O's Unexpected Impacts in the first Quarter

[wildcard]

If we take a point in time of before Spring Training and compare it to what has actually happened in the first 40 games what are the biggest impacts.

Positive

1) Bundy - Looking at last year we had little reason to project Dylan to be among the leaders in innings pitched and wins.  5-2, 2.97 ERA, 57.2 IP,  8 of 9 quality starts. Huge positive impact on the O's season so far.   The number of innings and what it does to his arm strength is a major element to watch going forward.

2) Trey Mancini - Rookie.  His AAA numbers last year were OK.  Especially vs lefhanded pitching.  775 OPS, 13 homers.  Nothing great.  We knew there was a Harbor Park factor the was hard to quantify.   He was blocked at 1B and DH.  Hadn't played the outfield.  So 7 HR, 22 RBI, 864 OPS and playing a decent left field has to be more than expected.  He looks like he has working himself into being a regular in the lineup. Dan preached over the winter that his guy could hit.  Guess he was right.

3) Castillo - Wieters gone.  Castillo non tendered.   Rep as a decent offensive catcher.  Defense spotty.  Cheaper than Wieters was a big attraction for the O's.   Welington has come up big so far.  With he bat, with the glove, with the arm, with the managing the pitchers.   His all round game is a major surprise when looking at his past.

4) The Shuttle - After Gallado was traded on January 5th the O's had 5 starters. 5 relievers and not much pitching depth.  Wilson and Wright. That was about it.   But Dan added Asher, Ynoa, Verrett, Castro, and Bleier.  All  have been better than Wilson and Wright in the first quarter.  Aquino and Crichton promoted from the minors have had their moments.  Nuno hasn't been that good.    The depth and productions from the shuttle has been a major factor so far and it may get even bigger the rest of the way.

Unexpected negatives

Britton - His loss has been a major problem.

Gausman - Was supposed to be the team ace with Tillman on the DL.

Rickard - Not hitting lefties is leaving a hole.  He is doing the job defensively.

Tillman doesn't belong here because we knew he was hurt early on.  His absence was expected.

There's my list. What's on yours?

 

[Aristotelian]

I expected Kim to get some ABs. His absence is in part explained by Mancini's success, but I did not expect him to disappear completely. If Mancini starts to get exposed it is possible Buck goes back to Kim, but that does not appear to be Plan A at the moment. 

Agreed on the shuttle, particularly Asher. We seem to always have a AAAA guy that finds a role as a longman and gradually works his way into higher leverage situations. One year it was TJ, another it was Brach. Asher seems to be the guy this year. 

I will also say Adam Jones' defense. A couple of miscues last week but otherwise the deep positioning is making a difference and really helping the pitchers. 

Davis has snuck up to .257/.879 despite 0 for 5 last night. I'd say that is a nice incremental but impactful improvement over last year. 

[sportsfan8703]

Best thing about the shuttle pitchers is that they all came through on their starts. No pitcher is posting lights out numbers in AAA. So they're saving it for when it matters. 

Smith has been as good as we could've hoped. Hope he's not hurt. Seems like since we've been playing a ton of LH SP's he doesn't get the recognition he should. 

Asher has been huge out the pen. If he can fill the the Brach role, I think we will see a much better Brach as closer, and a pen overall. 

A rested Givens and Brach both hit 98 last night on the gun. O'day is coming on. Hart got sent out most likely because of overuse. He hasn't pitched in the minors yet. The biggest thing going forward is protecting these arms so they can be a dominant bullpen again.  

[spiritof66]

Negative: Machado's offense and, to some extent, defense

Minor positive: Caleb "The RBI Machine" Joseph's offense

[OFFNY]

29 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

 

Negative: Machado's offense, and to some extent, his defense.

Minor positive: Caleb "The RBI Machine" Joseph's offense.

 

o

 

The offense from the Orioles' catchers position overall (Welington Castillo, Caleb Joseph, and Francisco Pena) has been excellent.

 

7 ) HR's

24 ) RBI's

11 ) Doubles

1 ) Triple

.331 ) Batting Average

.347 ) On-Base Percentage

.540 ) Slugging Percentage

.887 ) OPS

 

o

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I expected Kim to get some ABs. His absence is in part explained by Mancini's success, but I did not expect him to disappear completely. If Mancini starts to get exposed it is possible Buck goes back to Kim, but that does not appear to be Plan A at the moment. 

Agreed on the shuttle, particularly Asher. We seem to always have a AAAA guy that finds a role as a longman and gradually works his way into higher leverage situations. One year it was TJ, another it was Brach. Asher seems to be the guy this year. 

I will also say Adam Jones' defense. A couple of miscues last week but otherwise the deep positioning is making a difference and really helping the pitchers. 

Davis has snuck up to .257/.879 despite 0 for 5 last night. I'd say that is a nice incremental but impactful improvement over last year. 

I expect Davis to hit a lot of homers, drive in a lot of runs and strike out a lot.   That is not unexpected for me.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Best thing about the shuttle pitchers is that they all came through on their starts. No pitcher is posting lights out numbers in AAA. So they're saving it for when it matters. 

Smith has been as good as we could've hoped. Hope he's not hurt. Seems like since we've been playing a ton of LH SP's he doesn't get the recognition he should. 

Asher has been huge out the pen. If he can fill the the Brach role, I think we will see a much better Brach as closer, and a pen overall. 

A rested Givens and Brach both hit 98 last night on the gun. O'day is coming on. Hart got sent out most likely because of overuse. He hasn't pitched in the minors yet. The biggest thing going forward is protecting these arms so they can be a dominant bullpen again.  

I agree that Smith belongs on this list.  I think the level of offense and defense that he has shown is unexpected.  Especially at 34 years old.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

Negative: Machado's offense and, to some extent, defense

Minor positive: Caleb "The RBI Machine" Joseph's offense

Manny averages are down but he is on pace for 36 homers and 92 RBI.  That is pretty much on  pace of what he did last year.

[spiritof66]

He is hitting HRs and driving in runs, and he's taking some walks. But in addition to his .218 BA, Manny is OPSing .735. That's 51st out of 91 AL qualifiers. I expect a lot more of him than that.

[backwardsk]

I think the biggest story of the first quarter is Mancini turning into an everyday left fielder.  That's huge to get a $500K player manning that position through 2019.

[scOtt]

At the quarter pole it's Steinbrenner's Folly by a nose. Followed closely by Balmer Hon. Beaner Baby a distant third.

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

I think the biggest story of the first quarter is Mancini turning into an everyday left fielder.  That's huge to get a $500K player manning that position through 2019.

Still .875ish OPS.

[Cumberbundy]

Asher and Verrett have been huge.

[allquixotic]

Positives: What everyone else said

Negatives: The bullpen is terrible except for our AAAA guys pitching their hearts out hoping to get to the majors. All our "ML" guys are embarrassments. Or hurt and unavailable. Or hurt and available and bad.

[FlipTheBird]

On May 20, 2017 at 11:58 AM, wildcard said:

Manny averages are down but he is on pace for 36 homers and 92 RBI.  That is pretty much on  pace of what he did last year.

But everything else is way down. They don't need him to be Chris Davis 2.0. I have faith he'll start ticking up here in the next month or so, but a .313 OBP and .763 OPS from Machado at this point is firmly below expectations.