Make your Billy Hamilton trade offer

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would think it would be more like Givens and Sisco. Maybe more.

I don't think he would bring that much, not with 297 career OBP.  I don't think we agree on Givens' value.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I guess you don't put much stock in his .321 OBP last year, his .369 OBP in the 2nd half or his 2.8 WAR in 119 games.  He just turned 26.   Sometimes young players get better.   It might not be the case but it might be.    Career numbers can be misleading for a player who just played his age 25 season.

I put a lot of value in Givens and Sisco could turn into an offensive catcher, maybe.    You have to give something to get something.    I think where we disagree is on Hamilton's value.   In an unrealistic world, the Orioles could get a defensive CF and leadoff hitter, move Jones to RF and turn their outfield defense into a plus and have a legitimate leadoff hitter.    Of course, you'd have to buy into Hamilton's 2016 season as being his realistic average season, or close to it, moving forward.

Givens, in the end is a reliever.   He could be O'Day esqe in terms of performance and he'd still be worth dealing for the 2016 version of Hamilton, IMO.   

I put more weight in career numbers than I do in 45 games in which he had a 378 BABIP.

 

[Aristotelian]

The Orioles have made it abundantly clear that they do not value stolen bases. If Hamilton is traded he will go to another team that values them more. 

If SB counted toward TB, Hamilton would have an .800+ OPS, by the way. 

I would be interested to have Hamilton in CF with Jones in RF, I just doubt we would be the best fit.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Career numbers of a 26 year old player who has 3 major league seasons.   Ok.   We disagree.

45 games with an unsustainable BABIP.  OK.  We disagree.

[Number5]

20 hours ago, POR said:

Jason Heyward got his contact because he was a free agent at 26 and in addition to great defense he already had three full years with a ops of 797 or higher.  Last his ops was 631.

Hamilton score 51 runs in 76 games when he batted 1st or 2nd so he was on pace for 100 runs for a full year. Not bad. Hamilton's obp was 321 for the year which is average but it also was 369 in the second half.   His obp was 292 and 274 his first two years.  Hamilton clearly made strides last year. 

Yes, I understand that many people believe Heyward to be worth 8/$184.  That was my point.  Apparently you are one of them.  To me it was a massive overpay.  Massive.  I don't fault you for your opinion, I just think that taking WAR as being gospel can cause a big mistake, especially if the WAR is largely driven by the defensive component.  For me, Heyward is a dramatic example.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers on Hamilton, but he scored 69 runs in 119 games in 2016.  If you are saying that the Reds decided to bat him near the bottom of the order for 40 games, then I would say that I would completely understand their having done that.  They would be wise to continue that and hit their better hitters at the top of their order, IMO.  You don't want your weakest hitters getting the most at-bats.  If you are saying that Hamilton's unusually lucky BABIP for a month and a half in the latter part of last year is his new norm, well then no, I wouldn't agree with that.  Hamilton's speed and defense make him a major league player, despite his weak bat.  Those skills don't elevate him to the level of a star player, as many folks believe.  That is, of course, my opinion.  You are entitled to disagree, and you would appear to be among the majority.  Who knows?  Maybe the Reds can reach 70 wins this year.

[PaulFolk]

On 1/21/2017 at 11:23 AM, Number5 said:

I think this is a perfect example of why the "experts" projections are so wrong every year.  For many years, defense was undervalued.  Now, I believe that it is way off in the other direction.  The defensive component of WAR just doesn't pass the smell test, IMO.  This is why people believe Jason Heyward is worth 8/$184mm and say Trumbo for 3/$37.5mm is an overpay.  This is the reason a team like the Orioles puts up the best record in the AL over a 5-year period while being picked for 4th or 5th in their division year in and year out.  This is the reason a team like the Cincinnati Reds loses 94 games last year and 98 the year before that, yet points to their players and says "but, but but... WAR." 

I'm not following your argument here. The Reds are a bad team, and they've been actively rebuilding the last couple of years. That doesn't mean they don't have good players. Hamilton certainly would help the Orioles for his defense alone, even if his bat is questionable.

And I also don't see what that has to do with experts' projections being wrong, considering that everyone correctly projected the Reds to be a bad team.

[Number5]

4 hours ago, PaulFolk said:

I'm not following your argument here. The Reds are a bad team, and they've been actively rebuilding the last couple of years. That doesn't mean they don't have good players. Hamilton certainly would help the Orioles for his defense alone, even if his bat is questionable.

And I also don't see what that has to do with experts' projections being wrong, considering that everyone correctly projected the Reds to be a bad team.

Sorry for delay in response.  Was out reffing basketball.

The projections comment was regarding the overall abysmal record these sites have in projections and team predictions.  Comically, every year they claim that they did well, since the amount they miss on the upside for teams is offset by the amount they miss on the downside.  Duh.  Since every game has a winner and a loser, and the cumulative overall record of all the teams cannot fail to be exactly .500, this is an amazingly arrogant thing for them to say - and they say it every year.  They really and truly believe that we are all incredibly stupid and will actually buy that completely lame argument.  To assess how far off they have been league-wide you add together the amount they missed by on both sides of picking them exactly right, not cancel out the upside errors from the downside.  Most of the guys in your fantasy league would do no worse than what these "experts" do, provided they make sure that the total wins and losses they project for all teams combined are equal.  Seriously. 

Additionally, the difficulty they have had getting a handle on the proper weights and measures, as well as proper discretion on certain play types,  to apply in the defensive components of WAR is still there.  They are getting closer, especially at 2B, SS, and 3B, but players that play OF, 1B, and C, in particular, seem to have WAR numbers that often seem in contradiction to the actual results of games on the field.  I have my own ideas on some reasons why they seem to  miss the mark on these positions, and have commented on them in threads over the years, but suffice to say that there are players whose WAR doesn't pass the common sense test based on how the players, and their teams, have fared as a result of their play.  There are players that are just given way too much credit for their defense in determining their overall WAR, and others that are punished in their WAR too harshly for their defensive shortcomings, IMO.  This causes many folks to buy into a Jason Heyward being offered 8/$184, and Billy Hamilton being considered more valuable than all but four of the Orioles. 

Yes, certainly there are always certain teams that are quite obviously not contenders.  The Reds comment was directly concerning the poster's comment about Hamilton's WAR as related to the Orioles players.  As I have already stated, Billy Hamilton's defense and speed make him a major league player, despite his substandard bat.  Without that speed and defense, he is a AAAA player, if that, IMO.  My point is that, contrary to what his defense-inflated WAR may say, his defense and speed do not bring him up to the level of star player, IMO.  The fact that some may think that he is a star is, in my opinion, good for teams like the Orioles, and helps to explain the fact that the Orioles outperform these "expert" projections annually.

Please understand, I'm no expert, and don't even play one on TV.    I just happen to agree with the many players, coaches, managers, and executives that have voiced disagreement with the way these defensive metrics rate players, and how that impacts what is perceived as the players' overall value.  If you wish to consider Hamilton a star player, you can.  I have no problem with you buying into the WAR he is given if you wish.  I just don't.

[weams]

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I put more weight in career numbers than I do in 45 games in which he had a 378 BABIP.

 

I picked him up for my fantasy team during that stretch. He helped tremendously. In real baseball? I don't know what their record was. 

[POR]

On 1/21/2017 at 11:23 AM, Number5 said:

  This is why people believe Jason Heyward is worth 8/$184mm and say Trumbo for 3/$37.5mm is an overpay.   

I think that it is entirely possible that DD and the Orioles have a better model for determining true WAR than either BBRef or Fangraphs. 

There is supply and demand.  Look at the offensive only players that are still available. Chris Carter (41 homers), Pedro Alavarez, Adam Lind, Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli.  These guys are likely going to get a fraction of what Trumbo got.  

All I said about Hayward is that he got his large contract because he was a free agent at a young age and was considered an all around player.  He had a bad offensive year last year but if you are going to hold Hamilton responsible for the Reds record than I can point out that the Cubs were pretty good last year with Heyward.   

10 hours ago, Number5 said:

As I have already stated, Billy Hamilton's defense and speed make him a major league player, despite his substandard bat.  Without that speed and defense, he is a AAAA player, if that, IMO. 

That is a silly thing to say.  It is like saying without power, Trumbo never plays in the majors.   

Hamilton's speed makes him unique.  I think he was in the majors because of his speed before he was ready.  I think he made a lot of strides last year.  Here is an article that was written in the first half of last year before the results got better.  Also, Hamilton's babip should be better than average due to his speed.  

 

http://redsminorleagues.com/2016/06/02/billy-hamilton-improving-plate/

[weams]

3 minutes ago, POR said:

There is supply and demand.  Look at the offensive only players that are still available. Chris Carter (41 homers), Pedro Alavarez, Adam Lind, Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli.  These guys are likely going to get a fraction of what Trumbo got.  

All I said about Hayward is that he got his large contract because he was a free agent at a young age and was considered an all around player.  He had a bad offensive year last year but if you are going to hold Hamilton responsible for the Reds record than I can point out that the Cubs were pretty good last year with Heyward.   

That is a silly thing to say.  It is like saying without power, Trumbo never plays in the majors.   

Hamilton's speed makes him unique.  I think he was in the majors because of his speed before he was ready.  I think he made a lot of strides last year.  Here is an article that was written in the first half of last year before the results got better.  Also, Hamilton's babip should be better than average due to his speed.  

 

http://redsminorleagues.com/2016/06/02/billy-hamilton-improving-plate/

National League baseball is very different than AL ball. I assume you are an AL fan and an Orioles fan, because I am. I always want the Orioles to improve as I want them to be the best team every year. I guess that is the ultimate homer. If you think I never criticize players or staff that are on the team you don't know me very well. And that is ok.

I see no need for Hamilton on this Orioles team because Adam Jones, face of the franchise and team leader is not moving from center until he is a FA or traded or resigned with that understanding. Many AL center fielders think he is better out there than you and I do. 

As I stated, I appreciate the skills that Hamilton can bring to a club and for the Reds, I am certain that he brings much excitement. 

Orioles tend to not be run and gun type of teams and the current type of team that is assembled could do with a strong OBP component. That is not Hamilton. 

 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Number5 said:

Sorry for delay in response.  Was out reffing basketball.

The projections comment was regarding the overall abysmal record these sites have in projections and team predictions.  Comically, every year they claim that they did well, since the amount they miss on the upside for teams is offset by the amount they miss on the downside.  Duh.  Since every game has a winner and a loser, and the cumulative overall record of all the teams cannot fail to be exactly .500, this is an amazingly arrogant thing for them to say - and they say it every year.  They really and truly believe that we are all incredibly stupid and will actually buy that completely lame argument.  To assess how far off they have been league-wide you add together the amount they missed by on both sides of picking them exactly right, not cancel out the upside errors from the downside.  Most of the guys in your fantasy league would do no worse than what these "experts" do, provided they make sure that the total wins and losses they project for all teams combined are equal.  Seriously. 

Additionally, the difficulty they have had getting a handle on the proper weights and measures, as well as proper discretion on certain play types,  to apply in the defensive components of WAR is still there.  They are getting closer, especially at 2B, SS, and 3B, but players that play OF, 1B, and C, in particular, seem to have WAR numbers that often seem in contradiction to the actual results of games on the field.  I have my own ideas on some reasons why they seem to  miss the mark on these positions, and have commented on them in threads over the years, but suffice to say that there are players whose WAR doesn't pass the common sense test based on how the players, and their teams, have fared as a result of their play.  There are players that are just given way too much credit for their defense in determining their overall WAR, and others that are punished in their WAR too harshly for their defensive shortcomings, IMO.  This causes many folks to buy into a Jason Heyward being offered 8/$184, and Billy Hamilton being considered more valuable than all but four of the Orioles. 

Yes, certainly there are always certain teams that are quite obviously not contenders.  The Reds comment was directly concerning the poster's comment about Hamilton's WAR as related to the Orioles players.  As I have already stated,  Billy Hamilton's defense and speed make him a major league player, despite his substandard bat.  Without that speed and defense, he is a AAAA player, if that, IMO.  My point is that, contrary to what his defense-inflated WAR may say, his defense and speed do not bring him up to the level of star player, IMO.  The fact that some may think that he is a star is, in my opinion, good for teams like the Orioles, and helps to explain the fact that the Orioles outperform these "expert" projections annually.

Please understand, I'm no expert, and don't even play one on TV.    I just happen to agree with the many players, coaches, managers, and executives that have voiced disagreement with the way these defensive metrics rate players, and how that impacts what is perceived as the players' overall value.  If you wish to consider Hamilton a star player, you can.  I have no problem with you buying into the WAR he is given if you wish.  I just don't.

While I can support some parts of your argument, it seems to me there are several misconceptions in here.

1.  I have never seen one of these projection sites claim their system is good because the number of games they were over on certain teams is canceled out by the games they were under on other teams.   I agree that would be a ridiculous claim, and it's one I've never seen made.   Most of the analyses of projection systems that I've seen look at standard deviation, which is calculated along the lines you suggest, using widely accepted statistical methods.

2.  Projecting player performance and measuring player performance are two different things, so I really don't think your point about projections tells us anything about how good Billy Hamilton has been.

3.  I agree that WAR measures of defense have to be looked at more suspiciously that offense.    That said, have you spent much time watching Billy Hamilton play the outfield?   I haven't, but the idea that a guy who is probably the fastest player in the majors is also a very good defensive outfielder doesn't surprise me.    It certainly isn't counterintuitive.

4.  WAR doesn't claim that Hamilton's baserunning abilities outweigh Mark Trumbo's power.    Trumbo had 2.8 oWAR last year, Hamilton 1.2.    So WAR fully recognizes that Trumbo is a much better offensive player.   It's only the defense that makes Hamilton more valuable, and it is not that surprising that a very good CF has a lot more value that a very poor defensive corner OF.

5.   I don't think your point about Jayson Heyward makes a lot of sense.   The reason his contract looks so bad at the moment is that he just had by far the worst offensive year of his career.   Going into 2016, he had a career OPS+ of 114; last year he had an OPS+ of  70.   So, it has nothing to do with his defense being overvalued.   In fact, if you are going to press the (silly, in my opinion) argument that the fact that the Reds are a bad team undercuts what WAR says about Hamilton's value, then by that logic the fact that the Cubs won 103 games and the World Series must mean Heyward is very good.   In fact, there have been articles written that the 2016 Cubs may have been the best defensive team of all time (a claim which, as a witness to the Orioles teams of the '60's and '70's, I would heartily dispute), and Heyward clearly was a big contributor to them defensively.   The Braves went to the playoffs three times while Heyward was there;  the Cardinals won 100 games the one year Heyward was there; and now the Cubs have won a World Series with Heyward in their OF.    He had a bad offensive year last year, but he has been a very good player in his career.

6.  You argue against Hamilton being a "star," but WAR doesn't say that he is one.   2.8 rWAR is a nice season.   It's not a star season.    Adam Jones has had five seasons better than that.   Paul Blair had six seasons better than that.   Al Bumbry had five seasons better than that.   What Hamilton is, is a solid major leaguer who plays a premium defensive position very well, and has far greater likelihood of future success in the majors than Trey Mancini.    And I say that as a guy who is more bullish on Mancini than a lot of other people.  

[Larry18]

Hamilton still hits too many fly balls with poor exit velocity. This is what causes him, to have a poor BABIP, not luck.

As Weams just said, Hamilton's defense is elite but his overall game is a poor fit for the American League East.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Larry18 said:

Hamilton still hits too many fly balls with poor exit velocity. This is what causes him, to have a poor BABIP, not luck.

As Weams just said, Hamilton's defense is elite but his overall game is a poor fit for the American League East.

I think that the extent that someone's game "fits" a particular MLB division or not can be exaggerated.    Good defense and baserunning play everywhere.   I will grant you, those skills play up in the bigger ballparks, and some of the AL East parks are pretty cozy.   But our OF defense was a pretty big negative last year.    Put Jones in RF and Hamilton in CF and you could shade the defense towards LF a bit and probably save 30-40 runs.    We'd still have plenty of power in our lineup and it would add excitement to have Hamilton on the bases.     I'd love to have Hamilton.    That said, I can't think of a trade that would make sense for both teams.  

[paulcoates]

Does anyone really think that Adam Jones would just move over to RF?  I am pretty sure that he would be none to happy about this.  I think there is about a 5% chance the Orioles would even consider this.  The Orioles (Buck) simply does not value speed as an offensive component.

[POR]

5 hours ago, weams said:

National League baseball is very different than AL ball. I assume you are an AL fan and an Orioles fan, because I am. I always want the Orioles to improve as I want them to be the best team every year. I guess that is the ultimate homer. If you think I never criticize players or staff that are on the team you don't know me very well. And that is ok.

I see no need for Hamilton on this Orioles team because Adam Jones, face of the franchise and team leader is not moving from center until he is a FA or traded or resigned with that understanding. Many AL center fielders think he is better out there than you and I do. 

As I stated, I appreciate the skills that Hamilton can bring to a club and for the Reds, I am certain that he brings much excitement. 

Orioles tend to not be run and gun type of teams and the current type of team that is assembled could do with a strong OBP component. That is not Hamilton. 

 

As an Orioles fan I was heartbroken when they lost to the Royals in 2014.  It seemed like the Royals outfielders caught everything.  I am still not sure how Lorenzo Cain got to the ball that Pearce hit in game two.  That style of baseball worked pretty well for them in the AL.

I don't think the Orioles have the pieces to acquire Hamilton.  The Reds have little incentive to trade Hamilton unless the Orioles trade pitching which the Orioles don't have enough to trade.  I think outfield defense was a major issue for the Orioles last year.  Jones is average in center but the defense at the corners positions were a weakness that does not appear to have improved.  

I came into into this thread because I thought it was ridiculous that you would not trade Mancini for Hamilton. Mancini is a grade B prospect that is blocked for the next three years.    Putting Hamilton in center and Jones in right may not be realistic but it would be just what the Orioles need rather than the one dimensional team that they were last year. .

Jerry Dipito has the Mariners going in this direction with the Mallex Smith and Jerome Dyson acquisitions the last few weeks.  Dipito must not realize that the Mariners are in the AL.