Should We Trade Davis?

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Saying the Tigers traded Fielder "at the top of his game" is a bit of an overstatement.    Fielder posted an .819 OPS and was worth 2.3 fWAR, 1.9 rWAR the year he was traded.   His HR total that year was the lowest he'd had in a full season.   

True, but with a .362 OBP and 100 fewer strikeouts than Chris Davis last year. Davis hit 13 more HR than Fielder that year, but Fielder still had a higher OPS and OPS+. And that was coming off five great seasons in a row up to that point. Fielder looked like much more of a sure thing for a bounce back than Davis does right now. Now if Davis hits 20 HR through May, he may become tradeable again...

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

True, but with a .362 OBP and 100 fewer strikeouts than Chris Davis last year. Davis hit 13 more HR than Fielder that year, but Fielder still had a higher OPS and OPS+. And that was coming off five great seasons in a row up to that point. Fielder looked like much more of a sure thing for a bounce back than Davis does right now. Now if Davis hits 20 HR through May, he may become tradeable again...

I think because of Fielder's physique, there was a lot of concern that his poor year was a sign of things to come.    I certainly felt that way at the time.    And Fielder still had seven years to go on his deal.    He was a much better hitter in his prime than Davis, but he seemed like a guy who would fall off a cliff.    I don't think Davis' last few years will be pretty either.

[ELMERO]

On 2/12/2017 at 8:13 PM, Bahama O's Fan said:

I know he has a terrible contract, but should we keep him around? Do we need him to be competitive? Or should we take almost anything if you could get it in a salary dump? (not that I think anyone would trade for him)

The Davis signing was purely a PR move.  So, to answer your question, no GM would take on an "albatross" contract like his.

[SteveA]

Baseball Prospectus projects a .834 OPS for Davis this year and .815 next year, both up from 2016.  Not saying that makes him worth the contract, but it does seem to indicate that they are at least somewhat buying in to the idea that maybe last year's decline was a bit of a fluke, whether due to the thumb or something else.

We can hope for that type of bounce back.  I don't think anyone would want to trade him for a bag of balls if he did that.

 

And I am in the camp that his defense is underrated.  I'm not convinced the defensive metrics accurately capture his value in preventing throwing errors from other infielders and getting outs on iffy throws that a lot of guys would come off the bag for or scooping bounced throws that many other first basemen would be happy just to keep in front of them.

[ELMERO]

On 2/12/2017 at 8:13 PM, Bahama O's Fan said:

I know he has a terrible contract, but should we keep him around? Do we need him to be competitive? Or should we take almost anything if you could get it in a salary dump? (not that I think anyone would trade for him)

Math has never been my strong suit, but, last year, he had 665 PAs.  Divide that into $23,000,000.00. that's $35,000.00 every time he walked up to the plate and 219 times, he didn't even put the ball in play!  The Angelos family is gonna have to live with this for the next six years.  Must be nice.

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, ELMERO said:

The Davis signing was purely a PR move.  So, to answer your question, no GM would take on an "albatross" contract like his.

I don't think teams pay $161 mm to a player as a PR move.   I think they substantially overpaid and will regret it by 2020 at the latest, but I don't think they did it because of PR.    Nor do I think they overpaid because Davis strikes out a lot.    I just don't think  he'll be that productive down the road.   In the meantime, I'm rooting for him to have a couple of great years.   

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, SteveA said:

And I am in the camp that his defense is underrated.  I'm not convinced the defensive metrics accurately capture his value in preventing throwing errors from other infielders and getting outs on iffy throws that a lot of guys would come off the bag for or scooping bounced throws that many other first basemen would be happy just to keep in front of them.

I think his defense is, if anything, overrated.    But he did have a very good year last year, and was appropriately recognized as a Gold Glove finalist (hence, not underrated).

[joeyc]

On 2/12/2017 at 8:21 PM, Frobby said:

I think his contract makes him untradeable, and he'll get more untradeable the longer the contract goes, since the more productive years should be the early ones.     I'm just hoping he can have a couple years of high level production.   His thumb was an issue last year and I think he'll have a better season in 2017, not that 2016 was that bad.

Exactly, No other team would pay him like we did. Remember, no other team was interested in him before we signed him, we bid against ourselves in this BAD deal.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, joeyc said:

Exactly, No other team would pay him like we did. Remember, no other team was interested in him before we signed him, we bid against ourselves in this BAD deal.

It was a bad deal.   Hopefully the first few years can be OK.

[Number5]

7 hours ago, joeyc said:

Exactly, No other team would pay him like we did. Remember, no other team was interested in him before we signed him, we bid against ourselves in this BAD deal.

I get your point, but Detroit was definitely interested.

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I get your point, but Detroit was definitely interested.

From what I understand Boras had talked the owner into being interested in Davis as an outfielder and the GM talked him down.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

From what I understand Boras had talked the owner into being interested in Davis as an outfielder and the GM talked him down.

Yes, I also recall that it was the owner, rest his soul, that wanted Davis.  He ended up heeding his GM's advice.

[Rich Mac]

On 2/13/2017 at 8:37 AM, webbrick2010 said:

Maybe he just isn't a very good hitter, maybe he shouldn't have been gifted 161 million dollars

He has a good chance to end his career with over 400 HRs. That money is hardly a gift.

[terps19]

With a good thumb I think he puts up a .260 BA again.  Since he has come to Baltimore he has hit .276, .270, .286, .196, .262, .221.  The .196 season was the adderall season and the .221 was the thumb season.   Davis had a .284 BA in June with 9 HRs and 24 RBIs before he hurt his hand right?  

[TouchemAll]

I think trying to unload Davis is just about impossible with that present contract.