What's the high level plan for 2017-2018 (or what SHOULD it be?)

[Aristotelian]

46 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

They are going to try and win, now, regardless of how long they have on their contract left.

 

 

1 minute ago, esmd said:

I agree that's what they should be doing, but they don't seem to be making much of an effort to go about it.  Right now this team is worse then last year.  Even if they brought Trumbo and Alvarez back, it's a push, and that isn't enough to get it done, IMO.  They've got to get better, and I'm not sure how they really do that, short of signing EE to DH and trading Brach and several prospects for JD Martinez.  Now THAT would be an improved team from last year, one that could realistically challenge Boston.  Unfortunately we all know that's just not going to happen.  *sigh*

Both are true. Their MO since 2012 has been to try to compete with value signings, sacrificing draft picks and B/C prospects if necessary, but only up to a point. They will stay under the luxury tax and they will keep their elite prospects. While they have made sacrifices to be competitive, they have never gone truly "all in". I don't see any reason to expect them to shift radically, except to the extent that their contracts expiring may tweak their calculus next year. 

[esmd]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

 

Both are true. Their MO since 2012 has been to try to compete with value signings, sacrificing draft picks and B/C prospects if necessary, but only up to a point. They will stay under the luxury tax and they will keep their elite prospects. While they have made sacrifices to be competitive, they have never gone truly "all in". I don't see any reason to expect them to shift radically, except to the extent that their contracts expiring may tweak their calculus next year. 

And that's the key right there.  They have to know they aren't going to sign Manny.  Tillman and Britton may be out of their price range too.  Same with Jones.  If there was ever a time to go all-in, it's RIGHT NOW.  I dunno, I just don't get it.

[Redskins Rick]

39 minutes ago, esmd said:

I agree that's what they should be doing, but they don't seem to be making much of an effort to go about it.  Right now this team is worse then last year.  Even if they brought Trumbo and Alvarez back, it's a push, and that isn't enough to get it done, IMO.  They've got to get better, and I'm not sure how they really do that, short of signing EE to DH and trading Brach and several prospects for JD Martinez.  Now THAT would be an improved team from last year, one that could realistically challenge Boston.  Unfortunately we all know that's just not going to happen.  *sigh*

From my viewpoint.

Every single offseason, fans in OH and outside of OH, get upset that DD is not doing his job and not making the "right:" moves.

But, clearly, he does know something, looking over the past 5 seasons, two trips ALDS, and 1 ALCS might not be the world series, but it beats the alternative.

 

[esmd]

Fair enough, but at this point, right now, they've not done anything to get better.  With the pending FAs they have, they either need to go for broke now or start making plans to trade assets and rebuild.  I just don't see any scenario where they resign Manny, let alone Tillman, Britton, Jones, etc.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, esmd said:

Fair enough, but at this point, right now, they've not done anything to get better.  With the pending FAs they have, they either need to go for broke now or start making plans to trade assets and rebuild.  I just don't see any scenario where they resign Manny, let alone Tillman, Britton, Jones, etc.

I don't think they have the ability to "go for broke".  How are they going to pull off a move that is comparable to the Red Sox trading for Sale for instance?

[esmd]

Trade Brach and any prospect they can for a RFer and sign EE.  That would be a go for broke move.  Even if you have the trade Brach and 3 or 4 of their top prospects.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

Trade Brach and any prospect they can for a RFer and sign EE.  That would be a go for broke move.  Even if you have the trade Brach and 3 or 4 of their top prospects.

So by go for broke you mean trade marginal prospects for incremental gains.

Doesn't quite compare with adding a Sale or an Eaton.

[esmd]

You don't think signing EE and trading for JD Martinez would make this team a WS contender?

LF Kim/Rickard

RF Martinez

3B Machado

DH Encarnacion

1B Davis

CF Jones

2B Schoop

C Castillo

SS Hardy

That would be a pretty darned good lineup, one that could give those starters in Boston a run for their money.  Obviously they would need Tillman to repeat his 2016, and Bundy and Gausman to take the next steps, but yes, I would consider that going all in.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, esmd said:

You don't think signing EE and trading for JD Martinez would make this team a WS contender?

LF Kim/Rickard

RF Martinez

3B Machado

DH Encarnacion

1B Davis

CF Jones

2B Schoop

C Castillo

SS Hardy

That would be a pretty darned good lineup, one that could give those starters in Boston a run for their money.  Obviously they would need Tillman to repeat his 2016, and Bundy and Gausman to take the next steps, but yes, I would consider that going all in.

Not really, not after you remove Brach from the equation.

It would be a team that might get into the playoffs if things broke right and if things broke right for a few weeks in a row could win it.

I wouldn't call them a contender.

Of course you are assuming that any package of Oriole farm hands could bring in Martinez.  That isn't something I agree with.

[esmd]

I'll disagree with the first part of your post.  That's clearly a better team than last year, IMO, which won a WC.  Is it enough to win a WS?  Maybe not, but they'd be a contender IMO.  Losing Brach would hurt, but Britton, a presumably healthy O'Day, Givens, and co. would be okay in the 'pen, IMO.  Especially if they re-sign Hunter and/or Hernandez.

As to the later, sure, I agree it would not be easy to get Martinez.  But even though our system isn't great, I'd like to think Brach plus 3 or 4 of our top 10 prospects would interest them.  It would clean out our farm system, but the assumption is you're going to replentish it before the end of 2018 when you have a fire sale.

I'm not saying I'm 100% on board with this option, just that it's something to consider.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, esmd said:

I'll disagree with the first part of your post.  That's clearly a better team than last year, IMO, which won a WC.  Is it enough to win a WS?  Maybe not, but they'd be a contender IMO.  Losing Brach would hurt, but Britton, a presumably healthy O'Day, Givens, and co. would be okay in the 'pen, IMO.  Especially if they re-sign Hunter and/or Hernandez.

As to the later, sure, I agree it would not be easy to get Martinez.  But even though our system isn't great, I'd like to think Brach plus 3 or 4 of our top 10 prospects would interest them.  It would clean out our farm system, but the assumption is you're going to replentish it before the end of 2018 when you have a fire sale.

I'm not saying I'm 100% on board with this option, just that it's something to consider.

I don't think it is clearly a better team since you don't have Wieters and Jones, Davis, Hardy are all another year older.  I don't think it is close to a lock that Tillman, Gausman and Bundy stay as healthy next year as they did this last year.

That is going to be an old group of everyday players.

[esmd]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it is clearly a better team since you don't have Wieters and Jones, Davis, Hardy are all another year older.  I don't think it is close to a lock that Tillman, Gausman and Bundy stay as healthy next year as they did this last year.

That is going to be an old group of everyday players.

So then what are you advocating?  Because IMO unless DD has something in the works that can clearly make this team better than it was last year, then it's all just a waste of time as they're just going to be a fringe WC contender at best.  They might as well have the fire sale now and trade Tillman, Britton, Machado, Jones, and possibly Hardy to restock the farm system and get some MLB ready prospects that hopefully turn into something.  Is that what you think they should do?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

So then what are you advocating?  Because IMO unless DD has something in the works that can clearly make this team better than it was last year, then it's all just a waste of time as they're just going to be a fringe WC contender at best.  They might as well have the fire sale now and trade Tillman, Britton, Machado, Jones, and possibly Hardy to restock the farm system and get some MLB ready prospects that hopefully turn into something.  Is that what you think they should do?

It was too late for my plan the second they signed Davis.

At this point I would minimize multi-year commitments to anyone not named Machado and save the draft pick.  Roll with what we got and sell or buy at the deadline as needed.

[esmd]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

It was too late for my plan the second they signed Davis.

At this point I would minimize multi-year commitments to anyone not named Machado and save the draft pick.  Roll with what we got and sell or buy at the deadline as needed.

So are you trading Tillman at the deadline or letting him leave as a FA?  I assume you're not trying to extend him based on your comment about minimizing multi-year commitments.  What would you do about Machado, Britton, and Jones?  I presume you don't think the O's can re-sign them, so do you move them this summer, or next offseason?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, esmd said:

So are you trading Tillman at the deadline or letting him leave as a FA?  I assume you're not trying to extend him based on your comment about minimizing multi-year commitments.  What would you do about Machado, Britton, and Jones?  I presume you don't think the O's can re-sign them, so do you move them this summer, or next offseason?

Die is already cast for this season.  If the team isn't competitive I would be open to trading all four.

For the record I do think they can resign Jones I am just not that interested.