Pagan--the Final Piece

[pastorfan]

Nats reportedly interested in Pagan. We should bring him in on a one year deal. For some reason many around here seem not to like him, but the paragraph below is exactly why we should be interested in him. High OBP, speed, and does not strike out much--not exactly the Oriole way, but we could use it.

"Last season, the switch-hitter batted .277/.331/.418 with a career-high 12 home runs in 543 trips to the plate. He also provided above-average value on the bases (15-for-19 in stolen bases and, per Fangraphs, +1.9 runs overall) and was one of the game’s most difficult batters to strike out. Only 16 players whiffed at a rate lower than Pagan’s 12.2 percent in 2016."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/nationals-rumor-interested-angel-pagan.html

[Bradysburns]

Agreed - Pagan on a 1-year deal would make a lot of sense. You might wind up having to leave someone good off the roster to make room for him, but that's generally a good problem to have. 

[FanSince88]

37 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

Nats reportedly interested in Pagan. We should bring him in on a one year deal. For some reason many around here seem not to like him, but the paragraph below is exactly why we should be interested in him. High OBP, speed, and does not strike out much--not exactly the Oriole way, but we could use it.

"Last season, the switch-hitter batted .277/.331/.418 with a career-high 12 home runs in 543 trips to the plate. He also provided above-average value on the bases (15-for-19 in stolen bases and, per Fangraphs, +1.9 runs overall) and was one of the game’s most difficult batters to strike out. Only 16 players whiffed at a rate lower than Pagan’s 12.2 percent in 2016."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/nationals-rumor-interested-angel-pagan.html

Three questions though:  

1) Can he be counted on to hit lefties better than Rickard and Gentry would?

2) Will he be as good or better on defense (INCLUDING center field as a backup to Jones) than one of (not necessarily both) Rickard or Gentry?

3) Are you prepared to send Mancini to the minors to start the season?  

If the answer to all three of those questions is yes, then I would give him guaranteed money.  But I'm not sure the answer to all three is yes.  Had we not already traded for Seth Smith and thrown Gentry into the mix, it would be a different story.  

[FanSince88]

OR, if you answered no to any of the above questions, are you willing to trade Kim?  

[25 Nuggets]

9 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

OR, if you answered no to any of the above questions, are you willing to trade Kim?  

Kim gets on base better than anyone else on the team but he is so bad defensively that trading him would not be a big loss.

[backwardsk]

I'm not sure if I'd classify .331 OBP as "high".  It would have been 4th on last year's team. Fifth if you include Seth Smith.

[Spy Fox]

I still think Pagan would be a nice depth addition, although the Bourn injury/opt-out situation muddies the water a bit. And if the budget situation is razor-thin, it might be better to save any last bits of cash for summer acquisitions. I would not trade Kim to accommodate Pagan. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

One issue with Pagan is that he's a SH, but he's actually 40 points better over his career as a LHB against RHP (.750 vs .709 as a RHB vs. LHP, including .311 career OBP).  In many ways he's not particularly additive to the team as currently constructed unless you were dealing Kim for something of value.

This continued last year as well.  His batting lines:

RHB vs. LHP: 180 PA, .266/.291/.426/,717

LHB vs. RHP: 363 PA, .282/.352/.414/.766

He had more power from the right side (7 HR vs. 5 HR despite half the PAs, but that seems to be noise/randomness as he has way more 2B and 3B, 20/4, from the left than the right, 4/1).

[Redskins Rick]

I hope this doesn't get taken the wrong way.

But some act like Pagan is the missing piece for a contending WS team.

To me, I am a bit MEH, just another roster piece on a roster full of similar pieces.

[jamalshw]

I won't mind adding Pagan, but as others have said, he's not a great fit. To me, he's as much of a fit on this roster as Bourn is/was and I was having a hard time placing him on the roster. He'd essentially have to fit in as a bench player and would bump either Mancini or Tavarez off the roster (or Santander if he's not starting on the DL). I think you have to have either Gentry or Rickard to platoon with Smith. We know he's a platoon player. Pagan only becomes useful if you feel confident with Kim against at least some LHP. Pagan would then be a defensive replacement for Kim or Smith late. 

In all honesty, I see more playing time for Pagan elsewhere and that's likely the biggest thing he's looking for at the moment. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

8 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I won't mind adding Pagan, but as others have said, he's not a great fit. To me, he's as much of a fit on this roster as Bourn is/was and I was having a hard time placing him on the roster. He'd essentially have to fit in as a bench player and would bump either Mancini or Tavarez off the roster (or Santander if he's not starting on the DL). I think you have to have either Gentry or Rickard to platoon with Smith. We know he's a platoon player. Pagan only becomes useful if you feel confident with Kim against at least some LHP. Pagan would then be a defensive replacement for Kim or Smith late. 

In all honesty, I see more playing time for Pagan elsewhere and that's likely the biggest thing he's looking for at the moment. 

Makes way more sense as a 4th OF for a NL club IMO.

[FlipTheBird]

The problem is that Pagan, like most switch hitters, hits righties better than lefties. But he doesn't hit them as well as Smith or Kim.

I just don't see him as a fit anymore, especially since we're covered up in "part-time" outfielders as it is.

I'd sooner take a flyer on one of the starting arms that's still out there, as sheer depth.

[weams]

I do not want him. 

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, FanSince88 said:

Three questions though:  

1) Can he be counted on to hit lefties better than Rickard and Gentry would?

2) Will he be as good or better on defense (INCLUDING center field as a backup to Jones) than one of (not necessarily both) Rickard or Gentry?

3) Are you prepared to send Mancini to the minors to start the season?  

If the answer to all three of those questions is yes, then I would give him guaranteed money.  But I'm not sure the answer to all three is yes.  Had we not already traded for Seth Smith and thrown Gentry into the mix, it would be a different story.  

Good points. Though my thought was that Pagan = Rickard and Bourn, thus you save a spot on the roster for Mancini. Again I would not underestimate the fact that he has been on winning teams. It might mean nothing, but maybe it would help.

[jamalshw]

2 hours ago, pastorfan said:

Good points. Though my thought was that Pagan = Rickard and Bourn, thus you save a spot on the roster for Mancini. Again I would not underestimate the fact that he has been on winning teams. It might mean nothing, but maybe it would help.

Well...Bourn is already out of the question (at least at the start given the injury) so it may be a moot point. I also see Pagan as a downgrade to Rickard (or Gentry) in the role of weak-side platoon player. To me, you're sitting with: Joseph, Flaherty and Rickard/Gentry on the bench. That leaves one spot open for Mancini, Tavarez, Santander, the other of Rickard/Gentry, etc. 

If you add Pagan, would he improve that 25th spot on the roster? Maybe a little. If Kim cannot hit LHP well enough to merit full-time at bats, does the move from Mancini to Pagan in that spot (with Pagan in the OF and Trumbo staying at DH) merit an improvement? Again, maybe. I think the defense and offense considered, it might be an improvement and the consistent ABs for Mancini at AAA may be better for his development and value to the team (either on the roster or via trade) down the road. How about if the team is comfortable with Kim most days against LHP? In that case, it's probably a Rule 5 guy that he takes the place of. Is it worth losing Tavarez for the upgrade to Pagan? Is it an upgrade? If Santander cannot be stashed on the DL for some time, the same questions apply to him.