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More hilarious than ever: PECOTA projects the Orioles at 71-91

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Normally, a projection system will tend to regress towards the mean and therefore the teams should be relatively tightly packed.

HOLD THE PRESSES: the projected standings have been revised already, with the O's now "upgraded" to 73-89, scoring 727 runs and allowing 813.   Our Fielding Runs Above Average is now -4.3 (Can_of_corn previously reported it was at -23.3).    Apparently the playing time for certain players was adjusted -- don't ask me who.   Thanks to the defensive adjustment, the ERA's are very slightly down (about .02-.03 each).

They must have just found out about the Andino and Giovatelli signings!

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pastorfan Major Leaguer

pastorfan

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6 hours ago, Frobby said:

PECOTA has the Orioles scoring 712 runs (down 32 from last year) and allowing 818 (up 103), leading to a 71-91 record and a last place finish.   At least they're consistent!  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

OPS Projections:

Davis .834

Schoop .727

Machado .813

Hardy .664

Kim .773

Jones .777

Smith .759

Trumbo .779

Castillo .724

Joseph .641

Flaherty .666

Rickard .712

Mancini .760

ERA Projections:

Tillman 5.06

Gausman 4.34

Bundy 4.66

Miley 4;56

Jimenez 4.99

Britton 2.94

O'Day 3.97

Brach 3.96

Givens 4.13

The offensive projections seem credible, though a bit pessimistic.    The pitching projections just seem outrageous.

 

I am no O's apologist, I just tell it like it is and this is a joke!  These projections are a joke, especially our bull pen. 

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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1 hour ago, pastorfan said:

I am no O's apologist, I just tell it like it is and this is a joke!  These projections are a joke, especially our bull pen. 

Yeah, it's getting comical at this point.

I still think there's something wrong with the defensive metrics for Oriole outfielders.

(we were still horrible last year though)

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ChuckS Hangout Grand Counsel

ChuckS

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Of the offensive projections, Manny's is the one I have the biggest problem with.  He has improved his OPS every season he's been in the league so why would it drop 50 points suddenly as he begins to enter his prime?  None of the other offensive projections seem that unreasonable although I would probably take the over on a good majority of them. 

I agree with the absurdity of the pitching projections.  Every one of those players listed could conceivably (and some I would even argue likely) outperform those ERA projections by more than a run.  They really don't like Tillman. Here's a guy who has had an ERA over 4 once in the last five years and they have him north of five.  Incredible!

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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11 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Of the offensive projections, Manny's is the one I have the biggest problem with.  He has improved his OPS every season he's been in the league so why would it drop 50 points suddenly as he begins to enter his prime?  None of the other offensive projections seem that unreasonable although I would probably take the over on a good majority of them. 

I agree with the absurdity of the pitching projections.  Every one of those players listed could conceivably (and some I would even argue likely) outperform those ERA projections by more than a run.  They really don't like Tillman. Here's a guy who has had an ERA over 4 once in the last five years and they have him north of five.  Incredible!

At this point I think they are honestly just having fun with us.   They have under-projected us for quite a few years in a row and they figure they might as well go all in and do it again.   Generates discussion, page hits.  They can't figure out the O's year after year so they are just said the heck with it, let's go out of our way to under-project them again and get people talking.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I thought a computer did this.   It seems pretty subjective on the pitchers.

A computer does everything other than the allocation of playing time for the team projections.    It does everything for the individual projections.   

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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One baseball magazine had us with 89 wins and in second and wildcard.

MLB Reports has us at 85-77 and 3rd place

 

USA Today has us at 84-78 and 3rd place 

Fangraphs has us at 82.4 (lol)  and 4th place

Any of these are better and more accurate than PECOTA and it does remain a bit of a mystery why we focus on their completely inaccurate system every year, unless it is just to get everybody riled up. 

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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2 hours ago, SteveA said:

At this point I think they are honestly just having fun with us.   They have under-projected us for quite a few years in a row and they figure they might as well go all in and do it again.   Generates discussion, page hits.  They can't figure out the O's year after year so they are just said the heck with it, let's go out of our way to under-project them again and get people talking.

I agree with this.  PECOTA is to MLB what "fake news" sites are to politics.  lol. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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57 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

One baseball magazine had us with 89 wins and in second and wildcard.

MLB Reports has us at 85-77 and 3rd place

 

USA Today has us at 84-78 and 3rd place 

Fangraphs has us at 82.4 (lol)  and 4th place

Any of these are better and more accurate than PECOTA and it does remain a bit of a mystery why we focus on their completely inaccurate system every year, unless it is just to get everybody riled up. 

There's a difference between a prediction based on subjective opinion and a projection based on a mathematical model.    PECOTA and fangraphs are the latter.   But where are you finding the fangraphs projections?    The list I see has them at 79-83.  http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

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