What to do about Adam Jones pending free agency

[billw76]

I think the trade deadline or next off season is where a lot of decisions need to be made about Jones, Machado, Britton and Brach. They will all be FA after 2018.

The team needs to start thinking about re-tooling or rebuilding the roster at some point in the near future, and those four will be the key to speeding up that process IMO. Would I like for all of them to be career Orioles, absolutely, but I think we all know that it's probably not possible financially.

Starting next off-season the comp pick for a QO isn't worth keeping them and letting them walk. If this team isn't in contention at the trade deadline I think DD needs to be pro active and start the process by maximizing their trade values. If they just walk, I think were gonna be looking at something similar to the 14 years of losing because there are no impact players in the minors right now to help out a whole lot.

[Frobby]

Just now, billw76 said:

I think the trade deadline or next off season is where a lot of decisions need to be made about Jones, Machado, Britton and Brach. They will all be FA after 2018.

The team needs to start thinking about re-tooling or rebuilding the roster at some point in the near future, and those four will be the key to speeding up that process IMO. Would I like for all of them to be career Orioles, absolutely, but I think we all know that it's probably not possible financially.

Starting next off-season the comp pick for a QO isn't worth keeping them and letting them walk. If this team isn't in contention at the trade deadline I think DD needs to be pro active and start the process by maximizing their trade values. If they just walk, I think were gonna be looking at something similar to the 14 years of losing because there are no impact players in the minors right now to help out a whole lot.

The compensation for a player receiving a QO remains the same under the new CBA.   It's the draft pick taken from the signing team that is lower.    That means players getting a QO are more likely to be signed by another team, so the chances of the QO being accepted will go down and the chances of getting a supplemental first round pick will go up.

 

[billw76]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The compensation for a player receiving a QO remains the same under the new CBA.   It's the draft pick taken from the signing team that is lower.    That means players getting a QO are more likely to be signed by another team, so the chances of the QO being accepted will go down and the chances of getting a supplemental first round pick will go up.

 

Thanks for clarifying that Frobby, I thought it was a 3rd rounder or lower for losing the QO player also.

Either way, I don't think letting them walk is the smart thing to do. DD needs to speed up the rebuild process if were not in contention. I know prospects are never a sure thing, but i'd rather have the haul we could get from trades than a few picks from the QO's.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, billw76 said:

Thanks for clarifying that Frobby, I thought it was a 3rd rounder or lower for losing the QO player also.

Either way, I don't think letting them walk is the smart thing to do. DD needs to speed up the rebuild process if were not in contention. I know prospects are never a sure thing, but i'd rather have the haul we could get from trades than a few picks from the QO's.

I agree -- if we're not in contention.   

[billw76]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree -- if we're not in contention.   

Hopefully we are in contention, I don't like losing, saw enough of that.

[weams]

2 hours ago, billw76 said:

Hopefully we are in contention, I don't like losing, saw enough of that.

With you. Don't want to ever have that loser, trader, mindset again. I only want to trade poor players. For better younger ones. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

With you. Don't want to ever have that loser, trader, mindset again. I only want to trade poor players. For better younger ones. 

It's not a matter of having a loser mindset.    It's a matter of having a non-contending team.    If we get to the point where we have one, we aren't going to get better by hanging on too long to players with expiring contracts.    But we're not there.  

[ArtVanDelay]

Davis money or more? Not even close.

He'll probably get something like 3/60 if he plays well in 2017 and 18. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It's not a matter of having a loser mindset.    It's a matter of having a non-contending team.    If we get to the point where we have one, we aren't going to get better by hanging on too long to players with expiring contracts.    But we're not there.  

I think the Orioles have shown how to win with sub optimum rosters. And less than stellar processes.  Based on a focus on winning. Like it or not. 

So I do think it is a winning mind set. On this we disagree. 

[weams]

Just now, birdwatcher55 said:

I would let him walk if Hays is ready.

Hays is a child who may never get out of A ball. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

I think the Orioles have shown how to win with sub optimum rosters. And less than stellar processes.  Based on a focus on winning. Like it or not. 

So I do think it is a winning mind set. On this we disagree. 

I'm not saying there's no such thing as a winning mindset.   I'm just saying that if a day comes when the team is not a contender, the mindset will have to be, "what's the best way to get back to winning?"   And the answer to that may be trading some good players while they still have a high trade value.   We saw what happened in 1998-2000 when management waited too long to acknowledge that they had an aging, losing team.    

[Moondoggie]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm not saying there's no such thing as a winning mindset.   I'm just saying that if a day comes when the team is not a contender, the mindset will have to be, "what's the best way to get back to winning?"   And the answer to that may be trading some good players while they still have a high trade value.   We saw what happened in 1998-2000 when management waited too long to acknowledge that they had an aging, losing team.    

I still think they missed an opportunity by not trading Davis and Chen before the 2015 deadline when they had less than a 10 percent chance of even a wild card spot. If they don't extend Manny this offseason, I don't think it's going to happen. So if they find themselves in a similar (or worse) position this summer, I think they need to start fielding offers on Manny, Adam, Tillman, Britton and, if anyone will take them, Davis and O'Day. They just can't afford to let these guys go for nothing more than comp picks. If they do, we may be in for another sustained period of losing.

But, of course, Duquette's contract runs out at the same time as Manny's, Britton's and Adam's, so he doesn't really have to worry about it.

[mdbdotcom]

With Machado, Buck and Duquette also slated to leave after 2018, I'm not sure how big a story AJ will be.

[billw76]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm not saying there's no such thing as a winning mindset.   I'm just saying that if a day comes when the team is not a contender, the mindset will have to be, "what's the best way to get back to winning?"   And the answer to that may be trading some good players while they still have a high trade value.   We saw what happened in 1998-2000 when management waited too long to acknowledge that they had an aging, losing team.    

I think that's kind of how I'm looking at it too. I want to have a winning team, but at the same time I want the front office to be able to recognize when it may be the right time to go in a different direction.

The farm system currently doesn't have the talent to turn things around very quickly, at least IMO. I think we're better now than 98, but not where I'd like to be. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

I still think they missed an opportunity by not trading Davis and Chen before the 2015 deadline when they had less than a 10 percent chance of even a wild card spot. If they don't extend Manny this offseason, I don't think it's going to happen. So if they find themselves in a similar (or worse) position this summer, I think they need to start fielding offers on Manny, Adam, Tillman, Britton and, if anyone will take them, Davis and O'Day. They just can't afford to let these guys go for nothing more than comp picks. If they do, we may be in for another sustained period of losing.

But, of course, Duquette's contract runs out at the same time as Manny's, Britton's and Adam's, so he doesn't really have to worry about it.

Dan faced a tough decision at the 2015 trade deadline.   On July 29, we won our 5th game in a row and  were 1 game out of the wild card.   We weren't that good, but the opportunity was there.   We were still only a half-game out of the wild card on August 19.    People forget this.   

I'm certainly not saying we were in the catbird's seat.   Everyone knew we had a tough remaining schedule.    But it wasn't obvious we were out of it, and I'm not surprised Dan let his team take a shot.   I just wish he hadn't made the Parra trade.