The Orioles would build a better team if they sold

[WEAVERMAN]

The Indians are 7 times more likely to win the WS than us? Makes no sense

Did that same outfit predict us to finish 5th? If Tillman and Bundy can pitch well and Gausman pitches like he's capable, we would have a good shot.

[GoldGlove21]

In your option they do but on the field where it actually counts they don't. Seems if you can't enjoy a team that is in first place in August, perhaps you should find another pastime.

I do like seeing them win, but I also have a good idea of what they are giving up to do it. For me there is Championship or bust and champions are not crowned by the regular season win-loss record. With that said, anything can happen and of course I wish the O's the best.

[GoldGlove21]

I take that your position is that it's inertial reasoning or relatively mindless groupthink when a team doesn't throw in the towel when in first place in mid-August if the org isn't set up "right". Should the 1997 Orioles have been sellers because they were old and had a poor farm system?

Maybe.......

[DirtyBird]

So there is an 80% chance the Cubs won't win the WS. Seems like long shot for them, maybe they should be selling?

Funny, the same model gave us an 80% chance of not making the playoffs on July 30th last year.

[Frobby]

Sheesh, how do they have the Blue Jays at 8.9% and Red Sox at 8.4% while putting the O's at 2.6%? Those sound like beginning of the year percentages; not current. I'm guessing the numbers just weren't updated.

No, those numbers are changed every day. Essentially, BP is looking at two things: (1) strength of remaining schedule (including home/road), and (2) PECOTA projections for how the players will do the rest of the season. We play more games against teams over .500 than Toronto or Boston the rest of the way, which weighs against us, and PECOTA didn't like us when the season started and thinks we will regress.

If everything else were equal, each division winner would have a 12.5% chance to win the World Series, and each wild card team would have a 6.25% chance (since they each play a coin-flip play-in game). So any team that BP rates at better than 12.5% right now has to be an odds-on favorite to win its division, and be likely to be better than whoever they are facing in the 1st round of the playoffs.

[Frobby]

FWIW, Dave Szymborkski runs a similar projection, but using ZiPS instead of PECOTA. On Monday, he had our odds of winning the World Series at 5.3%, compared to 6.5% for Toronto and 5.1% for Boston. http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/page/tradedeadline_whohelpedthemselves/updates-zips-playoff-probabilities

[GoldGlove21]

I think trying to defend it or argue it to others is within bounds. Trying to present it as having the logical or mathematical high ground is a definitely folly, though.

I cannot express how strongly and completely I disagree with the take of the OP.

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I am as big a fan as any and my argument is simple.

1.) Win now for one, maybe two seasons and then struggle to compete as Davis and Jones continue to age and we face losing guys like Wieters and Trumbo.

OR

2.) We sell off some parts for some serious prospects. Maybe we rebuild heavily or maybe we deal those prospects for a stud starting pitcher. I did not say trade Manny or Schoop even though it might eventually come to that as these guys are going to be highly expensive.

If someone would tell me that you will win a World Series, but you will be terrible for a decade I would take it. But if you change the if to a might, then what I am willing to give up decreases. You can easily make an argument that the Orioles trading for players to get better over the last few years has cost them a better run at a championship now. When the Orioles are ready to deal away guys because they need to, other teams may be ready to do the same and the Orioles could get pennies on the dollar.

[GoldGlove21]

A title is never "very likely" for any team. The playoffs are a crap shoot. Even the most dominant team in the regular season probably has less than a 25% chance of winning it all once the playoffs start. See the 2001 Mariners. We've had a whole bunch of wild cards win the World Series.

So trying to make the distinction between a team that can make the playoffs and a World Series Champion team is a waste of time. I think the O's can make the playoffs, and if they do they have just about as much a shot at winning the World Series as any other team in the tournament.

The Astros traded Scott Feldman, he isn't one of their top starters. He's started some games and been in the pen for some. Maybe a 2016 Oriole comparison might be Worley.

And where did I talk about "putting all our cards in" this year? I was objecting to the original post which advocated giving up on this season and trading to build for the future. Being opposed to that doesn't mean I want to trade away a ton of critical minor league depth. There's a middle way, which the Orioles took, they traded a couple guys who do not look likely to be major contributors to get some marginal improvement to the team.

The Yankees have 27 of them so I disagree, but I think your overall mindset of once you make the playoffs anything can happen is something I agree with. This team hasn't pitched well as a rotation, they can't score when they are not hitting homeruns and they have a crap record on the road. I think we are one and done in the playoffs. I am a huge Orioles fan, but I am not blind and I have seen a lot of baseball.

[weams]

Did that same outfit predict us to finish 5th? If Tillman and Bundy can pitch well and Gausman pitches like he's capable, we would have a good shot.

That is not math. That is guys using their predictive analytics. Math says that we are in good shape if we win the division. BP does not determine who can win a World Series or even how likely it is. They have models that they think predict that though.

[GoldGlove21]

I think the Cubs should have been sellers this year. Just a matter of time before Jake turns into a pumpkin and injuries hit.

The Cubs have the magic ticket. A true ace who can pitch 2-3 times in a 7 game series. Do I think the Cubs will win a World Series, nope.

[weams]

The Yankees have 27 of them so I disagree, but I think your overall mindset of once you make the playoffs anything can happen is something I agree with. This team hasn't pitched well as a rotation, they can't score when they are not hitting homeruns and they have a crap record on the road. I think we are one and done in the playoffs. I am a huge Orioles fan, but I am not blind and I have seen a lot of baseball.

How many Rings have they won since they changed the rules? None.

[GoldGlove21]

Maybe because they have deep farm clubs. Beside that, tons of money. We don't have either. And woeful attendance to boot which can only tighten PA's grip on his wallet.

We have a few guys who are likely not to be signed next year and if you can get maximum value for them now, you should consider.

Duquette, Showalter and Angelos are going all in for one reason. They have no other opportunity. Duquette and Showalter are not sticking around for a rebuild. Angelos isn't getting any younger either. The Orioles should have been buyers years ago so they could make an earlier and longer deep run. We are at the end of the run and everyone knows that.

[Number5]

I am as big a fan as any and my argument is simple.

1.) Win now for one, maybe two seasons and then struggle to compete as Davis and Jones continue to age and we face losing guys like Wieters and Trumbo.

OR

2.) We sell off some parts for some serious prospects. Maybe we rebuild heavily or maybe we deal those prospects for a stud starting pitcher. I did not say trade Manny or Schoop even though it might eventually come to that as these guys are going to be highly expensive.

If someone would tell me that you will win a World Series, but you will be terrible for a decade I would take it. But if you change the if to a might, then what I am willing to give up decreases. You can easily make an argument that the Orioles trading for players to get better over the last few years has cost them a better run at a championship now. When the Orioles are ready to deal away guys because they need to, other teams may be ready to do the same and the Orioles could get pennies on the dollar.

The only difference that I see between points one and two as you've presented it is that under point one, there is a decent chance of winning this season and next. All of your "negatives" that you list in point one are also true in point two. Davus and Jones would have the same contracts in either scenario. Trumbo and Wieters are likely to leave either way. Machado abd Schoop would be expensive to retain in either case. One could even reasonably argue that perhaps winning a championship could factor in the ability to retain talent. It certainly wouldn't hurt. There is no logic in dismantling a contending, first place team. Sorry, but it is very hard to find anything to agree with you on here.

[GoldGlove21]

How many Rings have they won since they changed the rules? None.

None and they still have 9 times as many as us. They have 5 since we won our last. If you want to see why the Yankees have been is simple. They signed guys to big deals who were aging out of their prime and they traded players in the minors to get proven players to always win now. They have rebuilt the farm system a good bit and with the recent trades they are in good shape as some of the more expensive contracts start to come off the books.

[GoldGlove21]

The only difference that I see between points one and two as you've presented it is that under point one, there is a decent chance of winning this season and next. All of your "negatives" that you list in point one are also true in point two. Davus and Jones would have the same contracts in either scenario. Trumbo and Wieters are likely to leave either way. Machado abd Schoop would be expensive to retain in either case. One could even reasonably argue that perhaps winning a championship could factor in the ability to retain talent. It certainly wouldn't hurt. There is no logic in dismantling a contending, first place team. Sorry, but it is very hard to find anything to agree with you on here.

Right, so this year and next. That is the run and after that we are in trouble again IMO. I LOVE Orioles baseball, but I could see this scenario coming years ago and the trades we have made for half year rentals or to sign mediocre free agents hasn't helped.