Some impressions of Mark Trumbo

[bobmc]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mark Trumbo hit his 38th HR of the season Monday. That's more than he had in 2014 and 2015 COMBINED <a href="https://t.co/P6BwwpNI1J">pic.twitter.com/P6BwwpNI1J</a></p>— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) <a href="

">August 23, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trumbo has hit 4 homers his last 5 games and 7 in his last 11 games. His last 7 hits have all been home runs.</p>— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) <a href="

">August 23, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mark Trumbo is the 11th player (since 1974) to have 7 straight hits leave the yard.<br><br>The only players with more? <a href="https://t.co/FbOiW7tfLx">pic.twitter.com/FbOiW7tfLx</a></p>— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) <a href="

">August 23, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[bobmc]

MASN's Ryan Romano:

"[Trumbo's] slump is more complex than meets the eye, however. Second-half Trumbo has strikeout and walk rates (26.4 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively) that are virtually identical to those of first-half Trumbo (25.9 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively). And although his ISO has fallen off from .294 to .254, he?s still hit for a superb amount of power. BABIP has accounted for most of the difference. In the first half, Trumbo augmented his clout with a sprinkling of singles, as his .327 BABIP indicated. Those hits have vanished in the second half -- his BABIP has cratered to .151, by far the worst mark in baseball.

As you and I know by now, BABIP is a highly volatile metric. When a hitter gets lucky on a few dying quails, he?ll see his BABIP rise undeservedly. Likewise, if he smokes line drives directly to opposing defenders, he?ll see it plummet without just cause. So has Trumbo just gotten some bad breaks in the second half? His hard-contact rate would suggest that?s the case. Pre-ASB, he hit the ball hard 38.3 percent of the time; post-ASB, he?s hit it hard 37.5 percent of the time. With only a modest dropoff in quality of contact, maybe he?ll see his luck turn around soon.

But simply hitting the ball hard isn?t enough: Those balls need to have the right elevation behind them. Grounders won?t go for hits as often as liners will, especially for a lumbering player like Trumbo. The spike in his ground ball rate -- from 38.3 percent in the first half to 45.8 percent in the second -- is therefore quite alarming, as is the concurrent dip in line drive rate from 18.5 percent to 9.4 percent. With more worm burners, Trumbo hasn?t garnered as many hits; this likely explains the modest decline in power as well."

http://www.masnsports.com/orioles-buzz/2016/08/whats-to-blame-for-trumbos-strange-slump.html

[OFFNY]

o

Could Trumbo's Adjusted Stance Explain His HR Streak?

(By Roch Kubatko)

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2016/08/could-trumbos-adjusted-stance-explain-home-run-streak.html

[Beef Supreme]

I don't know, but the Yankees won 9 years in a row from 1923-1931 (Babe Ruth won 8 of those, including six in a row from 1926-31, and Bob Meusel won the other one). Ralph Kiner won the HR title seven years in a row for the Pirates.

Edit -- It has happened a few other times. Frank (Home Run) Baker of the Philadelphia Athletics won the HR title four years in a row in 1911-14, and the Philadelphia Phillies won four in a row from 1917-20 (Gavvy Cravath won three of those).

Speaking of Gavvy Cravath: he won six HR titles in seven years from 1913-19. The only year he missed, he was one HR short of leading the league. So how come I never heard of him until today?

Jim Hunter was talking about how rare it is for a team to have a player lead the league in HRs for four straight years, by comparing the feat to Kiner's seven straight years leading the league in homers.

Does he just not get it?

[Redskins Rick]

Jim Hunter was talking about how rare it is for a team to have a player lead the league in HRs for four straight years, by comparing the feat to Kiner's seven straight years leading the league in homers.

Does he just not get it?

1946, hitting 23 HRs and leading MLB is kinda of silly. I know different ERA.

Not that he didnt end up hitting a ton of HRs in later years.

In 1947, while the NYG did hit over 200 home runs, the Senators hit a total of 42 team homers, and the White Sox wasn't much better at 53.

so maybe Hunter does get it?

[Beef Supreme]

1946, hitting 23 HRs and leading MLB is kinda of silly. I know different ERA.

Not that he didnt end up hitting a ton of HRs in later years.

In 1947, while the NYG did hit over 200 home runs, the Senators hit a total of 42 team homers, and the White Sox wasn't much better at 53.

so maybe Hunter does get it?

By comparing a team accomplishment with an individual accomplishment? I don't think he does.

[Redskins Rick]

By comparing a team accomplishment with an individual accomplishment? I don't think he does.

When Kiner was hitting those home runs, not many others in MLB is hitting home runs.

Now we have #9 guys, capable of hitting 20+ bombs a season.

[Frobby]

By comparing a team accomplishment with an individual accomplishment? I don't think he does.

They are each interesting accomplishments in their own right. It is more rare for a team to have three different players win the HR title in successive years than it is for the same player to win the HR title three times in a row. Schmidt, Kiner, Klein, Wilson, Cravath (twice), Rodriguez, Griffey, Killebrew, Ruth (twice), Baker, and H. Davis each won at least three consecutive HR titles. The only times a team has had three different HR leaders in three years were the '61-63 Giants (Cepeda, Mays, McCovey) and the '95-97 Rockies (Bichette, Galarraga, Walker). So, if the Trumbo wins the HR title this year, the O's will only be the third team to do it.

[LA2]

I don't know, but the Yankees won 9 years in a row from 1923-1931 (Babe Ruth won 8 of those, including six in a row from 1926-31, and Bob Meusel won the other one). Ralph Kiner won the HR title seven years in a row for the Pirates.

Edit -- It has happened a few other times. Frank (Home Run) Baker of the Philadelphia Athletics won the HR title four years in a row in 1911-14, and the Philadelphia Phillies won four in a row from 1917-20 (Gavvy Cravath won three of those).

Speaking of Gavvy Cravath: he won six HR titles in seven years from 1913-19. The only year he missed, he was one HR short of leading the league. So how come I never heard of him until today?

Only those who Cravath the obscure discover it.

[OFFNY]

o

Mark Trumbo: "I've had a Great Time Playing Here"

(By Roch Kubatko)

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2016/08/trumbo-ive-had-a-great-time-playing-here.html

[Redskins Rick]

I had to reread that article twice.

IMO, the headline, makes it seams like his days are over, when he uses the word "HAD".

One executive from outside the organization believes Trumbo can get four years guaranteed and may be in line for a fifth, but this is more of a feel than anything concrete. The market hasn’t taken shape and the regular season is more than a month from completion.

The executive sees Trumbo as the perfect fit in Baltimore. Trumbo isn’t putting up a fight. He’d love to return under the right circumstances.

[DrungoHazewood]

Speaking of Gavvy Cravath: he won six HR titles in seven years from 1913-19. The only year he missed, he was one HR short of leading the league. So how come I never heard of him until today?

Deadball era slugger who greatly benefitted from a short porch at the Baker Bowl. 92 of his 119 homers were hit at home, dramatically higher percentage than any of the big HR hitters of the live ball era. Didn't get to the majors for good until his 30s, played high minor league ball in the PCL and AA up to then. Had a 29-homer season in Minneapolis in 1911, which was one of the higher totals of all time up to that point. Perry Werden had a couple 40+ homer seasons in the 1890s in Minneapolis, maybe in the same park. Most of the crazy homer seasons prior to Ruth were due to parks with fences far shorter than would be allowed today.

[DrungoHazewood]

By comparing a team accomplishment with an individual accomplishment? I don't think he does.

Would it have been better if he just said the Pirates had the leader in homers seven years in a row?

[baltfan]

Thought I would look back at what others thought of the trade at the time.

Here is Fangraphs.

If you care about this deal at all, you care about it because of Trumbo. Trumbo is interesting, because despite all his shortcomings, he does do one thing really well.

There aren’t many folks who can sock dingers quite like Mark Trumbo. He’s averaged nearly 30 per 600 plate appearances throughout his career while playing mostly

in pitcher’s parks, and since 2011, only 13 people have hit more balls out of the park. Steamer doesn’t forecast much difference at the plate between Trumbo and Christian Walker,

but the Orioles didn’t really have a first baseman, designated hitter or corner outfielder, so room exists for both. Even in the (unlikely?) event that they’re able to retain Chris Davis,

the Orioles desperately needed bats, and that’s literally all Trumbo is, even if the end product isn’t much more than a league average hitter.

Even at his best, Trumbo isn’t going to make a huge difference; he just doesn’t get on base enough and doesn’t offer any value outside the batter’s box. But the most recent few months we

saw of Trumbo were his most impressive in years — and not only that, but the league agreed.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mark-trumbo-will-do-his-slugging-in-baltimore-now/

Before everyone jumps down my throat. I know his WAR is only 1.6. I also am not saying Fangraphs was trashing him or the trade. However, I can't imagine this team would be in contention without Trumbo.

[Can_of_corn]

Thought I would look back at what others thought of the trade at the time.

Here is Fangraphs.

If you care about this deal at all, you care about it because of Trumbo. Trumbo is interesting, because despite all his shortcomings, he does do one thing really well.

There aren’t many folks who can sock dingers quite like Mark Trumbo. He’s averaged nearly 30 per 600 plate appearances throughout his career while playing mostly

in pitcher’s parks, and since 2011, only 13 people have hit more balls out of the park. Steamer doesn’t forecast much difference at the plate between Trumbo and Christian Walker,

but the Orioles didn’t really have a first baseman, designated hitter or corner outfielder, so room exists for both. Even in the (unlikely?) event that they’re able to retain Chris Davis,

the Orioles desperately needed bats, and that’s literally all Trumbo is, even if the end product isn’t much more than a league average hitter.

Even at his best, Trumbo isn’t going to make a huge difference; he just doesn’t get on base enough and doesn’t offer any value outside the batter’s box. But the most recent few months we

saw of Trumbo were his most impressive in years — and not only that, but the league agreed.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mark-trumbo-will-do-his-slugging-in-baltimore-now/

Before everyone jumps down my throat. I know his WAR is only 1.6. I also am not saying Fangraphs was trashing him or the trade. However, I can't imagine this team would be in contention without Trumbo.

It depends. If not trading for Trumbo meant the O's had a few million more to throw at Fowler...

If what you mean is, if on the last day of ST, Trumbo had an injury that cost him the entire year you might be right.

Since I don't see anyone in house putting up a positive WAR over an entire season.