The Orioles would build a better team if they sold

[waroriole]

I like winning. Present winning is much better than potential future winning.

[atomic]

They shouldn't tell them that, they both have better teams than ours.

In your option they do but on the field where it actually counts they don't. Seems if you can't enjoy a team that is in first place in August, perhaps you should find another pastime.

[FuManchu]

Interesting. Where did you find those rates?

This is what I remembered reading a while ago and attempted to paraphrase...

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

I saw a slightly updated version here later today...

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html?appsrc=sc

[weams]

I like winning. Present winning is much better than potential future winning.

I am surprised that everyone does not know this fact. As Fact.

[Number5]

I like winning. Present winning is much better than potential future winning.

[video=youtube;8gy5a4wMpIw]

[Number5]

Sorry, forgot to warn that the above is NSFW

[Frobby]

Didn't the Astros just sell off one of their top starters? They are but a few games out of 1st while we're essentially in the same boat being within a few games of two teams. Now I'm not in favor of a fire sale as the OP suggests, but the question really should be phrased towards the best moves for the franchise moving forward, which I think he has in mind.

I have yet to see an argument showing me that I should have any confidence that this is a WS champion team.

And the future looks far brighter than it does today. Who could argue the prospect of Bundy being added to the lineup with Gausman's best years ahead of him as well as others who can move up from the minors to allow for a more affordable starting lineup which allows for more flexibility towards positional players?

The farm club is depleted due to 4+ years of being competitive and if you don't have a realistic shot this year, sell some of those assets that won't be part of the future and move on. Attendance is terrible. The team needs sustained winning simply to survive. Can anyone dare to gauge what attendance would be if we were .500 at home? Devastating.

I'm with the OP in mindset, just not particulars. It seems too many are dreamy-eyed, impatient, and willing to put all their cards in for a title this year and I'm here to tell you it's not very likely. We can argue that point ad nauseum in another thread and I believe we have - just 2 weeks ago we had a WS winning thread for the O's which quickly died when reality kicked in.

I think there are other teams more likely to win the World Series than we are, but I'd rather take my chances with this team than blow it up and hope we can rebuild and have a better chance at some undefined date in the future. I don't think a rebuild here would be that easy to accomplish, and we are in a window where NY is not very good and we need to try to take advantage of that.

[SteveA]

Didn't the Astros just sell off one of their top starters? They are but a few games out of 1st while we're essentially in the same boat being within a few games of two teams. Now I'm not in favor of a fire sale as the OP suggests, but the question really should be phrased towards the best moves for the franchise moving forward, which I think he has in mind.

I have yet to see an argument showing me that I should have any confidence that this is a WS champion team.

And the future looks far brighter than it does today. Who could argue the prospect of Bundy being added to the lineup with Gausman's best years ahead of him as well as others who can move up from the minors to allow for a more affordable starting lineup which allows for more flexibility towards positional players?

The farm club is depleted due to 4+ years of being competitive and if you don't have a realistic shot this year, sell some of those assets that won't be part of the future and move on. Attendance is terrible. The team needs sustained winning simply to survive. Can anyone dare to gauge what attendance would be if we were .500 at home? Devastating.

I'm with the OP in mindset, just not particulars. It seems too many are dreamy-eyed, impatient, and willing to put all their cards in for a title this year and I'm here to tell you it's not very likely. We can argue that point ad nauseum in another thread and I believe we have - just 2 weeks ago we had a WS winning thread for the O's which quickly died when reality kicked in.

A title is never "very likely" for any team. The playoffs are a crap shoot. Even the most dominant team in the regular season probably has less than a 25% chance of winning it all once the playoffs start. See the 2001 Mariners. We've had a whole bunch of wild cards win the World Series.

So trying to make the distinction between a team that can make the playoffs and a World Series Champion team is a waste of time. I think the O's can make the playoffs, and if they do they have just about as much a shot at winning the World Series as any other team in the tournament.

The Astros traded Scott Feldman, he isn't one of their top starters. He's started some games and been in the pen for some. Maybe a 2016 Oriole comparison might be Worley.

And where did I talk about "putting all our cards in" this year? I was objecting to the original post which advocated giving up on this season and trading to build for the future. Being opposed to that doesn't mean I want to trade away a ton of critical minor league depth. There's a middle way, which the Orioles took, they traded a couple guys who do not look likely to be major contributors to get some marginal improvement to the team.

[atomic]

I don't buy such inflexible logic/rhetoric. If this is the best move for the franchise moving forward in spite of the unconventionality, you make that tough decision. Be damned with how it HAS been done. You need to take into consideration all factors, not such the mantra of "this is how we have always done it" type of approach.

As I eluded to, Houston just broke that mold. They are a contender possibly better equipped than we are. Not an aging team with the best years ahead of them. They opted for the future and still will play for today. It's not like giving up a chip or two disqualifies you. Could we win without Trumbo? I think so, especially having signed Pearce. Wieters? Certainly.

You are going to use a team as example that has had 6 straight losing seasons and its first chance to compete doesn't make an effort? They have more prospects than they positions for them to play. They should be trying to win now.

[DrungoHazewood]

I have yet to see an argument showing me that I should have any confidence that this is a WS champion team.

There is little meaningful difference between any two playoff teams. A 110-win team might have a 1-in-4 or 1-in-3 chance of winning the Series on day one of the playoffs.

You could say that no team, not the '27 Yankees, not the '69 Orioles, not anyone could ever make an argument that their odds of winning it all are even 50-50 in today's playoff setup.

[DrungoHazewood]

We'll kindly disagree on everything here.

The counter argument here is what's often referred to as math.

[Redskins Rick]

Didn't the Astros just sell off one of their top starters? They are but a few games out of 1st while we're essentially in the same boat being within a few games of two teams. Now I'm not in favor of a fire sale as the OP suggests, but the question really should be phrased towards the best moves for the franchise moving forward, which I think he has in mind.

I have yet to see an argument showing me that I should have any confidence that this is a WS champion team.

And the future looks far brighter than it does today. Who could argue the prospect of Bundy being added to the lineup with Gausman's best years ahead of him as well as others who can move up from the minors to allow for a more affordable starting lineup which allows for more flexibility towards positional players?

The farm club is depleted due to 4+ years of being competitive and if you don't have a realistic shot this year, sell some of those assets that won't be part of the future and move on. Attendance is terrible. The team needs sustained winning simply to survive. Can anyone dare to gauge what attendance would be if we were .500 at home? Devastating.

I'm with the OP in mindset, just not particulars. It seems too many are dreamy-eyed, impatient, and willing to put all their cards in for a title this year and I'm here to tell you it's not very likely. We can argue that point ad nauseum in another thread and I believe we have - just 2 weeks ago we had a WS winning thread for the O's which quickly died when reality kicked in.

You mean trading Feldman?

He's their top starter, you are referring to?

This is not a fire sale.

DD pointed out that the trade to Boston for Miller was a buy-buy.

Both teams having a need.

[weams]

Says you. I look at matchups, not numbers.

Says everyone who knows. Over the totality of events that could be analyzed.. It's ok for you to like your method, it's not ok for you to try to explain it or defend it to others. The math proves you incorrect.

[DrungoHazewood]

Translation?

Use something like the log5 method to figure out the winning percentage of one team vs another, and apply that to several short playoff series. Assume that even an extreme playoff matchup is a .620 team against a .550 team. The result is going to be that the .620 team wins maybe 60% of the time. Once you follow that through three rounds of playoffs the best team in the league will win it all maybe 30% of the time, usually less now that we have so much parity the best record is often 96-66.

If you're basing teambuilding strategies on having a high likelihood of winning the Series you will fail. All you can plan for is building a team that's good enough to get to October.

[weams]

Sorry but I don't agree with such logic utilizing past events to justify or coerce current decisions. Decisions are made through acquiring all facts known with an eye towards your goal. If their goal was to win this year, we probably would've aimed higher than Gallardo and Miley, don't you think?

You think they have the money or prospects to aim higher?