The Defense Thread, 2017

[capyy]

Did the runner on 3rd not go home because of Davis rep for going home in plays like that? He should have easily scored.

[backwardsk]

2 minutes ago, capyy said:

Did the runner on 3rd not go home because of Davis rep for going home in plays like that? He should have easily scored.

He botched the read, for sure, but Turner can't run him off. 

[Frobby]

In my opinion, Lind made the correct initial decision.   He's not the tying run and can't afford to be out at the plate.    Turner should have realized the situation and stayed at 2B.     He's going to score on a 2-out base hit regardless of whether he's on 2nd or 3rd.  

[weams]

Chris Davis was star of the game. 

[Emory Eagle]

That Chris Davis tag was a beautiful thing.  Rendon might have a bruise on his shoulder tomorrow. CD is a strong dude. 

[Aristotelian]

How does Rickard not make the play on Wieters ball?

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

How does Rickard not make the play on Wieters ball?

He's not that good at defense.

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's not that good at defense.

Been saying for awhile that Gentry is the superior defender.  Rickard got a bad jump and took a bad route.  Might have to do with the fact that he doesn't play right as often.  

[Aristotelian]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

In my opinion, Lind made the correct initial decision.   He's not the tying run and can't afford to be out at the plate.    Turner should have realized the situation and stayed at 2B.     He's going to score on a 2-out base hit regardless of whether he's on 2nd or 3rd.  

 

10 hours ago, capyy said:

Did the runner on 3rd not go home because of Davis rep for going home in plays like that? He should have easily scored.

I think it was a brain freeze on Lind. Looks like Davis was not even trying to go home. If he did, he would have had to throw across his body. A bad throw could have scored two runs, so I think the Nats have a higher chance of tying the game with Davis throwing home than taking the sure out. It's not clear what the 3B coach is thinking. 

If Lind goes on contact and Davis throws home:

50% chance he is thrown out clean, Nats have 1st and 3rd, 2 out, maybe 15% chance of tying the game with a double or a couple of hits.

40% chance he beats the throw, Nats have 1st and 3rd, 1 out, and a run in. 60% chance they tie with a sac fly or base hit.

10% chance Davis throws the ball away and the Nats score 2 with only 1 out.

The sure out is Davis' obvious play, so going home is Lind's obvious move. Even if Davis goes home, (which is unlikely with the infield back), there are still lots of good things that can happen with Lind running.

Here is play for anyone who wants to watch it.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/nationals-vs-orioles/2017/05/08/490582#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=490582

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, baltfan said:

Been saying for awhile that Gentry is the superior defender.  Rickard got a bad jump and took a bad route.  Might have to do with the fact that he doesn't play right as often.  

He played 141 games in Right in the minors.

[webbrick2010]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He played 141 games in Right in the minors.

Pretty bad scenario

With one out, and up by three you can't be beat for a double. He should have been playing deep enough to catch or at least cut off a ball in the gap

[Beef Supreme]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 

I think it was a brain freeze on Lind. Looks like Davis was not even trying to go home. If he did, he would have had to throw across his body. A bad throw could have scored two runs, so I think the Nats have a higher chance of tying the game with Davis throwing home than taking the sure out. It's not clear what the 3B coach is thinking. 

If Lind goes on contact and Davis throws home:

50% chance he is thrown out clean, Nats have 1st and 3rd, 2 out, maybe 15% chance of tying the game with a double or a couple of hits.

40% chance he beats the throw, Nats have 1st and 3rd, 1 out, and a run in. 60% chance they tie with a sac fly or base hit.

10% chance Davis throws the ball away and the Nats score 2 with only 1 out.

The sure out is Davis' obvious play, so going home is Lind's obvious move. Even if Davis goes home, (which is unlikely with the infield back), there are still lots of good things that can happen with Lind running.

Here is play for anyone who wants to watch it.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/nationals-vs-orioles/2017/05/08/490582#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=490582

The fault is solely Turner's. Where is he going in the first place? He is already in scoring position. But he is not the tying run. There is no advantage to him getting to 3rd in that situation.

[DirtyBird]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If Lind goes on contact and Davis throws home:

50% chance he is thrown out clean, Nats have 1st and 3rd, 2 out, maybe 15% chance of tying the game with a double or a couple of hits.

40% chance he beats the throw, Nats have 1st and 3rd, 1 out, and a run in. 60% chance they tie with a sac fly or base hit.

10% chance Davis throws the ball away and the Nats score 2 with only 1 out.

 

No way is there a 50% chance of Davis throwing him out at home if he is going on contact.

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Beef Supreme said:

The fault is solely Turner's. Where is he going in the first place? He is already in scoring position. But he is not the tying run. There is no advantage to him getting to 3rd in that situation.

Sure there is. It limits the pitches Brach can use and increases the chances of the batter getting a pitch to hit up in the zone.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

The fault is solely Turner's. Where is he going in the first place? He is already in scoring position. But he is not the tying run. There is no advantage to him getting to 3rd in that situation.

I agree Turner made a bad decision.    But there is a marginal advantage to being on 3B with 2 outs rather than on 2B.    A wild pitch, passed ball or balk could result in scoring a run from there.