Collapse of the Rotation By the Numbers

[Tx Oriole]

20 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm just doubting that Duquette is interested in selling.  I don't think he will care what the O's organization looks like a day after he leaves. 

I wouldn't either. 

[25 Nuggets]

Thanks.  Still, the streak continues - 17 straight games giving up 5 runs or more.  Three behind the all time ML record.

[SteveA]

5 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Thanks.  Still, the streak continues - 17 straight games giving up 5 runs or more.  Three behind the all time ML record.

Elias Sports Bureau uncovered that the 1901 Philadelphia A's also allowed 5 runs in 17 straight games, in the AL's first year.  So we are currently tied for the AL record in that department.  It had previously been said that the AL record was 15 until we broke it Monday.

[TonySoprano]

Updated through today's game.  Since May 10th, the Orioles are 20-39 (.339).  The rotation has only 13 QS in the past 59 games
May 10-July 16
Aquino 1 GS 3 ER, 5.1 IP, 5.07 ERA
Bundy 11 GS 41 ER, 62.1 IP, 5.92 ERA
Miley 13 GS 48 ER, 61.0 IP, 7.08 ERA
Gausman 12 GS 43 ER, 62.0 IP, 6.24 ERA
Jimenez 8 GS 37 ER, 40.0 IP, 8.33 ERA
Tillman 10 GS 43 ER, 44.0 IP, 8.70 ERA
Asher 4 GS 19 ER, 17.1 IP, 9.87 ERA
totals 59 GS, 234 ER, 292 IP, 7.21 ERA

[25 Nuggets]

There's being bad, but good enough to hand the ball to the bullpen.  See years past.

Then, there's this.

[25 Nuggets]

I don't know if anyone's posted this yet so here you go:

Dan Connolly:  O’s rotation on pace to easily be worst in club history — bottom 10 in MLB in last 100 years

We're entering historic territory now.

You know the Orioles rotation is bad. Really, seriously, horrendously bad.

You don’t need me to tell you that.

But I was curious how bad.

And the answer is mind-boggling.

I’ve covered this team for 17 seasons. Only once in that entire time have the Orioles had a rotation ERA that was in the top half of baseball at the end of the year That was in 2014, when the Orioles won the American League East for the first time since 1997.

The 2014 rotation, which had five guys post a 3.65 ERA or lower in 20 or more starts, had a 3.61 cumulative ERA that season, 12th best in the majors.

In every other year, going back to 2000, the Orioles’ rotation ERA has been 21st or worse in the majors.

 

Twice in my tenure, the Orioles have been 30th of 30 in starters’ ERA – in 2011 and 2008.

So, a bad rotation is nothing new in these parts.

Yet this 2017 group, with four starters carrying a 5.40 ERA or higher, could be the standard bearer for terrible pitching units.

No other rotation in Orioles history has been able to do for a complete season what these Orioles are doing right now, 91 games into the year.

There’s a little history in the making here.

When Ubaldo Jimenez allowed six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings Sunday, it pushed the Orioles’ rotation ERA to 6.02 for the season (worst in the majors, of course, eclipsing the awful Cincinnati Reds’ rotation).

The Orioles have never finished a year with a rotation ERA above 5.51; that mark was set by the 2008 club, which had a trio of starters with ERAs over 6.00 in 17 starts or more (Garrett Olson, Brian Burres and Radhames Liz). That club, which also had Steve Trachsel post an 8.39 ERA in 10 games (eight starts), lost 93 under Dave Trembley.

And this rotation has a fighting chance of burying that one in the record books.

In fact, if this rotation gets no better, it will be just the 11th team since 1913 – the extent of baseball-reference.com’s database – to post a 6.00 rotation ERA or higher for a full year.

Only one club since 2000 has had a rotation ERA above 6.00 at season’s end.

Ready for this?

It was the 2003 Texas Rangers, who were managed by Buck Showalter. That was his first year in Texas. That team lost 91 games.

So, it’s possible that this Orioles’ rotation could make franchise history – it’s likely, really – and join an elite group of awful starting pitchers in baseball history.

And it still wouldn’t be the worst Showalter has had to endure in his managerial career.

Now, that’s really something.

[tntoriole]

7 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

I don't know if anyone's posted this yet so here you go:

Dan Connolly:  O’s rotation on pace to easily be worst in club history — bottom 10 in MLB in last 100 years

We're entering historic territory now.

 

 

Somebody should ask Buck if he thinks this group of starters is worse than the 2003 Rangers.  

[TonySoprano]

With a rotation giving up more runs, one of the consequences is that Buck has had to use the BP more.  As expected, the extra workload combined with the extended absence of Britton, has seen the BP ERA go up this year.  O.K., this is the last bunch of numbers I'm going to throw your way for a while. 

Bullpen ERA (league rank)
2014 3.10 (3)
2015 3.21 (3)
2016 3.40 (1)
2017 4.06 (7)

IP Rotation/Bullpen
2014 953.2 / 507.2
2015 915.2 / 519.0
2016 886.0 / 546.0
2017 468.0 / 341.1

IF 2017 continues at this pace, the rotation/BP split will be 833.0 / 608.0.  This means the rotation will provide 50 less innings (-6%) than 2016 and a huge 120 inning drop (-12.67%) since 2014.  2014 had 3 complete games pitched by Tillman, Gausman, and Gonzalez.  Since then, the team has only one CG and it was from........... Ubaldo Jimenez Sept. 5, 2016.

[LookitsPuck]

Just a reminder that Duquette could have picked up:

• Andrew Cashner (1 year, $10m) - 3.54 ERA
• Edinson Volquez (2 year, $22m) - 4.19 ERA
• Ivan Nova (3 year, $26m) - Will require Tommy John surgery....but he was a stud. Most likely was going to stay with Pittsburgh anyway, but still.
• Charlie Morton (2 year, $14m) - 4.06 ERA
• R.A. Dickey (1 year, $8m) - 4.08 ERA
• Scott Feldman (1 year, $2.3m) - 3.94 ERA
• Trevor Cahill (1 year, $1.75m) - 3.14 ERA
• Jhoulys Chacin (1 year, $1.75m) - 4.33 ERA
• Mike Pelfrey (2 year, $16m) - 4.64 ERA

...yada, yada, yada.

Those are all afforodable/cheap deals (they're all making less than Ubaldo Jimenez, btw). Yet Duquette went into this season with an injured Tillman and relied on a full year of Bundy, Gausman improving, Ubaldo and Miley.

[Aristotelian]

How about BB/9:

Miley 5.3

Tillman 4.9

Ubaldo 4.4

Gausman 4.0

Bundy 2.8

Among players with 80+ IP, Miley is the absolute worst in baseball, with Gausman and Ubaldo in the top 10. Orioles starters lead MLB with 216 bases on balls.

They also lead MLB with .292 BAA and 29th of 30 with ERA of 5.91.

I think there is a vicious cycle here. They get behind in the count, forcing them to make hittable pitches. Then they get intimidated from throwing strikes. 

 

[spiritof66]

Someone on this board said that we were coming up on Gausman, Miley and Ubaldo in the rotation. MLB lists Saturday's starter as "TBD." I hope that means "ABU" (Anyone But Ubaldo), even though he's a good guy. I'd like to see Asher get another start. Hell, I'd like to see anyone get the start who might be a part of this team going forward.

Is there any information about Buck's plans for Saturday?

[25 Nuggets]

On 7/17/2017 at 1:11 PM, LookitsPuck said:

Just a reminder that Duquette could have picked up:

• Andrew Cashner (1 year, $10m) - 3.54 ERA
• Edinson Volquez (2 year, $22m) - 4.19 ERA
• Ivan Nova (3 year, $26m) - Will require Tommy John surgery....but he was a stud. Most likely was going to stay with Pittsburgh anyway, but still.
• Charlie Morton (2 year, $14m) - 4.06 ERA
• R.A. Dickey (1 year, $8m) - 4.08 ERA
• Scott Feldman (1 year, $2.3m) - 3.94 ERA
• Trevor Cahill (1 year, $1.75m) - 3.14 ERA
• Jhoulys Chacin (1 year, $1.75m) - 4.33 ERA
• Mike Pelfrey (2 year, $16m) - 4.64 ERA

...yada, yada, yada.

Those are all afforodable/cheap deals (they're all making less than Ubaldo Jimenez, btw). Yet Duquette went into this season with an injured Tillman and relied on a full year of Bundy, Gausman improving, Ubaldo and Miley.

The only one that stands out to me is Cashner.  He was discussed on this board at the time if I recall, as an underachiever with really good stuff.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

The only one that stands out to me is Cashner.  He was discussed on this board at the time if I recall, as an underachiever with really good stuff.

I'd like to see the list of guys we discussed picking up who have been terrible.    I'm sure that list is equally long.    

[25 Nuggets]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'd like to see the list of guys we discussed picking up who have been terrible.    I'm sure that list is equally long.    

You can start with Mike Pelfrey listed above.  I don't think he was really discussed.

I understand the point though -- which is to say the rotation was not properly addressed in the off season.  It just wasn't.  And you know I hated the Miley trade.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

You can start with Mike Pelfrey listed above.  I don't think he was really discussed.

I understand the point though -- which is to say the rotation was not properly addressed in the off season.  It just wasn't.  And you know I hated the Miley trade.

I wasn't a huge Miley fan, but I certainly wasn't expecting to see him collapse as he has over the last two months.   

I think we all knew that starting pitching was a weakness for this team, but I don't think anyone reasonably would have expected them to be as bad as they've been.