Grade the O's offseason

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

 

• The team has a reputation of being great defensively but it seems like everyone forgot to update that opinion; we weren't outstanding last year. The outfield looks much worse on that front than this past year.

I'm not following you here.    Smith is better defensively than Trumbo, one of our 4th/5th outfielders will be better than Reimold, and the other will either be Rickard (a wash from last year) or somebody better than Rickard. I think our OF defense will be considerably better than last year, though possibly still only average or a bit below.  

[FlipTheBird]

36 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

If I'm grading them today, C+.

Pros:

• Welington Castillo for 2/13 is a better value than MW's 2/21 for similar production. You can argue for MW's familiarity with the pitching staff is favorable, but I was happy with O's walking away.
• Seth Smith as a replacement for Pedro Alvarez is kind of a wash, but if this is what it took to get rid of Yovanni Gallardo, that's fine.
• Anthony Santander is a nice grab.
• There are some other small moves like Nuno, Bleier, Ynoa, and Verrett that really bolstered an already great bullpen.
• Happy to see Bourn back.

Cons:

• This was a playoff team with a glaring flaw; starting pitching. This team is not better than it was, and with Tillman hurt, it's probably worse. This entire season hinges on the success of Bundy and Gausman. 
• We still do not have a farm system to speak of, and very little depth. In the event Hardy can't recover from his back spasms, we're left with Flaherty and Machado but NOTHING in AAA to back them up except Robert Andino. What's the backup plan for the middle infield?
• The team has a reputation of being great defensively but it seems like everyone forgot to update that opinion; we weren't outstanding last year. The outfield looks much worse on that front than this past year.

Summary: We're the hare sleeping at the finish line while other tortoise teams made real moves to improve. I see a team spinning it's wheels in the mud; there aren't any "wow" prospects to be excited about because DD routinely trades them away for players that don't amount to anything (see Parra, K-Rod, Snider, etc.) We had big flaws in the starting rotation and didn't address them. What is DD's vision? Are we all in? I'm not sure I see what at which he's aiming.

The Orioles didn't trade any "Wow" prospects for Parra, K-Rod or Snider. Just run of the mill guys. Davies, Brault, Tarpley and Delmonico have amounted to very little between them thus far. Granted they're all still young enough to blossom, but none of these were "Wow" prospect moves. They were lower tier guys. Davies is the only one that's stuck in MLB so far, and it's hard to say if he'd have been an asset to the O's last year in the AL East. His numbers in Milwaukee were pedestrian.

Bundy, Sisco, Harvey, Gausman. These are the guys that DD has NOT traded in the last few years, despite team's interest in them. They were (in the form of Kevin and Dylan) and are (in the form of Hunter and Chance) the "Wow" prospects, and they're still here.

[FlipTheBird]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm not following you here.    Smith is better defensively than Trumbo, one of our 4th/5th outfielders will be better than Reimold, and the other will either be Rickard (a wash from last year) or somebody better than Rickard. I think our OF defense will be considerably better than last year, though possibly still only average or a bit below.  

Maybe he really loved Nolan Reimold's play? I'm very confused with his stance.

[jtschrei]

I give it a C-.

1. I like the addition of Smith. 

2. I don't understand bringing Trumbo back when Mancini is sitting there staring at you. I can only surmise that Dan knows the window is closing and Trumbo just seemed so cheap. I think Alvarez and Mancini could have provided 90% of the production of Trumbo at 1/5 the cost. Now you've got Mancini sitting in AAA at a terrible hitters' park while his trade value and confidence go down. 

3. Meanwhile, we never got a right fielder. I don't get it. This is an obvious hole that wasn't filled. There were trades to be made.

4. We never worked on an extension for Britton or Schoop, not to mention Machado. I guess we're just going to let Manny walk out the door. Britton wants to be here. There is a very high value on players like him. How many saves did he blow last year? Remind me. He can always be traded for premium prospects. I'm not letting Dan off the hook here. We could have given Trumbo's 37 million to Britton as part of an extension. Who would you rather have, an elite, elite closer for the next 3 years or a very replaceable DH? 

I think the squad is about the same as last year. I think we'll be around that 86-87 win mark and right in the thick of it for a wild card spot. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

I give it a C-.

1. I like the addition of Smith. 

2. I don't understand bringing Trumbo back when Mancini is sitting there staring at you. I can only surmise that Dan knows the window is closing and Trumbo just seemed so cheap. I think Alvarez and Mancini could have provided 90% of the production of Trumbo at 1/5 the cost. Now you've got Mancini sitting in AAA at a terrible hitters' park while his trade value and confidence go down.

While I see your point of view on the rest of your post, I question whether playing in Norfolk really affects a player's confidence or trade value.     As to confidence, I don't think these players are delicate little flowers.   As to trade value, I think any GM is going to know that Norfolk (and to some degree, the entire International League) is a very tough environment for hitters.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

While I see your point of view on the rest of your post, I question whether playing in Norfolk really affects a player's confidence or trade value.     As to confidence, I don't think these players are delicate little flowers.   As to trade value, I think any GM is going to know that Norfolk (and to some degree, the entire International League) is a very tough environment for hitters.

There are 800 of them. And the rest wish they were. 

[Moondoggie]

I'd give them a C. It's basically the usual acquisition of cheap fill-in options, only more of them than normal. While putting almost anybody in right field instead of Trumbo upgrades the outfield defense, it seems the bulk of playing time in the corner outfield spots will still go to average or below defenders. I wasn't really advocating bringing back Trumbo, but as long as it's as nearly as possible exclusively as a DH then I'm fine with it. Speed and OBP, it seems, will still be lacking. There's no true leadoff hitter. There are still far too many strikeouts in the lineup. But if they hit on some of these guys they'll be right in the thick of things again.

[mdbdotcom]

C-

Machado, Schoop, Rickard and Kim are likely to be the only position players on the team (including bench players) who are younger than 30 years old.

I'm usually very enthused about the upcoming season, this time of year, but this off-season moved us one step closer to being the Phillies without solving our OBP and outfield defense issues. Yes, there may be incremental improvements, but it's like using a paper cup to bilge the Titanic.

While our starting pitching will be the best it has been in years, I'm expecting lots of solo home runs and strikeouts from the offense, and not necessarily a whole lot of wins. Hope I'm wrong.

Damn, I hate writing this, but that's what I see.

[weams]

16 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

C-

Machado, Schoop, Rickard and Kim are likely to be the only position players on the team (including bench players) who are younger than 30 years old.

I'm usually very enthused about the upcoming season, this time of year, but this off-season moved us one step closer to being the Phillies without solving our OBP and outfield defense issues. Yes, there may be incremental improvements, but it's like using a paper cup to bilge the Titanic.

While our starting pitching will be the best it has been in years, I'm expecting lots of solo home runs and strikeouts from the offense, and not necessarily a whole lot of wins. Hope I'm wrong.

Damn, I hate writing this, but that's what I see.

 

[mdbdotcom]

Yup, but here in St. Pete it's a little warmer.

[Bradysburns]

On 2/20/2017 at 11:01 PM, El Gordo said:

Bourn move the needle from C+ to B-.

That's precisely my take. Dan made a lot of under-the-radar moves... the kind that quietly win games for you over the course of a long season. When a starter goes down in August, and Ynoa comes up and wins three games in a row out of nowhere, etc. Those are the kinds of things that have to happen for a team to go all the way. And he has acquired several players with the potential to contribute. Many of them are specialists, or somewhat one-dimensional. Dan and Buck are masters at building and managing rosters with one-dimensional pieces that complement each other.

I would have raised it to a B or even a B-plus if we had acquired a quality, full-time corner outfielder or mid-rotation starter. 

[weams]

4 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Maybe he really loved Nolan Reimold's play? I'm very confused with his stance.

Maybe he expects Joey to tank. 

[FlipTheBird]

5 hours ago, jtschrei said:

I give it a C-.

1. I like the addition of Smith. 

2. I don't understand bringing Trumbo back when Mancini is sitting there staring at you. I can only surmise that Dan knows the window is closing and Trumbo just seemed so cheap. I think Alvarez and Mancini could have provided 90% of the production of Trumbo at 1/5 the cost. Now you've got Mancini sitting in AAA at a terrible hitters' park while his trade value and confidence go down. 

3. Meanwhile, we never got a right fielder. I don't get it. This is an obvious hole that wasn't filled. There were trades to be made.

4. We never worked on an extension for Britton or Schoop, not to mention Machado. I guess we're just going to let Manny walk out the door. Britton wants to be here. There is a very high value on players like him. How many saves did he blow last year? Remind me. He can always be traded for premium prospects. I'm not letting Dan off the hook here. We could have given Trumbo's 37 million to Britton as part of an extension. Who would you rather have, an elite, elite closer for the next 3 years or a very replaceable DH? 

I think the squad is about the same as last year. I think we'll be around that 86-87 win mark and right in the thick of it for a wild card spot. 

I didn't realize that by not extending these guys this offseason, it become impossible to extend them at all?

Schoop especially, given that he's a few years behind Britton and Machado.

Everyone's worried about Manny, because he's going to command a silly salary. The Orioles have probably already internally decided if they're going to be able to keep him - long before they gave Trumbo a contract. We'll see.

As for Britton... There are teams that can afford to invest what he's about to get paid in a closer. I don't think the Orioles are one of them. It's just so much money for a guy that's going to throw 70 innings. He's already making north of 11 million dollars a year. He may top 15 when he's a FA. The O's can't invest that in a relief pitcher, I'm sorry.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I didn't realize that by not extending these guys this offseason, it become impossible to extend them at all?

Schoop especially, given that he's a few years behind Britton and Machado.

Everyone's worried about Manny, because he's going to command a silly salary. The Orioles have probably already internally decided if they're going to be able to keep him - long before they gave Trumbo a contract. We'll see.

As for Britton... There are teams that can afford to invest what he's about to get paid in a closer. I don't think the Orioles are one of them. It's just so much money for a guy that's going to throw 70 innings. He's already making north of 11 million dollars a year. He may top 15 when he's a FA. The O's can't invest that in a relief pitcher, I'm sorry.

How many do you think is a "few"?

Machado and Britton are free agents in 2019.

Schoop is a free agent in 2020.

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many do you think is a "few"?

Machado and Britton are free agents in 2019.

Schoop is a free agent in 2020.

Eh, so it was one and not two like I though. Point being, there's an enormous window left to retain him. "Not discussing an extension with Schoop" seemed a strange thing to be upset about for this offseason.