What to do about Adam Jones pending free agency

[weams]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm not saying there's no such thing as a winning mindset.   I'm just saying that if a day comes when the team is not a contender, the mindset will have to be, "what's the best way to get back to winning?"   And the answer to that may be trading some good players while they still have a high trade value.   We saw what happened in 1998-2000 when management waited too long to acknowledge that they had an aging, losing team.    

I agree. If despite all efforts to win as many games as possible, July 30th comes some season with the Orioles 30 games out of a playoff spot, I think it would be "malpractice" not to trade for youth and improvement. Of course at that point both our current GM and Manager would have been let go and a new selling guy would handle the tear down. 

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm certainly not saying we were in the catbird's seat.   Everyone knew we had a tough remaining schedule.    But it wasn't obvious we were out of it, and I'm not surprised Dan let his team take a shot.   I just wish he hadn't made the Parra trade.   

I think there was evidence that Parra was not going to move the needle. I do think that is all he could get for the money available unfortunately. Yes, I would have been good for an all in strategy. Just not a middling attempt. That may have been all the money he was able spend after having been courted by the Blue Jays.  Which was tampering no matter what I hear someone else say. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, weams said:

I think there was evidence that Parra was not going to move the needle. I do think that is all he could get for the money available unfortunately. Yes, I would have been good for an all in strategy. Just not a middling attempt. That may have been all the money he was able spend after having been courted by the Blue Jays.  Which was tampering no matter what I hear someone else say. 

In December 2014, Dan had his dalliance with the Blue Jays.   From November 2014 - October 2015, almost every decision Dan made for the Orioles turned out wrong.    Some people see cause and effect; I don't.  

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In December 2014, Dan had his dalliance with the Blue Jays.   From November 2014 - October 2015, almost every decision Dan made for the Orioles turned out wrong.    Some people see cause and effect; I don't.  

About the time that Big Ed went wild on the rules of engagement, Dan had essentially traded Brian Matusz for Travis Snyder. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, weams said:

I agree. If despite all efforts to win as many games as possible, July 30th comes some season with the Orioles 30 games out of a playoff spot, I think it would be "malpractice" not to trade for youth and improvement. Of course at that point both our current GM and Manager would have been let go and a new selling guy would handle the tear down. 

Where's the line between 1 game out and 30, where trades should be considered?    I think it depends a little on how high the WC bar is that year, and how many teams are between us and the 2nd WC.   But let's say we're 48-52 and 6 games out of the WC.    That would be enough for me to pull the trigger, if the return was good.   

Hopefully we won't be in that position.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, jabba72 said:

He could move to the corner unless the O's have those positions filled by 2018. I doubt he'll be a strength in CF at 34 years old. He could sign a one year deal or something but I doubt he'll get a 3 year contract. Jones isnt really as pertinent as Manny or Britton for 2018.  

Or O'Day apparently.

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

Where's the line between 1 game out and 30, where trades should be considered?    I think it depends a little on how high the WC bar is that year, and how many teams are between us and the 2nd WC.   But let's say we're 48-52 and 6 games out of the WC.    That would be enough for me to pull the trigger, if the return was good.   

Hopefully we won't be in that position.  

The Royals beat us after having been about 8 games out at that point. The Blue Jays were hovering four games about .500 in July. 

[Moondoggie]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Dan faced a tough decision at the 2015 trade deadline.   On July 29, we won our 5th game in a row and  were 1 game out of the wild card.   We weren't that good, but the opportunity was there.   We were still only a half-game out of the wild card on August 19.    People forget this.   

I'm certainly not saying we were in the catbird's seat.   Everyone knew we had a tough remaining schedule.    But it wasn't obvious we were out of it, and I'm not surprised Dan let his team take a shot.   I just wish he hadn't made the Parra trade.   

If you look at the daily tracking playoff odds graph from Fangraphs/Baseball Prospectus, the odds on July 24 -- a week before the deadline -- were 12.7 percent for the Orioles to even make a wildcard spot. I'm sure all the clubs track these things themselves or at least have access to them. Yes, they had crawled back to a 35 percent chance by Aug. 17 before falling off a cliff (0.5 percent on Sept. 1), but the decisions were being made when they weren't in a good spot. I've always likened it to trying to draw to an inside straight. Had the Orioles had a strong farm system with a number of guys on the verge of stepping in -- the Red Sox farm system, for instance -- I could justify how they handled it. But I will always see it as a missed opportunity. Even in the off chance that they had squeaked out a wild card spot, it's unlikely that team could have gone anywhere.

And, just to add, the other clubs the Orioles were competing with were making deals to add significant players (Toronto, for instance, added Tulowitzki and Price). The Orioles didn't really have the resources to make the moves that would have been required to keep up.

[kelsey59]

58 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

With Machado, Buck and Duquette also slated to leave after 2018, I'm not sure how big a story AJ will be.

No intent to highjack the tread, but why do people think Buck will be leaving in 2018?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, kelsey59 said:

No intent to highjack the tread, but why do people think Buck will be leaving in 2018?

His contract is up.

[Moondoggie]

3 minutes ago, kelsey59 said:

No intent to highjack the tread, but why do people think Buck will be leaving in 2018?

He'll be 63 years old by the time the 2019 season starts. With Manny, Britton and Adam likely leaving and a farm system that doesn't at the moment seem capable of restocking, I doubt he would want to take on the major rebuilding project for which the Orioles appear destined.

[weams]

29 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

If you look at the daily tracking playoff odds graph from Fangraphs/Baseball Prospectus, the odds on July 24 -- a week before the deadline -- were 12.7 percent for the Orioles to even make a wildcard spot. I'm sure all the clubs track these things themselves or at least have access to them. Yes, they had crawled back to a 35 percent chance by Aug. 17 before falling off a cliff (0.5 percent on Sept. 1), but the decisions were being made when they weren't in a good spot. I've always likened it to trying to draw to an inside straight. Had the Orioles had a strong farm system with a number of guys on the verge of stepping in -- the Red Sox farm system, for instance -- I could justify how they handled it. But I will always see it as a missed opportunity. Even in the off chance that they had squeaked out a wild card spot, it's unlikely that team could have gone anywhere.

And, just to add, the other clubs the Orioles were competing with were making deals to add significant players (Toronto, for instance, added Tulowitzki and Price). The Orioles didn't really have the resources to make the moves that would have been required to keep up.

I don't think the things that provide those "predictions' have much value at all. Nor are they often correct. 

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I'm not saying there's no such thing as a winning mindset.   I'm just saying that if a day comes when the team is not a contender, the mindset will have to be, "what's the best way to get back to winning?"   And the answer to that may be trading some good players while they still have a high trade value.   We saw what happened in 1998-2000 when management waited too long to acknowledge that they had an aging, losing team.    

Yes, I would agree, but that day is not today.  It is difficult for me to guess what I might think will be the best way to approach a possible scenario in the future when there are so many variables which would play into that decision.  Is it possible that I may think trading Jones will be the way to go?  Sure, I suppose, but it is also quite possible that I will not think that is the way to go.

[Moondoggie]

1 hour ago, weams said:

I don't think the things that provide those "predictions' have much value at all. Nor are they often correct. 

What I'm talking about isn't predictions. It's a daily tracking of the odds of each team making the playoffs, winning the division, etc., based on thousands of computer simulations using all available data. For instance, the Orioles' chances of at least a wildcard at the trade deadline in 2014 stood at 72 percent. In 2016, the odds were 56.9 percent. It was 22 percent at the 2013 deadline.

[weams]

18 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

What I'm talking about isn't predictions. It's a daily tracking of the odds of each team making the playoffs, winning the division, etc., based on thousands of computer simulations using all available data. For instance, the Orioles' chances of at least a wildcard at the trade deadline in 2014 stood at 72 percent. In 2016, the odds were 56.9 percent. It was 22 percent at the 2013 deadline.

Odds are predictions. Or gambling lines.