How can one determine the level of competition these guys are up against?

[DocJJ]

Sure, Gordon Beckham has hit 22 HR and .400. But what is the strength of Georgia's schedule? or Florida State's? or South Carolina's?

In other words, yes these guys have put up eye-popping numbers. But isn't it tricky interpreting them? How good is the pitching they're facing?

Hosmer fanned 3 times against a guy who's considered a top high school pitching prospect. Maybe his stats come from teeing off on mediocre pitching. For example, on youtube you can see him crush a home run (my personal favorite video clip, as you can hear the exasperated catcher yell "G-d Damn..." right after he hits it). If you look at the clip, this is a belt high inner half fastball that just isn't very fast. Or maybe it's some kind of slow breaking pitch that didn't break...

Which of these top-tier guys has faced the best pitching?

I'm inclined to think maybe Gordon Beckham might be for real, as he fared quite well in the Cape Cod League.

I'd be happy with Smoak or Posey too. Posey's really been growing on me lately for some reason.

[allstar1579]

Sure, Gordon Beckham has hit 22 HR and .400. But what is the strength of Georgia's schedule? or Florida State's? or South Carolina's?

In other words, yes these guys have put up eye-popping numbers. But isn't it tricky interpreting them? How good is the pitching they're facing?

Hosmer fanned 3 times against a guy who's considered a top high school pitching prospect. Maybe his stats come from teeing off on mediocre pitching. For example, on youtube you can see him crush a home run (my personal favorite video clip, as you can hear the exasperated catcher yell "G-d Damn..." right after he hits it). If you look at the clip, this is a belt high inner half fastball that just isn't very fast. Or maybe it's some kind of slow breaking pitch that didn't break...

Which of these top-tier guys has faced the best pitching?

I'm inclined to think maybe Gordon Beckham might be for real, as he fared quite well in the Cape Cod League.

I'd be happy with Smoak or Posey too. Posey's really been growing on me lately for some reason.

McNulty and I were just having a heated debate about this the other day. Good luck figuring it out

[McNulty]

McNulty and I were just having a heated debate about this the other day. Good luck figuring it out

Indeed we did. If you want to get a sense of the current stats for each conference, to get a better gauge on the level of competition in the major baseball conferences, go here:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1319167&postcount=44

As far as high school goes, you got me. I coach part-time and its difficult to tell who is going to do well in college and who won't based upon their performances unless they are absolute studs. So I can imagine the nightmare for scouts trying to project their jump to pro ball.

[Greg Pappas]

Sure, Gordon Beckham has hit 22 HR and .400. But what is the strength of Georgia's schedule? or Florida State's? or South Carolina's?

In other words, yes these guys have put up eye-popping numbers. But isn't it tricky interpreting them? How good is the pitching they're facing?

Hosmer fanned 3 times against a guy who's considered a top high school pitching prospect. Maybe his stats come from teeing off on mediocre pitching. For example, on youtube you can see him crush a home run (my personal favorite video clip, as you can hear the exasperated catcher yell "G-d Damn..." right after he hits it). If you look at the clip, this is a belt high inner half fastball that just isn't very fast. Or maybe it's some kind of slow breaking pitch that didn't break...

Which of these top-tier guys has faced the best pitching?

I'm inclined to think maybe Gordon Beckham might be for real, as he fared quite well in the Cape Cod League.

I'd be happy with Smoak or Posey too. Posey's really been growing on me lately for some reason.

Who struck Hosmer out three times?

[DocJJ]

..I read a blurb about it in Baseball America a few weeks back, I'll try to dig up a link.

The point is a top-shelf high school pitcher got him out readily. So it's hard to judge these guys unless you're familiar with their competition.

[Greg Pappas]

..I read a blurb about it in Baseball America a few weeks back, I'll try to dig up a link.

The point is a top-shelf high school pitcher got him out readily. So it's hard to judge these guys unless you're familiar with their competition.

Hosmer has excelled against the best HS hurlers during the season and in All-Star competition. While I understand what you're getting at, Hosmer isn't among the hitters dicussed as the best in the past decade because he feasts on inferior pitching, it's because he rises to the occassion against the best.

I know that Adrian Nieto struck out 3 times against Ethan Martin, but I missed who got Hosmer thrice. Regardless, interesting thread topic.

Edit: One point to remember is that most, if not all, of us are dependent upon pro scouts' observations and projections. They take level of competition into account... but you're right about it being a difficult part of the whole equation. Again, good thread.

[Stotle]

My own opinion on the matter is you tell by watching them play. It's true that a stat sheet won't let you know if player A is "feasting on weak compeititon" but you can sure tell by watching.

Here is a good example (and another chance for me to knock G-Bex ).

The first game I saw of his was earlier in the season against Oregon State. The game was taped and I read that he homered in his first at bat. I thought, "Wow, lucky me! I get to see a game where this kid was 'on' at the plate." Well, he was facing Peavey, a pretty highly touted freshman in the PAC-10 (I think he is out of NoCal) -- relies primarily on his fastball, which is a burner (low 90s). Turns out, he fell behind to Beckham 3-0 in the first at bat. The 4th pitch was a flat fastball out over the plate and belt high.

You may think, "So what? That's hitting -- waiting for your pitch and crushing it." Well, sort of. But watching the reply was the first time I noticed the loopy hitch in his swing and his high elbow in the load. What I took away from the HR was Beckham is very good when he can sit fastball, but I had to wonder how much of his success is just punishing college pitchers who 1) can't command their fastball in the zone, and 2) don't all throw in the low 90s.

This isn't to say Beckham stinks -- far from it. I just thought it was a good example of what's being discussed in the thread. If you look at the stats from the OSU/UG game, it showed G-Bex striking again. If you watch the tape, the AB raised more questions with me than an 0-3 in the box score might have.

[Greg Pappas]

My own opinion on the matter is you tell by watching them play. It's true that a stat sheet won't let you know if player A is "feasting on weak compeititon" but you can sure tell by watching.

Here is a good example (and another chance for me to knock G-Bex ).

The first game I saw of his was earlier in the season against Oregon State. The game was taped and I read that he homered in his first at bat. I thought, "Wow, lucky me! I get to see a game where this kid was 'on' at the plate." Well, he was facing Peavey, a pretty highly touted freshman in the PAC-10 (I think he is out of NoCal) -- relies primarily on his fastball, which is a burner (low 90s). Turns out, he fell behind to Beckham 3-0 in the first at bat. The 4th pitch was a flat fastball out over the plate and belt high.

You may think, "So what? That's hitting -- waiting for your pitch and crushing it." Well, sort of. But watching the reply was the first time I noticed the loopy hitch in his swing and his high elbow in the load. What I took away from the HR was Beckham is very good when he can sit fastball, but I had to wonder how much of his success is just punishing college pitchers who 1) can't command their fastball in the zone, and 2) don't all throw in the low 90s.

This isn't to say Beckham stinks -- far from it. I just thought it was a good example of what's being discussed in the thread. If you look at the stats from the OSU/UG game, it showed G-Bex striking again. If you watch the tape, the AB raised more questions with me than an 0-3 in the box score might have.

Yeah... most hitters have something in their swing that concerns scouts. Hosmer has had trouble with tight-in pitches on his hands, and will need to adjust. At least that was one scouts view.

I wish that I had the skills to scout myself. Then I'd be able to tell everyone a great deal more about each prospect, giving far greater details regarding their particular strengths and weaknesses. One can dream...

[Stotle]

Yeah... most hitters have something in their swing that concerns scouts. Hosmer has had trouble with tight-in pitches on his hands, and will need to adjust. At least that was one scouts view.

I wish that I had the skills to scout myself. Then I'd be able to tell everyone a great deal more about each prospect, giving far greater details regarding their particular strengths and weaknesses. One can dream...

I think you do a fine job of conveying the views of various scouts, compiling them and reaching your own conclusions. I'm not sure going through the trouble of trying to scout the kids on your own is worth it when you are undertaking to cover as much as your are.

[Greg Pappas]

I think you do a fine job of conveying the views of various scouts, compiling them and reaching your own conclusions. I'm not sure going through the trouble of trying to scout the kids on your own is worth it when you are undertaking to cover as much as your are.

I really appreciate that. Thanks.

[allstar1579]

I think you do a fine job of conveying the views of various scouts, compiling them and reaching your own conclusions. I'm not sure going through the trouble of trying to scout the kids on your own is worth it when you are undertaking to cover as much as your are.

I agree completely. While being a scout would be fun, you are covering much more than a scout would. You are covering what entire networks of scouts are reporting, and intelligent enough to pick out some of the key things to look for, keep doing what you're doing man we appreciate it.

That being said...Posey sucks. JUST KIDDING!!!!!! (only retort I can come up with your shots at Beckham, and you know its just in good fun.)

No, but the everyone has problems in their swing is so true. Look at Howard and his problem hitting offspeed stuff, much worse a few years ago, but still contributes to his high strikeouts. And imagine what the scouts were saying about Sheffield's swing when he got drafted, and he turned in a pretty decent career