How much more is Chris Davis worth than Mark Trumbo

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think that is obvious.  I think the OP asks the better question: sure Davis is better, but is he so much better that he warrants a contract that is twice as long and four times as much as what is being offered to Trumbo?

Davis is worth about a win per 600 PA more than Trumbo.  Trumbo is worth about 1.5 rWAR per full season over his career.  If he slips just a bit he's not even a regular.  Okay, not a good regular, not a regular who's helping you win.

You'd have to wishcast Trumbo into a plus first baseman who's going to keep repeating his career offensive years to match the 2016 version of Davis.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I agree they're not close in value.   We did overpay Davis, though, and I'm not sure he warrants getting a deal four times as much. 7/$161 mm is much more likely to hamstring the franchise than 3/$40 mm.     It hardly matters, since Davis is a done deal and Trumbo's best position is the one Davis plays.   He'd probably be more valuable to another team that has offensive issues at 1B.

3/40 won't kill you, but over Trumbo's last three years he's been worth a grand total of two wins.  A small handful of wins for $40M isn't helping things.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

3/40 won't kill you, but over Trumbo's last three years he's been worth a grand total of two wins.  A small handful of wins for $40M isn't helping things.

I think Trumbo had some injuries in 2014-15 that hampered his performance.   At $40 mm you're basically banking on 5 wins in 3 years.    That feels about right to me.    I don't particularly want Trumbo, but that deal wouldn't nauseated me, put it that way. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think Trumbo had some injuries in 2014-15 that hampered his performance.   At $40 mm you're basically banking on 5 wins in 3 years.    That feels about right to me.    I don't particularly want Trumbo, but that deal wouldn't nauseate me, put it that way. 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Trumbo had some injuries in 2014-15 that hampered his performance.   At $40 mm you're basically banking on 5 wins in 3 years.    That feels about right to me.    I don't particularly want Trumbo, but that deal wouldn't nauseated me, put it that way. 

Not the end of the world, but if you're paying $40M for five wins in three years that's doing nothing to help you win.  Any halfway decent GM should be able to find 1.5 wins a year at almost any position for pocket change.  Pedro Alvarezes and their platoon partners are there every offseason.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Not the end of the world, but if you're paying $40M for five wins in three years that's doing nothing to help you win.  Any halfway decent GM should be able to find 1.5 wins a year at almost any position for pocket change.  Pedro Alvarezes and their platoon partners are there every offseason.

How'd our 2015 combos work out?

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How'd our 2015 combos work out?

Better than 2014 Mark Trumbo's season.  And Travis Snider was on a 1/2 deal.  When he played poorly they released him.  If Trumbo has another 2-year run with zero value, as becomes more likely in his 30s, you keep him because you're paying him five or seven times what you were paying Snider.  Or 2-3 times Pedro Alvarez.

 

 

[scOtt]

How much more is Chris Davis worth than Mark Trumbo?

 

About $700 per hour. I did the math. $2300 per compared to $1600 per.

 

I make just over $20 per btw...