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Based on what you've seen...


Bradysburns

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Any team can win 4 games in a row. Loving it, but perspective. If we had last 4, people would be freaking out.

The starting pitching is still a huge concern, nothing changed there.

Injuries can occur.

That doesn't mean we can't love it right now, but important to keep perspective.

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Still too early. Nice to see the team start hot but our starting pitching shouldn't be this good. Tillman might bounce back but Ubaldo is notoriously inconsistent and the rest of the staff is unproven.

Great start to the season. A torrid April could really propel this team.

Well, it's definitely a SSS in terms of our starting pitching. But Tillman, Gallardo and Ubaldo have all been dominant in the past. No reason to think we won't see stretches where they're all synched up. They're not "old." I would also say you are right about our inconsistent starting pitching, but I would exclude Gallardo. He's been pretty consistent over the years.

I might give them a run more than my original estimate... knowing we aren't basing that on a ton of data.

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If this team pitches pretty well..not even top of the league stuff..they will win a ton of games.

And if they stay healthy, they've got a legitimate chance to pitch at least "pretty well." Plus, our bullpen looks to be its usual stalwart self. And Buck seems to have an extra bit of fire this year or something. He was screaming about balls and strikes tonight. Fantastic stuff.

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Too early. Playing against 2 light hitting teams in cold weather with an early day off. We still haven't seen 2/5 of our rotation pitch. And I'm still not sold on Gallardo. I also worry about our feast or famine offense especially our defense with Jones out.

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If you made a win-total estimate for the Orioles before the season started... would you increase that estimate based on what you've seen so far? Or is it still too early?

As the question is stated here, yes, I would.

The Orioles are probably 1.5 games better just on the outcomes of games to date (figuring they should have won approximately 2.5 of 4 at home versus Twins and Rays).

In terms of the prospective win expectation, I'd say:

--The injuries to Jones and Hardy don't seem particularly serious, but perhaps you take away half an expected win for the possibility that they linger.

--Rickard is a significant addition that I probably wouldn't have counted on before the season (+1)

--The pitching, starters and bullpen, as well as their usage by Buck have overdelivered on any reasonable expectation (maybe +2 in terms of expectation of wins over the rest of the season)

--I like what we've seen from the offense so far, particularly the patience at the plate, but I don't think it's worth an adjustment just yet.

So, based on what I've seen so far, I'd raise my opening day expectation (approx .500) by 4 wins. I'd over/under the Orioles at 85 right now.

For what it's worth, I basically went through this exercise after every game of the 2015 Ravens season in articles published on RSR. It was an ugly fall from 9.5 expected wins at the start to 5 at the finish and I did my best to apportion by cause.

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