Your (just for fun) draft day impossible dream scenarios...

[bej6789]

I understand Hosmer will 90% go in the first, but him falling out of the top 20 isn't so farfetched to me with his demands. If the Tigers or Yankees didn't exist I think there could be a fit.

[odogs101]

Kinda funny since I was thinking something similar earlier today.

Mine was-

1ST RD Alvarez

2ND RD Scheppers/Ross or another solid college arm

3RD RD Anthony Hewitt H.S. SS CT

I've seem him listed as very raw but with the highest upside in the draft.

More realistic? Maybe but BA did have Hewitt coming out of nowhere to get drafted by the Phillies in the first round of their mock.

[furryburres]

Semi-realistic? I'll give you semi-realistic.

1st round:

TAM: Beckham

PIT: Smoak

KC: Matusz

BAL: Alvarez

We get Scheppers in the second round, then Hewitt in the third.

A disappointing season drops Harold MArtinez tto the 8th round, and we take him for funsies.

[Jammer7]

If Beckham, Alvarez and Matusz go in the first three, then I would take.......

Eric Hosmer 1B* with the fourth pick. Smoak would be safer and quicker to Baltimore, but I think Jordan is in on this kid and he's staying quiet about it. When people like Keith Law and such are saying we're going to take a college kid, I don't buy it. AM is the master of misinformation.

With the competition he's played against for the last two years, he's been scouted about as thoroughly as most college juniors. It has been said he's a once in five years kind of bat, a true run-producer. If you buy that, you don't pass him up...unless of course you can get a dynamic talent like Tim Beckham.

Round 2: Tim Murphy LHP UCLA (fresh power LH who may prove a steal with good development program)

Round 3: Cody Satterwaite RHP Ole Miss (power arm who may already be gone, but I really like his upside)

Round 4: Ryan Flaherty SS* Vanderbilt (solid stick; steady player who will probably move to 2B)

Hosmer will fit even with his demands because the next three are very signable for slot as far as I have been able to find out. Rounds 5-7 is where I would try to get atleast two guys who fell because of signabilty concerns and such and see if you can sign them for 2nd round money. We need to find 2-3 legit middle infield and 2-3 legit CF prospects in this draft.

I still say, if Beckham is there, I take him...if Beckham is gone I take Hosmer. That's right, I take him over Alvarez. I've been told Hosmer has a tremendous work ethic and love for the game, even in comparison to the other elite prospects he's played with and against the last two years. The kid impresses everyone that sees him with the way in which he goes about his business.

[Greg Pappas]

If Beckham, Alvarez and Matusz go in the first three, then I would take.......

Eric Hosmer 1B* with the fourth pick. Smoak would be safer and quicker to Baltimore, but I think Jordan is in on this kid and he's staying quiet about it. When people like Keith Law and such are saying we're going to take a college kid, I don't buy it. AM is the master of misinformation.

With the competition he's played against for the last two years, he's been scouted about as thoroughly as most college juniors. It has been said he's a once in five years kind of bat, a true run-producer. If you buy that, you don't pass him up...unless of course you can get a dynamic talent like Tim Beckham.

Round 2: Tim Murphy LHP UCLA (fresh power LH who may prove a steal with good development program)

Round 3: Cody Satterwaite RHP Ole Miss (power arm who may already be gone, but I really like his upside)

Round 4: Ryan Flaherty SS* Vanderbilt (solid stick; steady player who will probably move to 2B)

Hosmer will fit even with his demands because the next three are very signable for slot as far as I have been able to find out. Rounds 5-7 is where I would try to get atleast two guys who fell because of signabilty concerns and such and see if you can sign them for 2nd round money. We need to find 2-3 legit middle infield and 2-3 legit CF prospects in this draft.

I still say, if Beckham is there, I take him...if Beckham is gone I take Hosmer. That's right, I take him over Alvarez. I've been told Hosmer has a tremendous work ethic and love for the game, even in comparison to the other elite prospects he's played with and against the last two years. The kid impresses everyone that sees him with the way in which he goes about his business.

:clap3: We see Hosmer the same...special.

[Stotle]

If Beckham, Alvarez and Matusz go in the first three, then I would take.......

Eric Hosmer 1B* with the fourth pick. Smoak would be safer and quicker to Baltimore, but I think Jordan is in on this kid and he's staying quiet about it. When people like Keith Law and such are saying we're going to take a college kid, I don't buy it. AM is the master of misinformation.

With the competition he's played against for the last two years, he's been scouted about as thoroughly as most college juniors. It has been said he's a once in five years kind of bat, a true run-producer. If you buy that, you don't pass him up...unless of course you can get a dynamic talent like Tim Beckham.

Round 2: Tim Murphy LHP UCLA (fresh power LH who may prove a steal with good development program)

Round 3: Cody Satterwaite RHP Ole Miss (power arm who may already be gone, but I really like his upside)

Round 4: Ryan Flaherty SS* Vanderbilt (solid stick; steady player who will probably move to 2B)

Hosmer will fit even with his demands because the next three are very signable for slot as far as I have been able to find out. Rounds 5-7 is where I would try to get atleast two guys who fell because of signabilty concerns and such and see if you can sign them for 2nd round money. We need to find 2-3 legit middle infield and 2-3 legit CF prospects in this draft.

I still say, if Beckham is there, I take him...if Beckham is gone I take Hosmer. That's right, I take him over Alvarez. I've been told Hosmer has a tremendous work ethic and love for the game, even in comparison to the other elite prospects he's played with and against the last two years. The kid impresses everyone that sees him with the way in which he goes about his business.

The issue is, if he doesn't realize his 30+ power potential, and ends up in the 20-25 range, you've essentially paid $5.5mio or so and invested four years of MiL development for Sean Casey. I don't think that is wise with very talented, safer picks available at #4...

[Jammer7]

The issue is, if he doesn't realize his 30+ power potential, and ends up in the 20-25 range, you've essentially paid $5.5mio or so and invested four years of MiL development for Sean Casey. I don't think that is wise with very talented, safer picks available at #4...

Interesting, I never knew Sean to average even close to 20-25 home runs in a season....but I get your point. And I disagree. They are very different hitters. The player Hosmer is comped to a lot is Kotchman of LA, but with a better bat.

The same can be said for every player in the draft....if so and so doesn't reach their potential...or if so and so gets hurt...etc...There isn't a sure thing in this draft, not one of these players has really separated themselves from the top pack of 6-8 players really.

Don't let the fact that he is a HS 1B totally disuade you. This kid doesn't play in NJ or Northern VA like Brandon Snyder or Billy Rowell, he plays top competition all over the country year round. He grew up in south Florida playing ball all year. He is much much more advanced than Rowell and Snyder and it'll show quickly. He could pass them both and beat them to Baltimore, he's that good.

[Stotle]

Interesting, I never knew Sean to average even close to 20-25 home runs in a season....but I get your point. And I disagree. They are very different hitters. The player Hosmer is comped to a lot is Kotchman of LA, but with a better bat.

The same can be said for every player in the draft....if so and so doesn't reach their potential...or if so and so gets hurt...etc...There isn't a sure thing in this draft, not one of these players has really separated themselves from the top pack of 6-8 players really.

Don't let the fact that he is a HS 1B totally disuade you. This kid doesn't play in NJ or Northern VA like Brandon Snyder or Billy Rowell, he plays top competition all over the country year round. He grew up in south Florida playing ball all year. He is much much more advanced than Rowell and Snyder and it'll show quickly. He could pass them both and beat them to Baltimore, he's that good.

Never said he averaged that. I believe Casey hit 20 or more 3 times.

Not sure comparing a draftee to a MLer with less than 2 season's worth of games under his belt is useful.

Fact remains that you are paying $5.5mio or so and investing 3-4 years (I'll humor the three-years-to-the-majors crowd) for an elite power bat. He isn't giving you positional flexibility (though I think he should be tried in RF if he is really as good defensively as some have stated -- I haven't seen him in a game. If he doesn't hit 30 HR a season, will he necessarily carve out a useful role at the ML-level?

I agree he is a superior HS talent. I don't believe he is worth a #4 pick when one of T-Bex, Alvarez, Posey, Smoak and Matusz will be available. I'd rather sign a surer thing (Alvarez/Smoak), a more useful player (T-Bex/Posey), or a cheaper sign (Matusz). The cheaper sign allows you to overspend in later rounds; the surer/more useful players help ensure you will get some bang for your buck.

[odogs101]

Just my two cents but I think that the first 3-4 rds will be college heavy.

I see maybe one high schooler in the first three rounds.

That being said, I think when the draft is over Jordan will have drafted much heavier on the H.S. side.

If you look at last years draft we only signed two high schoolers. Third baseman Tyler Kolodny(16th) and RHP Justin Moore(26th).

We had just added the Gulf Coast team and drafted heavy on college players to help stock the lower levels.

The majority of the players on Aberdeen, Bluefield and the Gulf Coast teams are over the age of twenty-one already. I think that we are primed to add a lot of young, high upside players to the lower three teams and give those players the time needed to develop.

Hopefully after Avarez, a nice college arm, and then maybe a college infielder we will add more Kolodny's and Moore's to the system.

[Jammer7]

Never said he averaged that. I believe Casey hit 20 or more 3 times.

Not sure comparing a draftee to a MLer with less than 2 season's worth of games under his belt is useful.

Fact remains that you are paying $5.5mio or so and investing 3-4 years (I'll humor the three-years-to-the-majors crowd) for an elite power bat. He isn't giving you positional flexibility (though I think he should be tried in RF if he is really as good defensively as some have stated -- I haven't seen him in a game. If he doesn't hit 30 HR a season, will he necessarily carve out a useful role at the ML-level?

I agree he is a superior HS talent. I don't believe he is worth a #4 pick when one of T-Bex, Alvarez, Posey, Smoak and Matusz will be available. I'd rather sign a surer thing (Alvarez/Smoak), a more useful player (T-Bex/Posey), or a cheaper sign (Matusz). The cheaper sign allows you to overspend in later rounds; the surer/more useful players help ensure you will get some bang for your buck.

When you say someone is 30+ hr, or in this case 20-25, that is saying that they are going to average that or atleast be consistantly around there for their career. And then you call that Sean Casey like numbers. I don't know how else to take that, but if I misunderstand you...my bad.

The comp, however useful, isn't mine, it belongs to several scouts and some of the website gurus including the guys at Perfect Game and PG Crosscheckers. I suppose they're comping them at the HS level. I also said I'd take Tim Beckham over Hosmer, but not by much really.

Let me ask you this, if Justin Morneau was available this year at #4, would you take him knowing what you know about him now? Of course you would take him over Justin Smoak. Morneau was a HS 1B taken in the second round I believe, and he was from Canada. I'm just not as sold on Smoak or Gordon Beckham as many of you. If you can comp Hosmer to Sean Casey, I can comp Smoak to Jason Botts and Gordon Beckham to former Terp John McCurdy. Okay, so that's a little overboard. Smoak is obviously a really great prospect too, I just really believe Hosmer will be better five years from now. Gordon Beckham, well I just don't trust that swing. I think he has some holes and his bat looked a little slow to me. He may end up a very good player, but the #4 pick is a reach to me.

Hosmer is more risk, but not as much as you think, than Smoak. He's also more reward. Sometimes you need to take that risk to get the true superstar players. We really need that #4 hitter...badly. We need star power.

Obviously, we disagree. I respect your very informed opinion. We just have a different philosophy this year. Each of us has our share of people in the industry who share the same opinions we have. In five years, if you're right, I'll come back to Maryland and buy you a beer. If I'm right, I drink Smithwicks here in Orlando.

[Stotle]

When you say someone is 30+ hr, or in this case 20-25, that is saying that they are going to average that or atleast be consistantly around there for their career. And then you call that Sean Casey like numbers. I don't know how else to take that, but if I misunderstand you...my bad.

The comp, however useful, isn't mine, it belongs to several scouts and some of the website gurus including the guys at Perfect Game and PG Crosscheckers. I suppose they're comping them at the HS level. I also said I'd take Tim Beckham over Hosmer, but not by much really.

Let me ask you this, if Justin Morneau was available this year at #4, would you take him knowing what you know about him now? Of course you would take him over Justin Smoak. Morneau was a HS 1B taken in the second round I believe, and he was from Canada. I'm just not as sold on Smoak or Gordon Beckham as many of you. If you can comp Hosmer to Sean Casey, I can comp Smoak to Jason Botts and Gordon Beckham to former Terp John McCurdy. Okay, so that's a little overboard. Smoak is obviously a really great prospect too, I just really believe Hosmer will be better five years from now. Gordon Beckham, well I just don't trust that swing. I think he has some holes and his bat looked a little slow to me. He may end up a very good player, but the #4 pick is a reach to me.

Hosmer is more risk, but not as much as you think, than Smoak. He's also more reward. Sometimes you need to take that risk to get the true superstar players. We really need that #4 hitter...badly. We need star power.

Obviously, we disagree. I respect your very informed opinion. We just have a different philosophy this year. Each of us has our share of people in the industry who share the same opinions we have. In five years, if you're right, I'll come back to Maryland and buy you a beer. If I'm right, I drink Smithwicks here in Orlando.

Yeah, I understand the pro-Hosmer crowd. There's just much less room for error with a HS 1b than a HS SS or OF, let alone a HS 1b said to be demanding $7mio to sign (I know he'll likely get less). For what it's worth, I agree Hosmer is a very special HS talent -- I won't accept a beer if he doesn't pan out (I couldn't in good conscience celebrate his failure ) but I'll certainly send one your way when he's raking for the Rangers in '12...

[Jammer7]

Just found this recent article and thought I'd send it out to you guys. Interesting that they say that scouts would universally take Hosmer over Wieters...wow!!!! Big praise for Smoak too. I just wanted to show you guys that Greg and I are not the only ones crazy enough to think Hosmer is legit at #4.

Stotle, Rangers????? Man, I just had visions of Tex over the last 5-6 years. Painful thought.

Anyway, see the link.

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/04/11/draftbuzz1-2/

[rhall]

This thread is starting to fade, but I'll throw my 2 cents in...

1RD: Tim Beckham, SS, H.S. (GA)

2RD: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest

3RD: Brad Holt, RHSP, UNC Wilmington

4RD: Jay Austin, OF, H.S. (GA) .... could be a 5 tool player & and one of the fastest players in the draft.

5RD: Jaff Decker, OF, H.S. (AZ) .... I expect him to go much earlier, but he could be a difficult sign with what seems to be a strong commitment to Arizona State, and since he doesn't have that projectable body that scouts dream on, I wonder if he'll slide because scouts don't think he's worth fighting for. The kid can hit though.

[Stotle]

This thread is starting to fade, but I'll throw my 2 cents in...

1RD: Tim Beckham, SS, H.S. (GA)

2RD: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest

3RD: Brad Holt, RHSP, UNC Wilmington

4RD: Jay Austin, OF, H.S. (GA) .... could be a 5 tool player & and one of the fastest players in the draft.

5RD: Jaff Decker, OF, H.S. (AZ) .... I expect him to go much earlier, but he could be a difficult sign with what seems to be a strong commitment to Arizona State, and since he doesn't have that projectable body that scouts dream on, I wonder if he'll slide because scouts don't think he's worth fighting for. The kid can hit though.

I like this. I'd rather see another arm in there, maybe a Scott Gorgen (UC Irvine) or Brett Mooneyham (Buhach Colony HS (CA)). Like your top 3.

[rhall]

I like this. I'd rather see another arm in there, maybe a Scott Gorgen (UC Irvine) or Brett Mooneyham (Buhach Colony HS (CA)). Like your top 3.

If we're keeping the top 3, those guys would be solid 4th RD picks, if they're available. I think I'd take Gorgen. His lack of height doesn't concern me as much as Mooneyham's wildness, but Mooneyham is projectable I'll give you that.

EDIT: Ok, I just read a report that says that Gorgen's fastball often scrapes 90 but usually sits in the 86-88 range. I was under the impression that he usually sits in the 89-90 range. If that's true that his velo sits lower, I would definitely take Mooneyham's upside over Gorgen.