Poll: Matusz

[geschinger]

Generally, GMs don't insert themselves deeply into this process. They don't have the time to learn the ins and outs of the draftees -- that's why the team has a scouting department and a director. AMs proclivities shouldn't have a huge impact on whose drafted. I'm not saying he won't have input, but it won't play so large a role that it trumps whoever Jordan and the scouting department deem to be the best player. They'll present their "board" to AM, Angelos and whoever, and make their case. I can't see AM hijacking their pick if Matusz is 3rd/4th/5th on the list and their are a couple of people ahead of him available come 1-4.

I think it all depends on what kind of budget JJ is given. If he's given X amount of dollars does he want to use the vast majority on a tough sign #1 or spread it around and look for this years Arrieta type. Or is he given the best of both worlds - an unlimited budget. The size of the budget is where I think AMs proclivities will influence selections.

[Greg Pappas]

We can assume Posey, Alvarez and TBeckham will be gone at #4. IMO the O's will not go for a hs player. Too risky outside of TBec. the decision is between Matuzs, Smoak & G Bec. In JJ history, no first pick pitchers. See the video on Matz on mlb. scary delivery-injury wise. I beleive itis between G Bec and Smoak. Whoever can project better will be the choice.

Gregg, Who projects better? I think G Bec is a safer selection.

While it's possible that Posey, Alvarez and TBeck are all gone by pick #4, I wouldn't assume it outright. The Orioles have chosen a HS'er in two of the last three drafts (Snyder, Rowell), so it's safe to say that we're not anti-youth. FWIW... I think TBeck is riskier than Hosmer.

I have been in on Matusz all year, but feel that the emergence of Smoak and GBeck have the O's looking bat. Between Smoak and GBeck, Smoak is more established, but GBeck plays a more difficult and therefore valued position-SS. We are in more need for a SS than a 1B'man, there is no denying that, but at this point I'll stick with the player with a better overall history, I'd think Smoak by the slimmest of margins.

[Three Run Homer]

The O's need bats in the system, and while in principle we could trade surplus minor league arms to get bats, in practice very few teams are willing to trade major league ready position players for anything except impact major league players (the Delmon Young and Lastings Milledge trades being notable exceptions, and in any event probably motivated by character questions as much as anything else).

My sense also is that good college hitters tend to go very early in the draft, while good college pitchers are still available in later rounds. Garrett Olson was a supplemental first rounder; John Maine lasted until the 6th round; Jake Arietta lasted until the 5th round.

So if there's an impact college hitter available I think that's the direction the O's should go in. I think Gordon Beckham would be a reach, but it's likely that Alvarez, Posey or Smoak will be available, and that's who I'd take (in that order...Posey obviously would not remain at C but could convert to another position).

I'd be fine with Hosmer as well given his upside, as long as the O's don't give him a major league contract (I'm fine with giving him a big signing bonus, but not an artificially accelerated timetable to the majors).

[clapdiddy]

The O's need bats in the system, and while in principle we could trade surplus minor league arms to get bats, in practice very few teams are willing to trade major league ready position players for anything except impact major league players (the Delmon Young and Lastings Milledge trades being notable exceptions, and in any event probably motivated by character questions as much as anything else).

My sense also is that good college hitters tend to go very early in the draft, while good college pitchers are still available in later rounds. Garrett Olson was a supplemental first rounder; John Maine lasted until the 6th round; Jake Arietta lasted until the 5th round.

So if there's an impact college hitter available I think that's the direction the O's should go in. I think Gordon Beckham would be a reach, but it's likely that Alvarez, Posey or Smoak will be available, and that's who I'd take (in that order...Posey obviously would not remain at C but could convert to another position).

I'd be fine with Hosmer as well given his upside, as long as the O's don't give him a major league contract (I'm fine with giving him a big signing bonus, but not an artificially accelerated timetable to the majors).

Very nice post. I definitely would like to see us get a position player in the 4 slot. I'm open to any of T. Beckham, Smoak, Alvarez, Hosmer, or Posey being selected by us.

[NoVaO]

I've kept quiet on this, but I can't get really excited about Matusz. I did a write-up on him that I think people will find interesting that includes some video and mechanical analysis:

Brian Matusz scouting report

You have two above average to plus off-speed pitches, but a fastball that rates as about average (maybe a little above) and an upside that leans more toward the back end than the front end of the rotation...making him look more like a No. 3 starter. Given that he is a pitcher and we are stock full of them right now, we need to take the best position player on the board.

My vote is for Smoak and T. Becham if Alvarez is off the board. If we were to go with a pitcher, I would actually prefer Crow because he has the upside to be a number 1 starter though he is a riskier pick because of his mechanics.

But if we're concerned about the health of our first round pick, then pick the position player since they are what we need anyway.