Trading Manny Machado - Buster Olney Article

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Definitely. Though of course the Sox are rebuilding and wouldn't trade the guys they just got.

With the Yankees  - think they would do something like Manny for Torres, Frazier/Judge, and Sheffield? Maye get back Headley (ugh) or Didi so the Yanks can plug Manny in right away? 

Would you make that trade if you were the O's? I think I might.

Of course I would (Frazier please).

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

This is a great find. It narrows it down to teams that have two top-10 prospects and a third who's an organizational top 10. Not sure if anyone even has a farm team that good! Might have to wing a multi-team deal here.

There is an assumption there, which is that Manny's trade value is as high as Cabrera's was.    While Manny actually has accumulated more WAR than Cabrera had by age 24 (24.4 to 18.2), Cabrera was the superior offensive player (20.2 oWAR to 15.9), and I  think that teams tend to value the offensive side of the equation more heavily than the WAR formula does.    But Manny certainly would bring a big package in return.

[Yardball85]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course I would (Frazier please).

Yep, I definitely prefer Frazier as well. 

[wildbillhiccup]

5 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Definitely. Though of course the Sox are rebuilding and wouldn't trade the guys they just got.

With the Yankees  - think they would do something like Manny for Torres, Frazier/Judge, and Sheffield? Maye get back Headley (ugh) or Didi so the Yanks can plug Manny in right away? 

Would you make that trade if you were the O's? I think I might.

It's a moot point because Angelos would never sign off on a trade with the Yankees. The three teams that come to mind, that might have the pieces to make it work are: 

Texas - Profar, Mazara, etc. 

Cubs -Russell, Contreras, Schwarber, etc. 

Dodgers - Bellinger, De Leon, etc.

Also, Pittsburgh would be an interesting sleeper with Meadows, Glasnow, etc. 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There is an assumption there, which is that Manny's trade value is as high as Cabrera's was.    While Manny actually has accumulated more WAR than Cabrera had by age 24 (24.4 to 18.2), Cabrera was the superior offensive player (20.2 oWAR to 15.9), and I  think that teams tend to value the offensive side of the equation more heavily than the WAR formula does.    But Manny certainly would bring a big package in return.

You're completely overlooking position depth. No team legitimately thought Cabrera could stick at 3b long term. Manny can play either 3b or SS. That type of a offensive production at a middle infield slot is rare and extremely valuable. It gives you much more flexibility when you try to round out the rest of your roster. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You're completely overlooking position depth. No team legitimately thought Cabrera could stick at 3b long term. Manny can play either 3b or SS. That type of a offensive production at a middle infield slot is rare and extremely valuable. It gives you much more flexibility when you try to round out the rest of your roster. 

I'm not overlooking it.    I absolutely think a team would consider Cabrera's defensive deficiencies and Manny's defensive excellence/flexibility in evaluating a trade.    But I still don't think it's a given that Manny's trade value would be equal to what Cabrera's was.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I'm not overlooking it.    I absolutely think a team would consider Cabrera's defensive deficiencies and Manny's defensive excellence/flexibility in evaluating a trade.    But I still don't think it's a given that Manny's trade value would be equal to what Cabrera's was.

You can think all you want, but it's true. Based on the facts. Heck, you can even use the current market to further the argument. Look what the Nationals gave up for Eaton. And Eaton isn't half the player that Manny is. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You can think all you want, but it's true. Based on the facts. Heck, you can even use the current market to further the argument. Look what the Nationals gave up for Eaton. And Eaton isn't half the player that Manny is. 

Nothing is a fact until Manny's on the block and we get a reliable report of what's been offered.    Until then, it's all just opinion.    

[Bradysburns]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

White Sox.

Yankees?

The White Sox would be a perfect trading partner for the Orioles. But they appear to be in sell mode - they're trading away assets.

Looking at the top 100 prospects, the Pirates seem to have a lot of nice pieces.

How about Manny (maybe with one more piece) for:

- Tyler Glasnow (RHP): Absolute beast. 6'8" and 220 pounds of sheer scariness... with some control issues.

- Austin Meadows (OF): Could be our left fielder of the future.

- Josh Bell (1B/DH): Could flip him for another piece at the MLB or farm level... OR... just put him at DH right now and have Mancini for some superb depth

- Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B): raw prospect

--

I think I'd make that trade.

[Bradysburns]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

There is an assumption there, which is that Manny's trade value is as high as Cabrera's was.    While Manny actually has accumulated more WAR than Cabrera had by age 24 (24.4 to 18.2), Cabrera was the superior offensive player (20.2 oWAR to 15.9), and I  think that teams tend to value the offensive side of the equation more heavily than the WAR formula does.    But Manny certainly would bring a big package in return.

Right, what you're saying makes sense. But Manny is possibly the best defensive player in the LEAGUE. He's other-worldly on defense. If he was just good, I might agree with you more. But he's a freak show out there. And he can play short with ease, too. I think all of that gives him special status. And we haven't even seen his best yet. So I would insist on a Cabrera-like package (3 best prospects in your system, plus)... If not, wait.

[TradeAngelos]

26 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

Right, what you're saying makes sense. But Manny is possibly the best defensive player in the LEAGUE. He's other-worldly on defense. If he was just good, I might agree with you more. But he's a freak show out there. And he can play short with ease, too. I think all of that gives him special status. And we haven't even seen his best yet. So I would insist on a Cabrera-like package (3 best prospects in your system, plus)... If not, wait.

It really makes no sense. Well if we eliminate defense....wait what? Manny is the more valuable player in every way possible, starting with the fact he has 2 yrs left under control vs only 1 for Cabrera when he was dealt. Also Cabrera accumulated his war in first 5 years (a year older BTW) in 760 games, while Manny did it in only 608. A full season difference. So throw another 5-6 WAR onto Manny's total if we really want to be fair, and he smashes Miguel because as you said......he is one pf the greatest defenders in the game to go along with all his other skills. But I guess we can keep trying to rationalize something that makes no sense any way you slice it, because we know deep down our organization aint gonna write that check.  

[backwardsk]

54 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

The White Sox would be a perfect trading partner for the Orioles. But they appear to be in sell mode - they're trading away assets.

Looking at the top 100 prospects, the Pirates seem to have a lot of nice pieces.

How about Manny (maybe with one more piece) for:

- Tyler Glasnow (RHP): Absolute beast. 6'8" and 220 pounds of sheer scariness... with some control issues.

- Austin Meadows (OF): Could be our left fielder of the future.

- Josh Bell (1B/DH): Could flip him for another piece at the MLB or farm level... OR... just put him at DH right now and have Mancini for some superb depth

- Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B): raw prospect

--

I think I'd make that trade.

Sure.  But why would Pittsburgh?  Their only way to be competitive is to have an abundance of cost controlled stars.  

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You can think all you want, but it's true. Based on the facts. Heck, you can even use the current market to further the argument. Look what the Nationals gave up for Eaton. And Eaton isn't half the player that Manny is. 

So let's say Washington didn't make that trade and had those prospects to give up.  Yes, Machado is better than Eaton.  But he's around for 5 years very cheaply compared to two years of Machado.  No way could they extend Manny and Harper.

So the Nationals give up those three and, say, Robles.  What else can they add to make it worthwhile?

[Bradysburns]

29 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

It really makes no sense. Well if we eliminate defense....wait what? Manny is the more valuable player in every way possible, starting with the fact he has 2 yrs left under control vs only 1 for Cabrera when he was dealt. Also Cabrera accumulated his war in first 5 years (a year older BTW) in 760 games, while Manny did it in only 608. A full season difference. So throw another 5-6 WAR onto Manny's total if we really want to be fair, and he smashes Miguel because as you said......he is one pf the greatest defenders in the game to go along with all his other skills. But I guess we can keep trying to rationalize something that makes no sense any way you slice it, because we know deep down our organization aint gonna write that check.  

Good info there - wow. Honestly, I didn't realize how elite Manny is by those measures. And the extra year of control is extremely valuable as well. Split the difference between what he'll make in arbitration and what he could make on the open market over the next two years. The value of Manny to your team (say, over his true market value) could equate to $60 million or more. If he gets $40/year as some suggest... and let's say he makes $10 in arbitration (is that possible?)... you're still saving $30 million per year on his contract over the next two seasons. It would be hard to create a better trade chip.

[Bradysburns]

22 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Sure.  But why would Pittsburgh?  Their only way to be competitive is to have an abundance of cost controlled stars.  

Good point - but this would give them a cost-controlled star for the next two years. The guys we'd be getting back are not stars - yet. Although Kang certainly has some offensive promise, so that might make them a bit less inclined to Machado. Who would you see as a possibility? I guess the perfect trade partner would be a team that's already very good... and with a great cache of top-tier prospects who are blocked by MLB players...