Manny - Time for an intervention?

[Fuzzball22]

12 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

I would like to know what Manny's avg has been since September of last year. He has not looked right in a very long time.

Since September of last year his average is .232, 62 hits in 267 abs. For comparison Davis is hitting .247, 51 for 231.

Since July 1st of last year Manny is batting .247 with 28 homers and 69 rbis in 121 games. That is more than a slump, that is a trend.

[webbrick2010]

49 minutes ago, Fuzzball22 said:

Since September of last year his average is .232, 62 hits in 267 abs. For comparison Davis is hitting .247, 51 for 231.

Since July 1st of last year Manny is batting .247 with 28 homers and 69 rbis in 121 games. That is more than a slump, that is a trend.

Could Manny be the next Nick Markakis. A player that peaked at age 24 and then ended up a good but not great player?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Could Manny be the next Nick Markakis. A player that peaked at age 24 and then ended up a good but not great player?

No.    He's on pace for a 5 WAR season.    Nick had one 5 WAR season in his career.    I'm not the slightest bit worried about Manny.

That said, is it my imagination or has he opened his stance a bit more this year?    I think he's at his best when he's hitting a lot of balls to the RCF gap, and his current stance doesn't seem conducive to that.    

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

55 minutes ago, Fuzzball22 said:

Since September of last year his average is .232, 62 hits in 267 abs. For comparison Davis is hitting .247, 51 for 231.

Since July 1st of last year Manny is batting .247 with 28 homers and 69 rbis in 121 games. That is more than a slump, that is a trend.

Have to wonder if being surrounded by a lineup of hitters who will hack at anything has had a negative effect on Manny.  Power numbers are there, but he is hitting like Trumbo instead of the player we saw in the 2015 and the first half of 2016.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Fuzzball22 said:

Since September of last year his average is .232, 62 hits in 267 abs. For comparison Davis is hitting .247, 51 for 231.

Since July 1st of last year Manny is batting .247 with 28 homers and 69 rbis in 121 games. That is more than a slump, that is a trend.

I don't see it as a trend, and here's why: from July 1 to Oct. 2 he had a .262 BABIP and only a .042 gap between BA and OBP.   This year he has a .084 gap between BA and OBP but a much lower BABIP.    So, I see last year's issue as more driven by getting overly aggressive on pitches outside the strike zone, this year's issue driven more by bad luck, though I don't assign his low BA entirely to just bad luck.   

And of course, the period you've identified as showing a trend would project out to 37 HR, 92 RBI over a full season.    Hardly a disaster, though of course not the best of which he's capable.   

[webbrick2010]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No.    He's on pace for a 5 WAR season.    Nick had one 5 WAR season in his career.    I'm not the slightest bit worried about Manny.

That said, is it my imagination or has he opened his stance a bit more this year?    I think he's at his best when he's hitting a lot of balls to the RCF gap, and his current stance doesn't seem conducive to that.    

Well I don't know about WAR, I guess your including defense and the metrics never did like Nick

but as far as a hitter Nick had a 136+ .897 OPS in his age 24 season, and is still a career .289 hitter, 112 OPS+

Manny had a 132+ .876 OPS in his age 23 season

He is not likely to post those numbers this year so that will be a yr/yr decline. Will it be a trend? Will Manny ever post a > .900 OPS?

For all the hype his offensive numbers are not elite.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well I don't know about WAR, I guess your including defense and the metrics never did like Nick

but as far as a hitter Nick had a 136+ .897 OPS in his age 24 season, and is still a career .289 hitter, 112 OPS+

Manny had a 132+ .876 OPS in his age 23 season

He is not likely to post those numbers this year so that will be a yr/yr decline. Will it be a trend? Will Manny ever post a > .900 OPS?

For all the hype his offensive numbers are not elite.

That's true.    It's the combination of very good offense and elite defense that makes Manny an elite player.    By offense alone, he's very good, but not great.    And we'll see if he gets better as he ages.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Manny isn't in the line up today due to a sore finger. 

No report on if it was a sore middle finger from holding it up to CB Bucknor all night.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Fuzzball22 said:

Since September of last year his average is .232, 62 hits in 267 abs. For comparison Davis is hitting .247, 51 for 231.

Since July 1st of last year Manny is batting .247 with 28 homers and 69 rbis in 121 games. That is more than a slump, that is a trend.

OMG, what a scary trend.  Over 162 games that would be 37 homers and 92 RBI.  I'll take that every season with some of the best 3rd base defense of all time.  

[TradeAngelos]

19 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well I don't know about WAR, I guess your including defense and the metrics never did like Nick

but as far as a hitter Nick had a 136+ .897 OPS in his age 24 season, and is still a career .289 hitter, 112 OPS+

Manny had a 132+ .876 OPS in his age 23 season

He is not likely to post those numbers this year so that will be a yr/yr decline. Will it be a trend? Will Manny ever post a > .900 OPS?

For all the hype his offensive numbers are not elite.

I tell ya you are highly entertaining if nothing else. The things that go on in your head I will never be able to comprehend. Ever. 

 

[webbrick2010]

26 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Manny isn't in the line up today due to a sore finger. 

No report on if it was a sore middle finger from holding it up to CB Bucknor all night.

yeah I wonder if Buck was trying to avoid a confrontation as Bucknor is behind the plate today

If that had any bearing on Buck's decision it's a shame that Bucknor has that influence. Of course its a union job, so he can suck and no one can do anything

about it.

[LAOSfan]

59 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No.    He's on pace for a 5 WAR season.    Nick had one 5 WAR season in his career.    I'm not the slightest bit worried about Manny.

That said, is it my imagination or has he opened his stance a bit more this year?    I think he's at his best when he's hitting a lot of balls to the RCF gap, and his current stance doesn't seem conducive to that.    

Not sure if it's the open stance causing this, but I have noticed his eyes are looking into left field on an awful lot of his swings.  It was easily noticeable on a few of the swings last night.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Was the 2016, first half Manny a mirage, never to be seen over a full season?  Obviously, not this season but I like to think he's capable of it.  He was a great hitter. Right now he's a slugger.

He had a 132 OPS+ in 2015.  This isn't a case of someone having a hot half out of nowhere.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

His OPS was .944 in his first 83 games last year.  Never said it came out of nowhere.  That was a high water mark though.  Way down since then.

To me a mirage is an illusion.  I don't think it is at all surprising that someone that put up a 132 OPS+ for an entire season followed that up with a OPS+ of 152 for a half a season.  Similarly his 114 OPS+ in the second half of last year isn't surprising.

All of this seems to be within normal variance.  Look at Harper he has gone 111-198-117-220 over the last four seasons.

[ORIOLE33]

Bryce Harper is well on his way to his 2nd MVP. Just saying.

It pains me to say this, but I can't, with a straight face, put Manny and Harper on the same level.