Pedro back. (Will he opt out?)

[Dark Helmet]

14 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

But how do you know he'll be a bad outfielder? As I noted previously, he never had any problem with popups or short fly balls when he played third base. Nor were his instincts a problem. His problem was throwing the ball to first base. It's entirely possible he may be able to catch fly balls and hit the cutoff man effectively. If that's the case, it's just a matter of seeing whether or not he has adequate instincts and then giving him some experience. He's more mobile than Trumbo. So what harm does it do to give him a shot on a minor league deal? It's not like they're planning to take him to Baltimore on Opening Day and stick him in left field.

Kim can catch a fly ball right to him. It's routes and range that hurt him. I'm not sure being more mobile than Trumbo is that hard to do. And I already stated it's not a bad move. But he doesn't fit the "speed and defensive" OF DD preached all winter. 

[Babypowder]

13 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

But how do you know he'll be a bad outfielder? As I noted previously, he never had any problem with popups or short fly balls when he played third base. Nor were his instincts a problem. His problem was throwing the ball to first base. It's entirely possible he may be able to catch fly balls and hit the cutoff man effectively. If that's the case, it's just a matter of seeing whether or not he has adequate instincts and then giving him some experience. He's more mobile than Trumbo. So what harm does it do to give him a shot on a minor league deal? It's not like they're planning to take him to Baltimore on Opening Day and stick him in left field.

I know he will be bad outfielder because he's big, fat, and slow.

[Moondoggie]

7 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Kim can catch a fly ball right to him. It's routes and range that hurt him. I'm not sure being more mobile than Trumbo is that hard to do. And I already stated it's not a bad move. But he doesn't fit the "speed and defensive" OF DD preached all winter. 

But Alvarez isn't a big, lumbering guy. He's fairly athletic. He had good range at third, so maybe he'll have good range in the outfield. It might come down more to the instincts than anything else and we won't really know until he gives it a try. So I fully believe they're going to give him a look in the outfield.

[Moondoggie]

2 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

I know he will be bad outfielder because he's big, fat, and slow.

He's more athletic than you think.

[Dark Helmet]

14 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

I know he will be bad outfielder because he's big, fat, and slow.

Pretty much what I was trying to say in a nicer way lol. 

[Dark Helmet]

13 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

But Alvarez isn't a big, lumbering guy. He's fairly athletic. He had good range at third, so maybe he'll have good range in the outfield. It might come down more to the instincts than anything else and we won't really know until he gives it a try. So I fully believe they're going to give him a look in the outfield.

He's not a big lumbering guy? Are we talking about the same Pedro Alvarez? And good range at 3B where you make a step or two to one side or the other, is a huge difference then chasing a ball down in the gap, or running in on a sinking liner. Compared to Alvarez, Kim is athletic looking...and he can't do it well.

[DrungoHazewood]

21 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

But how do you know he'll be a bad outfielder? As I noted previously, he never had any problem with popups or short fly balls when he played third base. Nor were his instincts a problem. His problem was throwing the ball to first base. It's entirely possible he may be able to catch fly balls and hit the cutoff man effectively. If that's the case, it's just a matter of seeing whether or not he has adequate instincts and then giving him some experience. He's more mobile than Trumbo. So what harm does it do to give him a shot on a minor league deal? It's not like they're planning to take him to Baltimore on Opening Day and stick him in left field.

This is one of those concepts where your Bayesian prior has to be "he's a gonna be terrible".  Seriously, we know it's stretching credibility to think a guy who wasn't good enough to really play third, and didn't impress anyone at first, is going to be anything but a poor outfielder.  He's slow, and he's never played a professional inning in the outfield.  We know he's not even stood in an kind of a game since at least 2008.  Just knowing that I'd pencil him in as a -15 outfielder and then kind of adjust from there with observations and data.

I'm actually going with the idea that the O's are running a kind science experiment to determine the outer limits of modern defensive metrics and tracking systems.  Kind of a baseline of data, what does happen when you put someone fully unqualified to be a major league outfielder in the outfield.  Similar to observing pitchers hitting.  The next iteration will be one involving no second baseman but four outfielders.  All in the name of science.

[Babypowder]

1 minute ago, Moondoggie said:

He's more athletic than you think.

I guess we will see. I saw the opposite of an athlete when he got his chances to play defense and when he was baserunning. The only way he could have even average range would be if they let him play on a Segway.

He's about as "athletic" as Mark Trumbo.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

This is one of those concepts where your Bayesian prior has to be "he's a gonna be terrible".  Seriously, we know it's stretching credibility to think a guy who wasn't good enough to really play third, and didn't impress anyone at first, is going to be anything but a poor outfielder.  He's slow, and he's never played a professional inning in the outfield.  We know he's not even stood in the outfield in a professional game since at least 2008.  Just knowing that I'd pencil him in as a -15 outfielder and then kind of adjust from there with observations and data.

I'm actually going with the idea that the O's are running a kind science experiment to determine the outer limits of modern defensive metrics and tracking systems.  Kind of a baseline of data, what does happen when you put someone fully unqualified to be a major league outfielder in the outfield.  Similar to observing pitchers hitting.  The next iteration will be one involving no second baseman but four outfielders.  All in the name of science.

That's a bit too harsh a criticism.  If you discount the impact the yips had one his throwing his numbers were not bad at third.  I don't think the yips has much to do with a lack of athleticism.

[Babypowder]

11 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

But Alvarez isn't a big, lumbering guy. He's fairly athletic. He had good range at third, so maybe he'll have good range in the outfield. It might come down more to the instincts than anything else and we won't really know until he gives it a try. So I fully believe they're going to give him a look in the outfield.

He absolutely is a big, lumbering guy now. Back when he could play third, he was noticeably in better shape and of course, younger. Guys who can't play corner infield at acceptable levels almost definitely can't play outfield either. You have to assume he's going to be very bad at it.

[Can_of_corn]

Of course the above doesn't mean that I think he can revive his career as an outfielder.

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

What makes you think that? He was horrible last year in a SSS. Just because he has speed doesn't mean he can play defense. 

 

34 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

What makes you think that? He was horrible last year in a SSS. Just because he has speed doesn't mean he can play defense. 

I think Joey can play defense because I actually watched him do it.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's a bit too harsh a criticism.  If you discount the impact the yips had one his throwing his numbers were not bad at third.  I don't think the yips has much to do with a lack of athleticism.

This is the same guy who got moved to first by the Pirates, and in 2015 was a -14 first baseman.  The Orioles looked at that and made him a DH.  I wasn't even thinking about his handful of innings with the O's, it was more like his last season or so with the Pirates at third he graded out as way below average, and was worse at first.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

This is the same guy who got moved to first by the Pirates, and in 2015 was a -14 first baseman.  The Orioles looked at that and made him a DH.  I wasn't even thinking about his handful of innings with the O's, it was more like his last season or so with the Pirates at third he graded out as way below average, and was worse at first.

Sure, that is all fair game and the reason I think it won't work out.

But his problems at third were mostly due to throwing yips.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

He absolutely is a big, lumbering guy now. Back when he could play third, he was noticeably in better shape and of course, younger. Guys who can't play corner infield at exceptabke levels almost definitely can't play outfield either. You have to assume he's going to be very bad at it.

I'd like a few examples of -10 to -20 corner infielders moving to the outfield and being acceptable.  There won't be many samples in your dataset because that's like giving a guy who couldn't put together an IKEA cabinet a job building a house.