Tillman is Back

[spiritof66]

14 hours ago, esmd said:

What a mess this has turned out to be for Tillman in his FA year.  At this rate, he'll be lucky to get a 1 yr deal for 5 million.

If he has a few good starts late in the season, after helping us to fall out of contention,  we'll have nothing and he'll have a good "I was regaining my fastball velocity and command after the injury" story to sell to a lot of teams (including the O's) desperate for starting pitching.

[FlipTheBird]

4 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

If he has a few good starts late in the season, after helping us to fall out of contention,  we'll have nothing and he'll have a good "I was regaining my fastball velocity and command after the injury" story to sell to a lot of teams (including the O's) desperate for starting pitching.

So you're advocating trading him when he's essentially damaged goods? What do they have to gain by doing that?

[OFFNY]

On 5/30/2017 at 8:21 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

8 OUTS: ) 3 Flyouts, 2 Groundouts, 1 Strikeout, 1 Popout, 1 Lineout

 

CHRISTOPHER STEVEN TILLMAN )))))) (vs. YANKEES, 5/30)

IP:llllllll 2.67

H:..lll)l  7 )) (3 Home Runs, 1 Double, 3 Singles) ll

R:lllllll) 5

BB:ll.lll2

SO:lll.lll1

Pitches: l)  59 )(33 )Strikes, )26 )Balls)

2017 ERA: l) 5.87

2017 WHIP: l) 1.870  )  23.00 Innings  (43 H/BB)

2017 OPPONENTS BATTING AVG: l) .323  )   32 for 99

 

PITCHES BY INNING

*******************

14 llll(91 lStrikes, lll 51 .Balls)

19 l..(11 )Strikes, )..l81l.Balls)

26 l)l(13 .Strikes, lll 13 l)Balls) ) *

 

* ) Tillman recorded 2 outs before departing in the 3rd inning.

o

o

 

Tillman asserted that he is physically fine.

He said that his problems are more due to a lack of execution and the need to improve his mechanics than they are to a lack of arm strength.

 

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/05/chris-tillman-said-he-is-physically-fine-after-start-against-new-york.html

 

o

[LookitsPuck]

4 seam fastball velocity (max vs. average):

• 2014: 95.8, 90.8
• 2015: 95.2, 91.5
• 2016: 95.8, 91.7
• 2017: 92.6, 90.2

Tillman's problem right now is a combination of command (hitters are batting .500 off his fastball and .500 off his knuckle-curve) and velocity. 

His walk rate is 4.3. It's the highest it's been since 2010. Hits are way up. 

Granted it's only 23 IP. But the problem is I suspect he's playing hurt still. I'm sure rust is involved.

But my goodness, he doesn't look good right now.

[OFFNY]

27 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

 

4 seam fastball velocity (max vs. average):

• 2014: 95.8, 90.8
• 2015: 95.2, 91.5
• 2016: 95.8, 91.7
• 2017: 92.6, 90.2

Tillman's problem right now is a combination of command (hitters are batting .500 off his fastball and .500 off his knuckle-curve) and velocity. 

His walk rate is 4.3. It's the highest it's been since 2010. Hits are way up. 

Granted it's only 23 IP. But the problem is I suspect he's playing hurt still. I'm sure rust is involved.

But my goodness, he doesn't look good right now.

 

o

 

Do you think that he's playing hurt, or do you think that he just isn't back to 100 percent in recovering from his injury ???

The latter would be much more promising.

 

o

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Do you think that he's playing hurt, or do you think that he just isn't back to 100 percent in recovering from his injury ???

The latter would be much more promising.

 

o

I wish I knew. The problem w/ Tillman is his velocity is all over the place. He'll start a game and he'll barely hit 90...and then he'll do another game where he's hitting 91-3. Not necessarily this year...but in the past.

Probably a combination of the 2.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Do you think that he's playing hurt, or do you think that he just isn't back to 100 percent in recovering from his injury ???

The latter would be much more promising.

 

o

I don't think you recover from an injury by pitching.   

[sportsfan8703]

On 5/31/2017 at 8:59 AM, Frobby said:

Tillman seemed afraid to throw his fastball last night.     He threw only  21 in 59 pitches.    He threw 19 changeups.   

He's only pitching to one side of the plate.  We've seen guys with 89-90 mph fastballs be successful.  Move that thing around and establish one breaking pitch.  Don't try and get all 4 pitches going in the first inning or two.  

[Chavez Ravine]

On 5/31/2017 at 5:59 AM, Frobby said:

Tillman seemed afraid to throw his fastball last night.     He threw only  21 in 59 pitches.    He threw 19 changeups.   

According to this article by Mike Petriello from last June, that is just a tad less than his fastball frequency from early last year...and according to Mike it was one of the reasons for his success.  That article is kind of an interesting read today, I am not sure if it explains anything but he makes some interesting observations.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/184440502/chris-tillman-changed-his-fastball-to-succeed/
 

Quote

 

So while Tillman's fastball is improved, it's also important that hitters see it less. Over the first six years of his career, he threw a four-seamer approximately 60 percent of the time. This year, that's down to only 40 percent, as Tillman has mixed in a sinking two-seamer, among other changes. He's allowed just a .206 average on the four-seamer, 30 to 40 points below what it had been.

 

 

Quote

 

In 2012, Tillman's previous best season, he threw a career-high 93.1 mph. But the next year, that fell slightly to 92.7 mph, then to 91.8 mph in 2014. That's not terribly surprising; many pitchers lose velocity as innings pile up on their arms. While Tillman rebounded a bit last year, that's nothing compared to this year, as his 93.6 mph is the highest of his career. We saw this on Opening Day, and it's mostly kept up.

Even more importantly, it's not just the average that's changed. It's the percentage of balls Tillman is throwing harder. Here's what we mean by that: In 2013, he threw 19.8 percent of fastballs 93 mph or harder. The next year, that was a mere 8.9 percent. This year? A career-high 52.8 percent of Tillman's fastballs are 93 mph or harder.

 

 

[OFFNY]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I don't think you recover from an injury by pitching.   

 

o

 

I meant that perhaps he was still not at 100 percent strength yet from the injury.

And actually, pitching is often part of the recovery process from an injury, although it is not recommended to be done at the Major League level.

 

o

[Can_of_corn]

Tillman has turned the league into Joey Votto

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-tillman-aint-right/

Quote

Chris Tillman has started five games since coming off the disabled list, and he’s thrown 452 pitches. When he’s thrown a pitch out of the zone, he’s gotten a swing 24% of the time. When he’s thrown a pitch in the zone, he’s gotten a swing 75% of the time. Tillman, therefore, is running a swing-rate difference of 51 percentage points.

 

Quote

Name an indicator. For Tillman, it’s a red flag. Recent DL stint? Tillman opened the year with a shoulder problem. Velocity? Tillman is down a few ticks. Fastball usage? Tillman is down more than a dozen ticks. Contact? Tillman’s gotten worse. Zone rate? Tillman’s gotten worse. He has one of the lowest strike rates in baseball. He’s worked ahead in the count at one of the lowest rates in baseball. Tillman has thrown a first-pitch strike — this isn’t a typo — to just 42% of his batters. He used to hang around in the upper 50s. That would stand as one of the very lowest first-pitch-strike rates on record.

 

 

 

[OFFNY]

On 6/1/2017 at 2:41 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

Tillman asserted that he is physically fine.

He said that his problems are more due to a lack of execution and the need to improve his mechanics than they are to a lack of arm strength.

 

Chris Tillman Says He is Physically Fine after Start against Yankees

(By Steve Melewski)

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/05/chris-tillman-said-he-is-physically-fine-after-start-against-new-york.html

 

o

o

 

(vs. RED SOX, 6/04)

6 Innings, 3 Earned Runs (5 Overall.)

 

o

[MDtransplant757]

15 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

(vs. RED SOX, 6/04)

6 Innings, 3 Earned Runs (5 Overall.)

 

o

Would have had a chance to win if Pena didn't make a stupid mistake. Or Wright throw a meatball to Bettintendi

[SteveA]

A bit encouraged by Tillman's performance today.   Velocity on the fastball was up, breaking stuff was filthy.

Now we need to see if he can do it twice in a row.  I hope my feeling that his shoulder is damaged good turns out to be wrong, but I need more than one respectable start to change my mind.

[Sessh]

51 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Would have had a chance to win if Pena didn't make a stupid mistake. Or Wright throw a meatball to Bettintendi

Nah, the Orioles didn't score after the first inning and Tillman would have left with the game tied. Let's not forget that he allowed 10 base runners in those six innings as well which is unacceptable. Even without the Pena error, the Orioles still lose by two and Wright still comes in the game and does what he does which is giving up runs.

Tillman isn't the same pitcher anymore and although I do think he has the pitching IQ to survive as a starter, he is no longer (at this point anyway) a TOR pitcher. He has allowed nine or more base runners in four of the six starts he has made since coming back good for a 1.82 WHIP while averaging only 4.6 innings a start. He does get his FB up to 92-93 on occasion, but he has no control over where it goes which likely means it's no longer easy to throw that hard. We see shoulder injuries do this to pitchers all the time and while it's too early to say for sure that it's a permanent change, it's certainly cause for concern. Tillman was at his best when he was routinely touching 93-94 with command and now, he's only managing 89-91 with command.