If YOU were Tampa Bay...

[allstar1579]

RZNJ posted this link in another section:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=posey

I'll say it again, Posey is a nice player, but he should not merit #1 overall consideration.

You are right on most of it, Wieters was a special player, he is better than Posey. Beckham and Alvarez are also special. But some teams do indeed pass on special players to fill needs. You have to understand team philosophy when considering what they might draft, and like Florida wouldn't pay 1/3 of their payroll to draft a 1B, TB likes to fill needs through the draft, moreso than taking the best available, that and they don't deal with Boras, so you can rule out Alvarez already. If they did, they would have taken Wieters to fill the C need last year. Personally I think they take Beckham, but it depends on their mood that day. The top 5-7 picks this year could flip flop like a fish on shore depending on the Boras effect, and what mood some of them are in.

[Greg Pappas]

RZNJ posted this link in another section:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=posey

I'll say it again, Posey is a nice player, but he should not merit #1 overall consideration.

I understand your thinking on Posey, but I think you're selling him just a bit short. That MiLB report is from March 2, and Posey has been lights out offensively and has improved a good deal behind the plate since then. It amounts to experience.

When comparing him to Wieters, Posey will likely never hit for the power that Wieters will, but I think Posey will match or even pass Wieters in BA. Neither run a lick, and defensively Posey should be as good. Posey has/is putting up superior offensive statistics in the same league Wieters played in... the ACC.

My point is that Posey seemingly only lacks the power potential of Wieters, so while not quite the prospect that Wieters was/is, Posey is a very solid pick for whoever gets him.

As far as the Jeter/Pujols thing... it's a bit over done in the comparison department, but your point is more than fair. Posey isn't the best talent, and TB should take what is considered that... whether that be TBeck or Alvarez. However, there is sentiment that TB may be better off going for a glaring need and the potential that Posey offers is certainly enticing.

You and I agree, in that if I were TB, I'd take whoever I had rated as the best player in the draft... regardless of need. But I'm not TB.

[markpolis]

You are right on most of it, Wieters was a special player, he is better than Posey. Beckham and Alvarez are also special. But some teams do indeed pass on special players to fill needs. You have to understand team philosophy when considering what they might draft, and like Florida wouldn't pay 1/3 of their payroll to draft a 1B, TB likes to fill needs through the draft, moreso than taking the best available, that and they don't deal with Boras, so you can rule out Alvarez already. If they did, they would have taken Wieters to fill the C need last year. Personally I think they take Beckham, but it depends on their mood that day. [/b]The top 5-7 picks this year could flip flop like a fish on shore depending on the Boras effect, and what mood some of them are in.

I'm going to give the D-Rays a bit more credit than that. David Price was clearly the best player available last year in the draft. The D-Rays selected him #1 overall and paid him $5.6mil. If they felt compelled to draft a catcher they could have drafted Wieters and signed him for a similar amount of money, but they choose to take the best player available instead of drafting a player based on organizational need. I think they'll do the same thing this year.

I seriously doubt the D-Rays (or any other team for that matter) makes draft selections based on which side of the bed they wake up on.

[McNulty]

When comparing him to Wieters, Posey will likely never hit for the power that Wieters will, but I think Posey will match or even pass Wieters in BA. Neither run a lick, and defensively Posey should be as good. Posey has/is putting up superior offensive statistics in the same league Wieters played in... the ACC.

My point is that Posey seemingly only lacks the power potential of Wieters, so while not quite the prospect that Wieters was/is, Posey is a very solid pick for whoever gets him.

OK Greg, I don't want to question the guru, but here are some stats for ya.

This is what Wieters did in 2007 (admittedly a slight down year for him)

2007 (hitting): One of three finalist for the Coleman-Company Johnny Bench Award, presented by AT&T ... Tabbed a first-team All-American by Rivals.com and a third-team All-America by Collegiate Baseball ... Also earned first-team all-ACC honors after hitting a team-best .364 with 16 extra-base hits in conference games ... Finished with one of the top two marks on the team in 10 offensive categories, including leading the team with 10 home runs, 59 RBI, 129 total bases and a .592 slugging percentage

In 2006, his best hitting year in college, he hit:

2006 (hitting): Became the 14th player in Georgia Tech history to earn first-team All-America honors by at least one publication, joining Major League All-Star Jason Varitek as the only catchers in school history to earn first-team All-America honors ... Named second-team all-ACC after posting a .333 average with eight HR and 57 RBI during the regular season ... Finished the year hitting .355 with 15 HR and 71 RBI ...

In Matt's freshman year, he hit 10 dingers.

Now, this is what Posey has put up this year so far, with 3 full weeks left in the regular season:

Player....................AVG GP-GS AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SLG%

8 Buster Posey..... .464 47-47 179 62 83 17 3 14 54 148 .827

With three weeks to go (plus the postseason and ACC Tourney), he's got 14 homers. And like you said, its against the same level of competition. So I can't see how you could say that he doesn't have the same "power" potential. Also, look at the difference in slugging percentage. Also, I don't want to hear the argument about "no protection" because Wieters had Wes Hodges hitting behind him for most of the year.

I also might add that Posey can run a lick, as he has 5 steals in 8 attempts. Its not blazing speed, but his speed would certainly be well above average for a catcher...which is why I compared him to Russell Martin a few posts ago.

[allstar1579]

I'm going to give the D-Rays a bit more credit than that. David Price was clearly the best player available last year in the draft. The D-Rays selected him #1 overall and paid him $5.6mil. If they felt compelled to draft a catcher they could have drafted Wieters and signed him for a similar amount of money, but they choose to take the best player available instead of drafting a player based on organizational need. I think they'll do the same thing this year.

I seriously doubt the D-Rays (or any other team for that matter) makes draft selections based on which side of the bed they wake up on.

No, but you know what I mean, Price was the clear cut top pitcher last year, but the best hitter was a catcher too, so it could have gone either way for them, it's not like they didn't have other SP that are very highly regarded, but look and see how many Boras clients they deal with. And Price was not represented by Scottie. It's not a money principle, it's a preference not to deal with a certain agent, there are more than one team (we were one of them) that won't deal with him.

I didn't mean they are going to wake up and pick out of a hat that day, I mean the top 5 guys or so are all so close in talent for various reasons because there is no CLEAR cut #1 this year like Price OR Wieters. Their decision could go any of 5 directions and it wouldn't surprise anyone.

[Rockbird]

Woops, clicked Hosmer, but I meant to choose Posey since I think they have an organizational need at catcher.

[Stotle]

No, but you know what I mean, Price was the clear cut top pitcher last year, but the best hitter was a catcher too, so it could have gone either way for them, it's not like they didn't have other SP that are very highly regarded, but look and see how many Boras clients they deal with. And Price was not represented by Scottie. It's not a money principle, it's a preference not to deal with a certain agent, there are more than one team (we were one of them) that won't deal with him.

I didn't mean they are going to wake up and pick out of a hat that day, I mean the top 5 guys or so are all so close in talent for various reasons because there is no CLEAR cut #1 this year like Price OR Wieters. Their decision could go any of 5 directions and it wouldn't surprise anyone.

LaPorta was probably the top bat last year, but he played a much less important position (1b).

[markpolis]

LaPorta was probably the top bat last year, but he played a much less important position (1b).

Wait a second here, I thought you said Wieters was the Top Collegiate bat and that is why the Orioles selected him?

Also, you said Wieters playing catcher had "zero/nothing/nada" to do with why the Orioles drafting him. If LaPorta was the top bat last year, then why did we draft Wieters?

This is called having your cake and eating it too.

[Stotle]

Wait a second here, I thought you said Wieters was the Top Collegiate bat and that is why the Orioles selected him?

Also, you said Wieters playing catcher had "zero/nothing/nada" to do with why the Orioles drafting him. If LaPorta was the top bat last year, then why did we draft Wieters?

This is called having your cake and eating it too.

Wieters was the better overall player and their bats were comparable, though LaPorta was better at the time of the draft and Wieters projects to be slightly better. LaPorta also had a bad junior season (primarily due to an oblique strain), so there may have been some trepidation.

I gave the nod to LaPorta just now based on his stats as a freshman/sophomore. Wieters's stats were not elite, but he projected to be the best overall bat. LaPorta was the best bat at the time of the draft.

Sort of like Greg stating Hosmer could be the best bat in the draft though Alvarez is probably the best right now.

[Greg Pappas]

OK Greg, I don't want to question the guru, but here are some stats for ya.

This is what Wieters did in 2007 (admittedly a slight down year for him)

2007 (hitting): One of three finalist for the Coleman-Company Johnny Bench Award, presented by AT&T ... Tabbed a first-team All-American by Rivals.com and a third-team All-America by Collegiate Baseball ... Also earned first-team all-ACC honors after hitting a team-best .364 with 16 extra-base hits in conference games ... Finished with one of the top two marks on the team in 10 offensive categories, including leading the team with 10 home runs, 59 RBI, 129 total bases and a .592 slugging percentage

In 2006, his best hitting year in college, he hit:

2006 (hitting): Became the 14th player in Georgia Tech history to earn first-team All-America honors by at least one publication, joining Major League All-Star Jason Varitek as the only catchers in school history to earn first-team All-America honors ... Named second-team all-ACC after posting a .333 average with eight HR and 57 RBI during the regular season ... Finished the year hitting .355 with 15 HR and 71 RBI ...

In Matt's freshman year, he hit 10 dingers.

Now, this is what Posey has put up this year so far, with 3 full weeks left in the regular season:

Player....................AVG GP-GS AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SLG%

8 Buster Posey..... .464 47-47 179 62 83 17 3 14 54 148 .827

With three weeks to go (plus the postseason and ACC Tourney), he's got 14 homers. And like you said, its against the same level of competition. So I can't see how you could say that he doesn't have the same "power" potential. Also, look at the difference in slugging percentage. Also, I don't want to hear the argument about "no protection" because Wieters had Wes Hodges hitting behind him for most of the year.

I also might add that Posey can run a lick, as he has 5 steals in 8 attempts. Its not blazing speed, but his speed would certainly be well above average for a catcher...which is why I compared him to Russell Martin a few posts ago.

I'm soooo far from a guru, but...

I'm well aware of Posey's stats in comparison to Wieters. Power projection is based off of scouting views on players, and scouts agree that the larger and more powerful Wieters projects to hit for more as a pro than Posey. Their assessment of Wieters appears at this point to be accurate. Posey has power, just not as much as Wieters.

I project Posey to hit for a higher average than Wieters, and I also think Posey will have solid power as a pro. I've projected Posey as a 15-20 HR guy, whereas Weiters should be a 25-30 HR guy.

As far as their running ability, Posey will not steal bases as a pro, and as I said, the scouting reports say he can't run a lick.

Here is MiLB's report on his ability to run...

"Running Speed: He's more athletic than most catchers, but he's still a slightly below-average runner.

Base running: While he doesn't have the foot speed to be a good runner, he does have decent instincts."

I'm just trying to be informed as best I can. Scouting reports may change a bit over time, but running ability isn't something that normally does.

[markpolis]

I'm soooo far from a guru, but...

I'm well aware of Posey's stats in comparison to Wieters. Power projection is based off of scouting views on players, and scouts agree that the larger and more powerful Wieters projects to hit for more as a pro than Posey. Their assessment of Wieters appears at this point to be accurate. Posey has power, just not as much as Wieters.

I project Posey to hit for a higher average than Wieters, and I also think Posey will have solid power as a pro. I've projected Posey as a 15-20 HR guy, whereas Weiters should be a 25-30 HR guy.

As far as their running ability, Posey will not steal bases as a pro, and as I said, the scouting reports say he can't run a lick.

Here is MiLB's report on his ability to run...

"Running Speed: He's more athletic than most catchers, but he's still a slightly below-average runner.

Base running: While he doesn't have the foot speed to be a good runner, he does have decent instincts."

I'm just trying to be informed as best I can. Scouting reports may change a bit over time, but running ability isn't something that normally does.

Greg, I agree with your assessment but I think 12-15 HR's is closer to Posey's max power potential. He's more of a slasher, gap to gap line drive hitter. Whereas Wieters projects to be a 3-4-5 type hitter, I see Posey more as a #2 hitter.

[rhall]

I'm going to give the D-Rays a bit more credit than that. David Price was clearly the best player available last year in the draft. The D-Rays selected him #1 overall and paid him $5.6mil. If they felt compelled to draft a catcher they could have drafted Wieters and signed him for a similar amount of money, but they choose to take the best player available instead of drafting a player based on organizational need. I think they'll do the same thing this year.

I seriously doubt the D-Rays (or any other team for that matter) makes draft selections based on which side of the bed they wake up on.

That's an interesting thought. I also don't think catcher is as glaring a need as everyone is saying. They do have one solid prospect behind the plate - John Jaso. He is struggling in Double-A right now, but he hit over .300 for 4 years before that, so I think he'll figure it out. AND their starting catcher in the big leagues, Dioner Navarro, is no slouch. He's only 24, and he's coming on as a hitter. He used to be a top prospect so this shouldn't be looked at as a fluke. He's hitting .333/.371/.424 right now and he hit .285/.340/.475 in the second half last year.

Does this mean that they won't take Buster Posey? Not necessarily. But if you're predicting the Rays to take him with positional need a major contributing factor, I don't agree with that. If he goes #1 overall, it's because the Rays like his potential and price tag better than others.

Posey's being a catcher is a big deal, because good catchers are hard to find, making him more valuable, but his value to the Rays shouldn't be because they don't have any catchers in their system.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg, I agree with your assessment but I think 12-15 HR's is closer to Posey's max power potential. He's more of a slasher, gap to gap line drive hitter. Whereas Wieters projects to be a 3-4-5 type hitter, I see Posey more as a #2 hitter.

Thanks. Yeah... Posey certainly could rate as a 12-15 guy, and your determination that he'll be a #2 hitter could also be true, but with him being a below average runner it may slide him down the order. Good post.

[NCRaven]

I think it's posturing on their part.

Why should they posture? Do you think that threatening to pick Posey will drive down Boras' asking price for Alvarez or Beckham when he knows that some teams (wink, wink, nod, nod, Andy) will go over slot to sign one of them with, oh say, the 4th pick? Since there's no trading of draft picks, there is no real reason, other than that, to throw up a smoke screen.

[McNulty]

As far as their running ability, Posey will not steal bases as a pro, and as I said, the scouting reports say he can't run a lick.

Here is MiLB's report on his ability to run...

"Running Speed: He's more athletic than most catchers, but he's still a slightly below-average runner.

Base running: While he doesn't have the foot speed to be a good runner, he does have decent instincts."

I'm just trying to be informed as best I can. Scouting reports may change a bit over time, but running ability isn't something that normally does.

With all due respect to MiLB, I disagree completely about the baserunning. I understand your point completely about projection of their bats, and how that will translate to the next level. I was merely stating how its possible that he could have as much power as Wieters.

But the baserunning thing is flat wrong (just like I was yesterday ). Mike Martin himself has talked about how Posey's baserunning abilities are an asset to their team. With his body it doesn't look like he would run well, and if you look at how his younger brother is built you might think he will only get bigger as he ages, but I'm telling you I've seen him run and he's just as fast as Russell Martin.