Its decision time for the future

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, El Gordo said:

Unlike many here who seem to be certain of the future, I have always found baseball to be difficult to predict. I am willing to wait until after the ASB before I start planning my rebuild retool whatever. Who really  knows where things will be then?

Exactly.  I don't know who is going to be traded in this big fire sale everyone wants.  The impending FA's are playing terrible.  Maybe you get something for Seth Smith or Miley.  Maybe.  Machado, Britton, and Brach aren't going anywhere.  I think we're just going to look to retool the rotation with the money coming off the books and fill SS, RF with cheap vets.  

[El Gordo]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Exactly.  I don't know who is going to be traded in this big fire sale everyone wants.  The impending FA's are playing terrible.  Maybe you get something for Seth Smith or Miley.  Maybe.  Machado, Britton, and Brach aren't going anywhere.  I think we're just going to look to retool the rotation with the money coming off the books and fill SS, RF with cheap vets.  

Jake Arietta is a FA next year. So is Cobb, Darvish and some other interesting types. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Jake Arietta is a FA next year. So is Cobb, Darvish and some other interesting types. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

FA pitchers are not signing with the O's.  They have the choice not to pitch in Camden Yards.

[thezeroes]

8 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Over riding factor is he wants to win and it won't be in Baltimore in the foreseeable future. He will find a team that's got a legitimate shot.

He has another year remaining on his contract so yeah, I will agree he won't be here in the foreseeable future as this team is constructed but that is only for one more year after this.

Knowing how Jones like Baltimore and the community, I do believe he rides out Buck's tenure.  Now if Buck and Dan both leave after this season.  Jones may demand a trade.  That also is right under the Five/Ten rule.

[thezeroes]

1 minute ago, birdwatcher55 said:

He is the first piece you move in a rebuilding effort.

I have seen zero quotes attributing to Jones wanting to be moved hence I do not think they move him.  He has a favorable contract for the production the Orioles are getting from him and as I mentioned he has the Five/Ten status.  He will be an Oriole trough the 2018 season if the management of the Orioles stays the same win or lose.

[Sessh]

11 hours ago, SteveA said:

If you are arguing that the manager is ultimately repsonsible, well of course the buck has to stop somewhere, pun intended.

But if Buck is responsible for us being the worst team in MLB for 42 games, then he is just as responsible for us being the best team in the AL over the previous 850 games.

I don't think the collapse of the team has anything to do with the team being confident in Buck's leadership for 850 straight games over 5+ years, going to bed on May 9 with the best record in baseball, and waking up on May 10 and no longer being confident in his leadership anymore. 

Mmm, that is what I just said. If he is responsible for the successes, he is also equally responsible for the failures. The team has been throwing the ball around the infield all season. Throwing to guys that aren't there, throwing over their heads, throwing it into right/center field. It's happened numerous times this season and no, I don't think this started on May 10th. I think it started when we lost the wild card game last year. The Orioles really weren't that good in April as much as the other teams were off to slow starts. The Orioles were hot out of the gate last year as well.

I know you keep asking for evidence you know is impossible to find.. at least not now. No one is going to come out and say things like that even if they are true. If you have a headache, you can't prove it to anyone else, but you feel the pain so you KNOW it's true. Facts can be known without being able to show "evidence" and that's the problem with relying too heavy on evidence. Not every truth has evidence to find and you have to rely on your own observational skills and abstract thought/theory. The dots won't always be connected for you and things won't always be presented in big, neon letters over the boardwalk and waiting for such things almost always leaves one behind much like the Orioles FO who don't even see it then.

Sure, I may be wrong and that fact is never lost on me, but this team is not playing consistently well in any aspect of the game with a few exceptions. This team has a real problem with leadership and that buck starts with Buck. He failed this team as a leader when it mattered most last year and I believe, without question, that it shook the team's confidence and I don't see why that would come as any surprise to anyone if true. If it was true, this is exactly what I'd expect to see and so that is what I will maintain until I see something significant that points in another direction.

[Lucky_13]

11 hours ago, Cumberbundy said:

We need 3 starters. We can't rebuild & compete with what Boston & NY have in 2 years imo ...and perhaps not Toronto.

I disagree. I think you can get at least two starters from the returns in trades for Britton and Machado. Pair them with Bundy and Gausmen. Then find a veteran to round out the rotation. By 2019 the team should know if Mullins, Hays, and maybe Sisco can make up the outfield with Mancini. The right side of the infield is set with Schoop and Davis. Hopefully we can fill out the left side with free agents and trades. 

As far competing with the Red Sox and Yankees goes, we never are supposed to compete with them on paper. So I'm not concerned about that.

[Frobby]

On 6/23/2017 at 11:48 PM, SteveA said:

I don't think the collapse of the team has anything to do with the team being confident in Buck's leadership for 850 straight games over 5+ years, going to bed on May 9 with the best record in baseball, and waking up on May 10 and no longer being confident in his leadership anymore. 

Sesssh has an anti-Buck agenda so the idea that the team has quit on Buck, or that he's lost their confidence, fits his narrative.    It's fine with me if someone holds the opinion that Buck isn't a good enough manager (though I disagree), but the idea that the team has quit on him is just silly.   The starting pitching has been taking us out of too many games, and it's no more complicated than that.    

[pastorfan]

On 6/23/2017 at 8:26 AM, wildcard said:

Its pretty obvious that without better starting pitching the O's are going nowhere.  Its also obvious that there is no starting pitching in the upper minors that is going to help the starting pitching. There are about 5 week before the trade deadline.  This time should be used to determine who can and should be signed long term and who should be traded to get starting pitching.

1) Britton - Should be back the first week on July.  If he prove healthy he should be traded if Boras is intent on follow his normal path on taking Britton to Free Agency.   His value should be high with two pennant races of value left for anyone that acquires him. Acquiring starting pitching should be the focus on any Britton trade.

2) Buck and Dan - O's ownership should determine if they are going to extend both managers in the next month.   Any long term negotiation with Manny or any other player will be made easier if it is known whether Buck and Dan will stay past 2018.

3) Manny - The O's should open serious negotiation with Manny's agent now.   The O's need to determine what kind on a contract will be required to sign him long term.   If there is a contract that the O's can afford they should go ahead and sign him now.   If not they should make him available for trade before the deadline. It will take a lot to acquire Manny so the O's need to determine if a deadline trade nets more value than an off season deal if he can't be signed by the O's.

4) Castillo -  The O's should determine in the next 5 weeks if they are going to extend him.  He can walk after the season ends.   Sisco is not controlling the running game at Norfolk.  He does not look like a starting catcher for that reason right now.   So it would be desirable to sign Castillo for two more years if possible.  If they can't he should be traded prior to the deadline.

5) Smith - Is hitting well and may help a contender.  If the O's can get a decent prospect for him he should be traded.  He is 34.  The O's have several up and coming outfielders in AA and A ball that could be in the majors next year.   Getting a prospect for Smith is more important than keeping him through this season or extending him.

 6) Kim - If he can bring back a good prospect trade him.

I would not trade Brach, Davis, Trumbo, O'Day or Jones now.   The above 6 items are more than enough to accomplish prior to the deadline. The same goes for extensions to Schoop or anyone else.   I would wait to see what the O's can acquire and what the impact is on the payroll before making other moves.

 

Great insights. I agree. Though if Boras is willing to do a deal for Brittan I would be scared off, because then you know he has a serious arm injury. I'd like to see them lock Manny and Schoop up with the plan of putting Schoop at 3B and Manny at SS next year. So try to get the future 2B in a trade along with some pitching and a starting OF. Then we can go from there. 

[Ruzious]

Now is such a good opportunity to make a trade with the Nats - they're 2 bullpen arms away from being a really great team, and the O's have Brach, Britton, Givens... all valuable pieces.  Meanwhile the Nats don't just have Robles.  In fact, forget Robles - get Soto - an 18 year old on his 3rd minor league level and still OPSing .950 for his career.  And forget Fedde - they likely feel they need to keep their top pitching prospect and Robles.  Psychologically, that makes it easier for them to trade Soto and Kieboom - and both are STUD teenaged prospects.  Sheldon Neuse is a very solid 3rd base prospect.  Get Soto and either Kieboom or Neuse and all of a sudden, the O's are set up well for the future - as long as they buy the pitching.  An OF of Mullens, Hays, and Soto (good RF arm)... wow.  Infield of Mancini, Schoop, Manny (?), and either Kieboom ro Neuse... power everywhere.  I'd like to see Castillo stay to split the catching with Sisco.  Geebus, I didn't even mention Mountcastle.  I know he can play DH.          

[Ruzious]

With all those young guys filling starting spots, you can afford to sign Manny.  Otherwise... ya probably can't.  Trade Brach and a secondary prospect to Washington now.  That gives you time to consider what you want to do with Britton.        

[brianod]

On 6/23/2017 at 11:03 PM, brianod said:

While I agree this team is in a crisis and needs dramatic change, all the suggestions so far are lame and do nothing to correct the problem. Trade our best players for prospects who may or may not turn out?  In baseball and politics, it's all about the money.  The Angelos family bought this team for 173 million and it is now worth 1 billion dollars. Extend Manny, Schoop and Britton.  Announce to baseball that we may suck this year but we aren't going away. You guys want to compete? Or do you want to rely on miracles while our owners spend half the money of our rivals? I think DD's time has come and gone.  I love Buck.  After the above moves, I'd get a GM who can make impact signings and keep Buck. And, please, please, please pour money into our minor leagues and scouting and player development.  Because, that is where long term success comes from. For too long we have been operated like a mom and pop shop.  You want to spend 5 million at the trade deadline?  Well, you better cut someone making 2 million.  Please, that's embarrassing. Those of us that shell out big money for season tickets deserve better.

So, the real answer, whether any of you choose to admit it to yourself or not is that this team needs a dramatic cash infusion and that cash needs to be spent wisely, not thrown around.

 

Well, I started a post and it got bumped to another. That often happens if you practice straight talk that is inconvenient for the moderators to hear.  So be it. So, after it was buried in another post, no-one responded. I asked myself if that was because my post had no merit?  Or is that because those on the post it got bumped to were too busy bickering to notice? So, I'll repeat what I said.

For all of you too busy to notice, this is the key question for the next ten years. There are only two avenues open, spend a lot of money or rebuild. DD has shown horrible talent evaluation lately.  He has also failed on the one crucial thing he told us he was going to do, which is build the farm.  So, no matter which avenue you choose, hopefully we can all agree that DD had to go. Anyone who disagrees with this should take a look at the current pitching staff and the pitchers we have given away or not resigned. Now, I'm thankful for DD's tenure, I appreciate the fact that we have been competitive during his time.  But, we have the worst staff in baseball and we have no prospects to support that staff.  Bottom line, he's gotta go because he has failed to do the one thing that can make this franchise competitive long term.

So, now that I have stated the obvious, we can all debate on which way to go.  When I say we need to spend equity, I don't do so lightly. But, if we don't extend Manny, we don't extend Schoop and we don't resign Britton, what does the future look like?  To me,it looks a lot like 2002 where we go into an abyss. A failed talent evaluation staff supported by a low budget.

No matter what, the next big signing should be a stud GM.  Trust in that guy to recommend a rebuild or a money infusion. Anyone trust DD to do that? Also, if we rebuild, Buck aint gonna stay.  That's another part of this equation.

So, have at it.  Maybe I'm wrong and this isn't important and not worth a new thread.  Or maybe there are others that recognize this is the crucial decision facing this franchise and this is the crucial time to make it.

 

[TradeAngelos]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Reality check.   Get a stud talent evaluator as the GM?     This is the team whose owner overruled Pat Gillick,  had the first two headed GM, couldn't get the guy from Toronto to take his first shot at being a GM, and only took Duquette because Duquette was desperate enough to accept whatever restrictions came with the job.

Spend more money?   Haha.

You said there are two options.  Spend or rebuild?     The Orioles will do neither so their must be a third option.

Amen.

[24fps]

2 hours ago, brianod said:

Well, I started a post and it got bumped to another. That often happens if you practice straight talk that is inconvenient for the moderators to hear.  So be it. So, after it was buried in another post, no-one responded. I asked myself if that was because my post had no merit?  Or is that because those on the post it got bumped to were too busy bickering to notice? So, I'll repeat what I said.

For all of you too busy to notice, this is the key question for the next ten years. There are only two avenues open, spend a lot of money or rebuild. DD has shown horrible talent evaluation lately.  He has also failed on the one crucial thing he told us he was going to do, which is build the farm.  So, no matter which avenue you choose, hopefully we can all agree that DD had to go. Anyone who disagrees with this should take a look at the current pitching staff and the pitchers we have given away or not resigned. Now, I'm thankful for DD's tenure, I appreciate the fact that we have been competitive during his time.  But, we have the worst staff in baseball and we have no prospects to support that staff.  Bottom line, he's gotta go because he has failed to do the one thing that can make this franchise competitive long term.

So, now that I have stated the obvious, we can all debate on which way to go.  When I say we need to spend equity, I don't do so lightly. But, if we don't extend Manny, we don't extend Schoop and we don't resign Britton, what does the future look like?  To me,it looks a lot like 2002 where we go into an abyss. A failed talent evaluation staff supported by a low budget.

No matter what, the next big signing should be a stud GM.  Trust in that guy to recommend a rebuild or a money infusion. Anyone trust DD to do that? Also, if we rebuild, Buck aint gonna stay.  That's another part of this equation.

So, have at it.  Maybe I'm wrong and this isn't important and not worth a new thread.  Or maybe there are others that recognize this is the crucial decision facing this franchise and this is the crucial time to make it.

 

Should we hire a GM that has an imagination limited to two avenues?  It would certainly simplify message board analysis.

[El Gordo]

58 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Amen.

What he said.