deserves some of the credit for how the team played when he started. Among other things, he hit .322 in the games he started. But do you think he'll hit .322 this year? I don't. I'd bet on .222 before I'd bet on .322.

The O's had a lot going right when LH was playing last July. Most particularly, the bullpen didn't blow a save in the entire month of July. Patterson hit .340 in July. Millar hit very well in July.

Again, I'm not saying any of this to denigrate how well LH played in that short stretch. I am saying its dangerous to form strong opinions about a player based on how he plays in a few games, or to assign one player too much credit when the team happens to play well in the games he started.

BTW, the O's went 7-5 when Brandon Fahey started last year.

Your points are well made and well taken. Of course I cannot give all the credit to the 10-6 record while LH was the starting SS last year to his presence in the lineup, same with Fahey and the 7-5 record both of which are better percentage-wise when Tejada was the starting SS. However, I think LH adds value to the team when he is in the lineup as the starting SS and I will leave it at that. Let the W-L record speak for itself.

I will add that a few years back when the Orioles had that historic collapse under Hargrove where they had reached 500 in August only to go 4-32 the rest of the way that it coincided with Gary Matthews Jr. being injured and out of the lineup. So one key player being absent or presence can definitely have an impact on a team negatively or positively. How much better the team played when LH was the SS is speculative as to whether they tried harder as a team knowing that Tejada was out and so his offense was missing or whether LH's defense gave them a spark nobody will really know.

[NewMarketSean]

I'm not going to get wrapped up in this LH stuff. But I will say this... let the guy play UNTIL a better option comes along or he proves that he deserves to stay.

And that should be the case with any player. It just so happens that LH is probably the first guy to get replaced because there are so many players out there that are going to be better overall. You could replace a guy like Markakis but it's going to be a lot harder to do because there are much less players to replace Markakis.

[El Gordo]

I'm not going to get wrapped up in this LH stuff. But I will say this... let the guy play UNTIL a better option comes along or he proves that he deserves to stay.

And that should be the case with any player. It just so happens that LH is probably the first guy to get replaced because there are so many players out there that are going to be better overall. You could replace a guy like Markakis but it's going to be a lot harder to do because there are much less players to replace Markakis.

If this were truly the case then LH wouldn't be on the team now. There are plenty of SS/UT guys out there who will hit a little better than LH, maybe as much as 2 W's, better if that's what you mean?

[Frobby]

How much better the team played when LH was the SS is speculative as to whether they tried harder as a team knowing that Tejada was out and so his offense was missing or whether LH's defense gave them a spark nobody will really know.

Tejada's injury also coincided almost exactly with when Trembley became the manager, so there may have been a boost there, too.

[RShack]

I know you are not a stats guy, at least not as big a stats guy as some people, but lets face it that stats are the only way we track the performance of players. Outside of defensive stats, his offensive stats have been terrible. So how do we establish a performance based incentive of being promoted when Luis Hernandez is in the MLB? Luis basically says to everyone in the organization that performance doesn't matter.

And the only problem I have with "the truth" part is... define the truth. OPS is a clearly defined measurable thing. "The truth" is your opinion... anyway you can spin it.

I'm not spinning anything. Look, it's really simple: you gotta factor in both runs created and runs prevented (and we know that a run-prevented is worth more than a run-created). We can look at OPS everyday and see half of that equation. But we can't see the other half. If we could see +/- Plays updated once a day (or once a week, or whatever), then we could. I bet all the MLB teams can, but we can't. So, people are shooting in the dark based on half of the truth. AFAIK, we don't even know what his +/- Plays were for last year, but his range data was off the charts. Really.

In the absence of this kinda information, try watching to see where he is. For example, a couple games ago, Melvin made a great diving stop to his left. If you ran back the TIVO of it, you could see LH in the background: he was in position to maybe make his own stop had Melvin not got it. For another example, I've seen three bloop singles to CF and, by the time they fell in, LH was way out in CF, almost to where Blair used to play. You gotta consider this stuff too. Just OPS doesn't tell you everything you need to know, it only tells you half of what you need to know.

ps: O's history trivia: Right before LH got the game-winning hit, the announcers were making a big deal about how shallow Ichiro was playing. If you've still got it TIVO'd, go look at where he was. That's more-or-less where Paul Blair played most of the time.

[Sports Guy]

This idea that we had a better record with LH than Tejada is so stupid.

First of all, it was a small sample size.

Secondly, if everything else was equal, there is absolutely no doubt that this team loses more over the course of 162 games with LH as the SS compared to Tejada.

[BaltimoreTerp]

It is also true that the Orioles had a better W-L percentage with LH as their starting shortstop than Tejada, which has to annoy the heck out of these same folks who no doubt will attribute it to every other possible reason than LH. Its that simple. Your last sentence says it all unfortunately.

Luis Hernandez started 14 games at shortstop last year. That includes eight or so during Tejada's injury, and four others spread out the rest of the way. The Orioles were 10-4.

If you include the two games he started at second base, the Orioles were 10-6.

Total, he appeared in 30 games last season. The Orioles were 15-15 in those 30 games.

In those wins, among other things, were great performances by Bedard and Guthrie, possibly Cabrera's best outing of the year, and several games where he was already out of the game by the time we won, or came in as a defensive replacement after the game was won.

Check it out yourself: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=hernalu01&t=b&year=2007

[The Wedge]

This idea that we had a better record with LH than Tejada is so stupid.

First of all, it was a small sample size.

Secondly, if everything else was equal, there is absolutely no doubt that this team loses more over the course of 162 games with LH as the SS compared to Tejada.

Bolding the part of your post that will probably be most easily ignored to prove points.

[Fan4Life]

This idea that we had a better record with LH than Tejada is so stupid.

First of all, it was a small sample size.

Secondly, if everything else was equal, there is absolutely no doubt that this team loses more over the course of 162 games with LH as the SS compared to Tejada.

I'm not sure anyone is saying this, and if they are, I can't believe you're spending time refuting it... you have better things to do..

[Frobby]

This idea that we had a better record with LH than Tejada is so stupid.

First of all, it was a small sample size.

Secondly, if everything else was equal, there is absolutely no doubt that this team loses more over the course of 162 games with LH as the SS compared to Tejada.

Small sample size is the key point here. Fact is, the shortstops who replaced Tejada hit MUCH better while he was out than one might have expected over the longer haul. Thus, the June/July 2007 sample didn't really reflect an offense vs. defense tradeoff, because the O's got pretty good offense form that position while he was out. They also got better defense than they could expect over the longer haul -- i.e., not a single error by a shortstop during his absence. LH made a couple of errors at SS in September.

[Old#5fan]

This idea that we had a better record with LH than Tejada is so stupid.

First of all, it was a small sample size.

Secondly, if everything else was equal, there is absolutely no doubt that this team loses more over the course of 162 games with LH as the SS compared to Tejada.

Pure speculation on your part with no way of knowing. I can easily declare the opposite which in fact I find more likely to be the case as the team looked better and played better with LH in the lineup than Tejada. When Tejada returned last season they reverted to playing lousy baseball.

Since the exact roster is not the same this year we only have a limited sample to go on from last year. However, as some other poster wrote, Tejada's injury also coincided with Trembley taking over so the managerial change also probably had an impact.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I'm not spinning anything. Look, it's really simple: you gotta factor in both runs created and runs prevented (and we know that a run-prevented is worth more than a run-created).

This has been the argument the entire offseason: whether the runs prevented by Hernandez's defense overcome the (negative) runs created by his bat.

I think we know where we all stand on that point

[RShack]

Bolding the part of your post that will probably be most easily ignored to prove points.

I'm not sure what this sentence means.

[Sports Guy]

Pure speculation on your part with no way of knowing. I can easily declare the opposite which in fact I find more likely to be the case as the team looks better and plays better with LH in the lineup than Tejada. Since the exact roster is not the same this year we only have a limited sample to go on from last year. However, as some other poster wrote, Tejada's injury also coincided with Trembley taking over so the managerial change also probably had an impact.

Actually it is a hypothesis based on stats and common sense.

Tejada is clearly the better player and clearly gives the team more wins than LH.

You can choose to ignore that if you want..That is your perogative but you are completely wrong and look very foolish saying otherwise.