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Time to start talking the f word

ChuckS

By ChuckS
in Orioles Talk

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure you bring up Gausman, what about Matusz and Hobgood smart guy?

Drafts are crapshoots, even at the top. Heck, KG is easily the second most-accomplished player (as of today, at least, could always change in the future) in the Top 10 picks of the 2012 draft.

No. 1 is obviously Carlos Correa. The rest of the Top 10? Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, Kyle Zimmer, Albert Almora, Max Fried, Mark Appel, Andrew Heaney, David Dahl.

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JohnD Major Leaguer

JohnD

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4 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Drafts are crapshoots, even at the top. Heck, KG is easily the second most-accomplished player (as of today, at least, could always change in the future) in the Top 10 picks of the 2012 draft.

No. 1 is obviously Carlos Correa. The rest of the Top 10? Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, Kyle Zimmer, Albert Almora, Max Fried, Mark Appel, Andrew Heaney, David Dahl.

Yea but the first round also had the likes of Addison Russell and Corey Seager.

Sure it's a crapshoot, but the Orioles hit far less frequently on a year to year basis. If they decide to tank, tell me how confident you are that they won't miss like they did in 1999 and end up losing 90-95 games with a farm system devoid of any help?

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Drafts are crapshoots, even at the top. Heck, KG is easily the second most-accomplished player (as of today, at least, could always change in the future) in the Top 10 picks of the 2012 draft.

No. 1 is obviously Carlos Correa. The rest of the Top 10? Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, Kyle Zimmer, Albert Almora, Max Fried, Mark Appel, Andrew Heaney, David Dahl.

Yes they are crapshoots but there were a ton of red flags all over Hobgood.  The only think that makes the pick in any way justifiable was that he signed for underslot and they spent a total of 8.8 million that draft (A couple million of which went to overslots that didn't pan out). 

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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17 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Yea but the first round also had the likes of Addison Russell and Corey Seager.

Sure it's a crapshoot, but the Orioles hit far less frequently on a year to year basis. If they decide to tank, tell me how confident you are that they won't miss like they did in 1999 and end up losing 90-95 games with a farm system devoid of any help?

The Orioles weren't the only team to pass on those guys. Was every scouting department just awful?

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes they are crapshoots but there were a ton of red flags all over Hobgood.  The only think that makes the pick in any way justifiable was that he signed for underslot and they spent a total of 8.8 million that draft (A couple million of which went to overslots that didn't pan out). 

Do you have a link to any of the pre-draft concerns on Hobgood? No one was really mocking him to the O's, but he was essentially a consensus first-round pick, and draft sites were calling him a potential front of the rotation arm.

He's also far from the only swing and a miss in that Top 5. Seen Donovan Tate lately? He's going to play quarterback for the Arizona Wildcats this fall.

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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26 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Yea but the first round also had the likes of Addison Russell and Corey Seager.

Sure it's a crapshoot, but the Orioles hit far less frequently on a year to year basis. If they decide to tank, tell me how confident you are that they won't miss like they did in 1999 and end up losing 90-95 games with a farm system devoid of any help?

 

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes they are crapshoots but there were a ton of red flags all over Hobgood.  The only think that makes the pick in any way justifiable was that he signed for underslot and they spent a total of 8.8 million that draft (A couple million of which went to overslots that didn't pan out). 

Further, the FO is rather different than it was in 2009... and especially 1999. Better? Don't know. I have no idea what's really going on behind the scenes. But it's not the same people.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

Do you have a link to any of the pre-draft concerns on Hobgood? No one was really mocking him to the O's, but he was essentially a consensus first-round pick, and draft sites were calling him a potential front of the rotation arm.

He's also far from the only swing and a miss in that Top 5. Seen Donovan Tate lately? He's going to play quarterback for the Arizona Wildcats this fall.

He was a helium guy that was projected to go somewhere around 22.  I have no pre-draft info on him since I hadn't heard of him before the draft.

You go back to that thread and you will see the reaction myself and others had to the pick.

As for front of the rotation, what I remember reading was he might develop into a #3 guy, which is not what I want to hear when discussing the ceiling of a HS pitcher taken in the top five.

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JohnD Major Leaguer

JohnD

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1 hour ago, FlipTheBird said:

The Orioles weren't the only team to pass on those guys. Was every scouting department just awful?

Do you want to compare the Orioles scouting record with other teams?  Because the quantifiable results are not very friendly to our points of view.

Look I'm not against a rebuild.  My point is the current regime doesn't have a great record of finding impact talent to rebuild with.  I'm not wrong here.

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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6 hours ago, JohnD said:

You sure?  Kevin Gausman was a top 5 draft pick.

That puts a lot of faith in a scouting department that has a lot of swings and misses.

Gausman has already almost reached the average career value for a top-5 pick.

 

I think we have drafted well the past few years considering we lost 3 high round picks by signing qualified offer recipients and traded away 3 competitive balance slots.  

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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45 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Do you want to compare the Orioles scouting record with other teams?  Because the quantifiable results are not very friendly to our points of view.

Look I'm not against a rebuild.  My point is the current regime doesn't have a great record of finding impact talent to rebuild with.  I'm not wrong here.

The current regime has never tried to rebuild.

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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45 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Gausman has already almost reached the average career value for a top-5 pick.

 

I think we have drafted well the past few years considering we lost 3 high round picks by signing qualified offer recipients and traded away 3 competitive balance slots.  

It's far too early to evaluate the past few year's drafts.

And, of course, we had Hunter Harvey, who was very well regarded... and he got hurt. You can't control that.

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