Jump to content

How would you feel if the O's selected Matusz at #4?  

110 members have voted

  1. 1. How would you feel if the O's selected Matusz at #4?

    • Grrrrrrreat! You can't go wrong with a stud lefty.
    • Depends on who's left on the board. If Alvarez and/or T. Beckham are still there...
    • Okay. We better devote the rest of the draft to position talent though!
    • A frakkin' pitcher!? Don't we have enough of those in the minors already?


Recommended Posts

Almost every site I've checked has the O's selecting Matusz with the #4 pick. I also read somewhere that the O's have him at the top of their board.

I'm not convinced that Matusz will make it past the Pirates; however, if he does, how would you feel if he's the O's pick?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 34
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I went with GREAT! It would be nice to get one of the position prospects but if we can get close to a sure thing in Matusz, than we can trade our excess pitching for nearly major league ready prospects that we know are producing in AAA.

While I'd like to get Alvarez or T. Beckham, it would certainly be nice to say we have Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz all in our system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I went with GREAT! It would be nice to get one of the position prospects but if we can get close to a sure thing in Matusz, than we can trade our excess pitching for nearly major league ready prospects that we know are producing in AAA.

I went with "Okay...". Oddly enough, I really feel pretty strongly that we should take the best college position player available. That said, I counter-balance that thought with something Crazysilver alluded to.

The 4th overall pick is big, huge, a major part of the O's rebuilding efforts. But it's not the only method. And you don't solve all your problems with the #4 pick; you get just one player. So if they determine that Matusz is the way to go, I'll withhold judgement concerning their ability to acquire the position players and have fun cheering this guy on.

If they acquire the other players they need through some bold later round surprises (a la Arrieta), or by trading ML talent, or by trading MiL pitching talent, or eventually through free agency, or through the foreign market, or whatever else they can come up with, well that's fine by me too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I went with GREAT! It would be nice to get one of the position prospects but if we can get close to a sure thing in Matusz, than we can trade our excess pitching for nearly major league ready prospects that we know are producing in AAA.

As did I.

Love what Matusz brings to the table.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I went with "Depends..."

I really like Matusz, and I'll be a big fan of his if he ends up with the Orioles, but I would much rather have Pedro Alvarez or Tim Beckham. Both rate higher on my board and fit organizational needs better than Matusz (win-win). However, the O's may not have to make that decision as it is entirely possible, maybe even most likely, that both Alvarez and Beckham are gone by the 4th pick.

If Alvarez, T. Beckham and Posey go 1-3 in some order, I think I'd take Matusz. I'm tempted to say I would go with Eric Hosmer, but that depends on what it takes to sign him. I don't care too much about bonus money, but big league deals for HS'ers scare me. It puts too much pressure on the kid to develop fast and if he doesn't it could "stunt his growth", as he gets promoted before he's ready. Look to Adam Loewen for a good example of that - he wasn't a HS'er, but he wasn't a polished college lefty either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would be pleased with Matu - though I would prefer TBeck and Hosmer.

Lots of strong talent at the top of the board - that's my main source for optimism for the pick.

Matu is completely worthy of the pick, IMO. I'm not concerned about the relative lack of hitters in our system such that it would affect how I draft. Let's just keep adding talent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While I'd like to get Alvarez or T. Beckham, it would certainly be nice to say we have Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz all in our system.

Agreed. I would be mildly disappointed if Pedro and T-Bex were off the board and we passed on Smoak, but I'd be happy with Matusz if JJ thinks he's the best player available.

If we do draft Matusz, I think he'll move quickly through the organization. I project him to be pitching in the bigs in 2010.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno why, but I get the feeling that Alvarez is going to be there when we pick in the 4 spot...and I have a feeling we'll pass on him. I sure hope I'm wrong, because I'd love to see him, Wieters, Markakis, and Jones as our young foundation for years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You mean one of those 4 ;)

Are those your choices in order?

1) Beck

2) Alvarez

3) Smoak

4) Hosmer

I kind of look at these 4 in 2 groups:

Group 1 is Beck and Alvarez....I think TBeck is the class of the draft and even though he is a HSer, I would take him over Alvarez BUT I would be thrilled with Alvarez and if the O's took him over Beck(if both were available), i wouldn't complain at all.

Group 2 is Hosmer and Smoak...I think Hosmer has more upside but there is a bigger risk he doesn't sign and Smoak is a surer thing, so I take Smoak here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno why, but I get the feeling that Alvarez is going to be there when we pick in the 4 spot...and I have a feeling we'll pass on him. I sure hope I'm wrong, because I'd love to see him, Wieters, Markakis, and Jones as our young foundation for years.

If Alvarez is available, there is no way the Orioles will pass on him. He is the best player in the draft. After taking Wieters last year, you have to believe JJ has the power to take the top player.

If Pedro is on the board, he will be an Oriole.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Alvarez is available, there is no way the Orioles will pass on him. He is the best player in the draft. After taking Wieters last year, you have to believe JJ has the power to take the top player.

If Pedro is on the board, he will be an Oriole.

I'm a little nervous we're going to pass on the big guys. We heard a few rumours last year that AM wouldn't have drafted Weiters. I think Matusz will be the pick even if Alvarez or T Beck or left. Hope I'm wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • For every year of the Elias Era, I've written up a yearly Trade Bait thread in the offseason. This year is unique that I think we could be buyers, but overall, I believe Elias is going to try to mimic the Rays and Indians a bit in where they are always trying to be competitive while balancing the payroll.  I think Elias will continue to trade MLB pieces if he believes they have reached a peak value in terms of talent/salary, especially if he has his pipeline providing MLB ready talent to immediately replace a player. Just because a player is on here, doesn't mean I believe he will or should be traded. I'm just trying to think in terms of Elias. I went with Hot/Mild/Low in terms of likelihood of being traded Hot Anthony Santander - He's 28, hit a career high in HR last season, and he's probably at peak value. With two years left of control and arbitration pushing the salary up, Elias might be looking to deal.  Santander's potential production and salary numbers will still be more affordable and as productive than many of the Free Agent OFs.  If he stays with the O's, I believe his value is best as a DH as the O's were below league avg in corner OF value overall. Santander is one of the more likely 40 man pieces to be traded before the season starts in my opinion Mild Cedric Mullins - The CF Market could be active, but the options in Free Agency aren't awfully deep. Mullins didn't nearly match his 2021 output last year, but a 3.8 WAR is still very good. His defensive metrics were still good, as were his SB numbers. The problem is, I feel our overall OF depth is not that great and that Mullins still has a lot of value to the O's even if his salary takes a jump this year. However, Elias may be forced to consider the option of trading Mullins if it can bring back pieces that he places more value on in the long run. I think Elias also knows how valuable Mullins is to the foundation of the current starting 9, especially without an immediate replacement. Ramon Urias - 3.6 WAR this year is pretty solid. He's versatile, and I believe he's got 20 HR pop. I struggle with deciding if he's at peak value though. If its not now, it would probably be at the trade deadline this year. However, he's turning 29 this season and there's not a lot of room for error with judging his peak value at this point. The GG helps give him an extra boost in value heading into the offseason. I think he's traded to clear up the infield log jam that could be coming. If he stays, he will probably move to 2B where the O's were 2nd to last in the league in position value. If he can maintain his dWAR and improve upon his offensive production, he could have even more value heading into the trade deadline. Jorge Mateo - 3.4 WAR is pretty solid considering the lack of offensive production. I feel like Elias isn't pushing this as Mateo does have value as the starting SS, or he could be the replacement we need at 2B if we bring in a better SS like Correa or move Gunnar to SS. Elias probably only considers this trade if he is approached by another team that wants him as a low cost, controllable option. I feel the return could actually be solid; but I wonder if Elias is gambling a bit since he has so many solid MIF prospects on the cusp but not quite ready. He will begin the season at only age 27, so if Mateo can put up GG defensive numbers again, get his OPS up over .700, and continue to be among the league leaders in SBs, his value could sky rocket leading to a deadline trade, or event one in next year's offseason. Dillon Tate - Depending on how Elias adds to the Rotation, I could see Voth, Hall, and Wells all being additions to an already solid Bullpen. I think Tate is also approaching that peak value point as he will be 29 on May 1st, is coming off his best year, and he's entering into arbitration. He could be a very low cost add for a team needing a RH bullpen piece, especially if Elias thinks he can get something he likes in return or add Tate as part of a bigger trade. He could be an offseason trade or even a trade deadline deal. Low Austin Hays - I don't think Elias likes trading a player when he believes there is more peak value potential. If you look at Austin Hays' 2nd Half in 2021 and his 1st Half in 2022, he's an above average corner OF with 25 HRs and close to a .790 OPS. I feel Hays was injured in much of the 2nd half last season. Currently, I don't see a lot of value or other teams being interested unless they felt they could buy low. However, he's an OF which we need as the moment, but if he can get hot in the 1st Half, could be a trade candidate leading up to the trade deadline if Cowser is ready. Ryan Mountcastle - As far as WAR, he's averaged about 1.0 WAR per season in his 3 years. As much as it seemed that Ryan had a down year, he was actually more valuable in terms of WAR this season than in 2021 when he hit 33 HRs. He's still affordable, but with a career high 1.3 WAR, Jose Abreu and his 4.2 WAR shows how big a jump we could take offensively with a top tier 1B; even a mid tier 1B like Josh Bell was 3.0 WAR last year. However, the depth in FA 1B dive bombs after that. I don't see Elias trading below peak, but perhaps Elias thinks this is Mountcastle's peak and he adds him to part of a bigger trade before the season starts. If he does begin the season at 1B, much like Hays, he could be moved if he can put together a decent 1st half, much like Mancini did. Austin Voth - Also entering arbitration and turns 31 this season. I think we need him now for SP depth, and he could become a good BP piece if Elias acquires more SP. Voth could end up not only being pushed out of the rotation, but also expendable based on Bullpen depth. He might be a good target for a team looking for affordable back of the rotation options or a bullpen piece. Prospect Pool Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Sam Basallo, Coby Mayo, Cesar Prieto, Darrell Hernaiz, Frederick Bencosme This is the 1st year of looking into potential trades where I feel our prospects are on the table for acquiring MLB ready talent. I don't see Elias trading Pitching or OF prospects as we need to build our depth there. However, Hall, Cowser, Kjerstad, and others could be possibilities.
    • Take Roughned Odor’s 472 PA at .275 OBP and give them to Gunnar Henderson (.348). Take Tyler Nevin’s 184 PA at .299 OBP and give them to Terrin Vavra (.340). Take 90 of Robinson Chirinos’ 220 PA at .265 OBP and give them to Adley Rutschman (.362).   Assume a new backup C will be just as inept as Chirinos, but won’t be starting for the first 1/4 of the season like Chirinos was. Those three relatively simple moves add about 8 points to the team OBP, moving them from slightly below average to slightly above average.   Anything we do from there is gravy.   Of course, you do have to replace Trey Mancini’s 401 PA at .347 OBP.     
    • Trade Mullins for a starter and sign Kevin Kiermaier to platoon with McKenna for a year or two until a better option comes along. Bada bing, bada boom.
    • Frobby!  The excitement comes from the athleticism and the incredible plays they are able to pull off.  I find it somewhat similar to baseball in that respect.  The same beauty and athletic art it takes from Brooks, Manny, Omar, Ozzie to make all those incredible defensive plays is on full display throughout a soccer match.  That plus the level of fitness it takes to compete and how the fitness levels expose themselves in the last 15 minutes of each game is thrilling (to me at least :).  It took me a while to get into it as well, but once you get the bug there is no going back.  It truly is a beautiful game to watch unfold.    The Iran game is massive.  One of biggest games ever for our Country.  It is going to be extremely exciting.  Iran is a very good team so we cannot take them lightly.  With that said, I like our chances.  I think the boys will have a little swagger in their step after the draw against England. 
    • Only if the O's have an equal or better replacement in CF.  The O's are trying to win now.  They should not create holes.
    • The point of the last half decade of tanking was to build a potent, sustainable talent pipeline, and the early results look pretty good, at least on the position player side of things. Blocking all of that young talent with expensive, mid-tier free agents is antithetical to what Elias is building here.
    • I’m not disagreeing on Abreu, I just think Elias is in on his guy. Also, if Elias is truly all In on competing he won’t rely on 2-3 of these prospects right now beyond Adley and Gunnar to be immediate impact guys. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...